4 ms·

Conventionally, I always figured if one were that smart they would realise crime wasn't a good cost-benefit balance in the first place.

rolph 7y ago
to quote bruce waynes butler alfred: "Some men just want to see the world burn."
saagarjha 7y ago
I'm sure there's always the possibility of arbitrage, since the payout from crime changes constantly and laws (and law enforcement) struggle to keep up.
AllanHoustonSt 7y ago
If we're talking purely financial cost benefit considerations I'm not sure (and also curious) if that's actually true.
bytematic 7y ago
The brain is a crazy thing. People can be smart and still make terrible decisions, whether that be caused by mental illness, emotions, etc.
rabidrat 7y ago
or they would find the crimes with a great cost-benefit and become billionaires.
- api 7y ago
  "When an idiot wants to rob a bank, they get a gun and a ski mask. When a smart person wants to rob a bank, first they get a banking license..."
  - quickthrower2 7y ago
    A really smart person robs the tax payer, using a bank.
duxup 7y ago
I wish I hadn't put off doing my taxes until a few days ago ... but I did. I don't go committing crimes but I am hardly good at making logical decisions. I wish I was better.
hangonhn 7y ago
Except for white collar crimes. Someone actually did the math on this and it's actually positive for white collar crimes and often those people can have good lawyers and punishment for white collar crimes don't often carry huge sentences. The combination of a high payout plus good lawyers and light punishment makes white collar crimes net positive in terms of risk vs. reward.
- joncrane 7y ago
  I hate to say this but I found the same when I studied this issue in my business ethics class in grad school (MBA). I wrote my end of term paper on this exact issue. What it boils down to is that, on average, white collar criminals can expect to go home to $1 million per year of time actually served behind bars. It made me wonder what the expected outcome of the class was.
  - dkarras 7y ago
    How does it generally work? Surely the money you steal / embezzle will be taken from you when you get caught no?
    - CydeWeys 7y ago
      Many people don't get caught.
      - dkarras 7y ago
        But the post specifically compares the payout with number of years served.
        Zarel 7y ago
        Another poster mentions that you can transfer/spend it in a way that's difficult to recover: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21275859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21275859 But even if that wasn't true, you could still compare expected value. For instance, if you had an 80% chance of successfully embezzling $8 million without getting caught, and a 20% chance of serving 2 years of jail, this would translate to an expected value of $1 million per year served.
quickthrower2 7y ago
Assuming you are not poor.
snagglegaggle 7y ago
Why crime is so attractive I think has evolutionary basis: sure, many will fail, but those that succeed will have increased their attractiveness to mates a great deal. For a similar reason you see a lot of variance in the behavior and capabilities of men. There are also likely a lot of people who get out before they are caught, after making a modest amount of money.

rolph 7y ago

to quote bruce waynes butler alfred: "Some men just want to see the world burn."

saagarjha 7y ago

I'm sure there's always the possibility of arbitrage, since the payout from crime changes constantly and laws (and law enforcement) struggle to keep up.

AllanHoustonSt 7y ago

If we're talking purely financial cost benefit considerations I'm not sure (and also curious) if that's actually true.

bytematic 7y ago

The brain is a crazy thing. People can be smart and still make terrible decisions, whether that be caused by mental illness, emotions, etc.

rabidrat 7y ago

or they would find the crimes with a great cost-benefit and become billionaires.

api 7y ago
"When an idiot wants to rob a bank, they get a gun and a ski mask. When a smart person wants to rob a bank, first they get a banking license..."
- quickthrower2 7y ago
  A really smart person robs the tax payer, using a bank.

duxup 7y ago

I wish I hadn't put off doing my taxes until a few days ago ... but I did. I don't go committing crimes but I am hardly good at making logical decisions. I wish I was better.

hangonhn 7y ago

Except for white collar crimes. Someone actually did the math on this and it's actually positive for white collar crimes and often those people can have good lawyers and punishment for white collar crimes don't often carry huge sentences. The combination of a high payout plus good lawyers and light punishment makes white collar crimes net positive in terms of risk vs. reward.

joncrane 7y ago
I hate to say this but I found the same when I studied this issue in my business ethics class in grad school (MBA). I wrote my end of term paper on this exact issue. What it boils down to is that, on average, white collar criminals can expect to go home to $1 million per year of time actually served behind bars. It made me wonder what the expected outcome of the class was.
- dkarras 7y ago
  How does it generally work? Surely the money you steal / embezzle will be taken from you when you get caught no?
  - CydeWeys 7y ago
    Many people don't get caught.
    - dkarras 7y ago
      But the post specifically compares the payout with number of years served.
      - Zarel 7y ago
        Another poster mentions that you can transfer/spend it in a way that's difficult to recover: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21275859 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21275859 But even if that wasn't true, you could still compare expected value. For instance, if you had an 80% chance of successfully embezzling $8 million without getting caught, and a 20% chance of serving 2 years of jail, this would translate to an expected value of $1 million per year served.

quickthrower2 7y ago

Assuming you are not poor.

snagglegaggle 7y ago

Why crime is so attractive I think has evolutionary basis: sure, many will fail, but those that succeed will have increased their attractiveness to mates a great deal. For a similar reason you see a lot of variance in the behavior and capabilities of men. There are also likely a lot of people who get out before they are caught, after making a modest amount of money.