5 ms·

Are you claiming that women are in control of whether or not they get raped?

by xmprt 7y ago

DoreenMichele 7y ago
I'm claiming that a long track record of success is probably not pure luck. Occam's Razor. One factor in me not being raped while homeless was that I was usually not alone. There is safety in numbers.
- ALittleLight 7y ago
  The city in the US with the highest rape rate is Anchorage Alaska with 200 rapes per hundred thousand people. Without taking into account any of many relevant complications, that's a 0.2% chance to get raped annually, or a 99.8% chance of not getting raped. Suppose a woman went 6 years in Anchorage. There's a 99.8% ^ 6 chance of her not getting raped. 98.8% chance in other words. Would a woman who had not been raped after 6 years in Anchorage persuade you that Anchorage wasn't a more dangerous place than most? Your comment here is hard to grasp given your previous comment. Mexico has a significantly higher crime rate than the US. As you acknowledge, being by yourself makes you more vulnerable. Being young makes you more vulnerable. A young girl hitchhiking by herself in Mexico is incredibly vulnerable. What are the odds that she will be raped or murdered over a few months of traveling? They may be 10 or 20%. They may be higher! The fact that a girl had the most likely outcome happen doesn't prove or suggest anything. You can play Russian Roulette and you'll have a 5/6 chance of surviving. That doesn't mean it's a good idea to play. If someone plays three rounds, that doesn't make it safe. I hope you'd agree that members of vulnerable populations should take extra precautions to mitigate their vulnerability. As per your own example, staying with other people in dangerous times and places.
  - DoreenMichele 7y ago
    Your statistical gymnastics is a case of how to lie with statistics. Most rapes aren't cases of random strangers grabbing you randomly off the street. That's not how that works. Most rape victims know their rapists. It's usually a social acquaintance of some sort. Most college campus rapes or date rapes involve alcohol. There is this narrative that we can't try to talk about what women can effectively do to protect themselves because that would be blaming the victim. But if you tell someone to lock your door to make it harder for someone to rob you, we don't have the same problem with such advice. We don't get all up in arms about how robbers just need to keep their hands to themselves and advice to protect your belongings is somehow victim blaming.
    - ALittleLight 7y ago
      I don't really know what we're arguing about at this point so I'm tapping out. I agree that it's good and not victim blaming to offer advice to people, regardless of their gender, as to how they can live safer lives. I agree that, in the US, most victims know their attacker. That doesn't mean it's safe for young women to hitchhiker in Mexico though. Similarly, you are vastly more likely to be killed by your own gun than any random gun out there. That doesn't mean you have nothing to worry about if some random stranger points a gun at you.
      - DoreenMichele 7y ago
        That doesn't mean it's safe for young women to hitchhiker in Mexico though. I never claimed what you are seemingly rebutting at all. I never said anything of the sort whatsoever. I only suggested that this particular woman probably wasn't simply lucky. She was probably doing some things right that helped keep her safe. It's an entirely different idea. It's the difference between saying "Lion tamers have lion taming skills and aren't merely lucky that they usually survive their shows." Versus "Because lion tamers exist, random people with zero lion taming skills are equally safe being locked in a cage with a lion."
        partyboat1586 7y ago
        Lion tamers are also regularly killed and or maimed by their lions.
        DoreenMichele 7y ago
        The word usually in that sentence admits to that outcome. Nowhere have I claimed any of this is "bullet proof." Just that consistent positive outcomes suggest an element of skill and knowledge that claims of pure luck erroneously dismiss as not existing at all.
        partyboat1586 7y ago
  - fulafel 7y ago
    Given a long enough time in risky circumstances (vs a few months of single-mode behaviour, hitchhiking, in your example) the experience would start to get pretty compelling. I think the cited six years is probably good enough to get a good feel for the risk level, especially since you presumably hear about other incidents from peers and develop an intuition for risky situations. edit: data tangent - if your Anchorage stats were about reported cases, the averages would need correcting for underreporting.

Are you claiming that women are in control of whether or not they get raped?

by xmprt 7y ago

Are you claiming that women are in control of whether or not they get raped?

I'm claiming that a long track record of success is probably not pure luck. Occam's Razor. One factor in me not being raped while homeless was that I was usually not alone. There is safety in numbers.

ALittleLight 7y ago
The city in the US with the highest rape rate is Anchorage Alaska with 200 rapes per hundred thousand people. Without taking into account any of many relevant complications, that's a 0.2% chance to get raped annually, or a 99.8% chance of not getting raped. Suppose a woman went 6 years in Anchorage. There's a 99.8% ^ 6 chance of her not getting raped. 98.8% chance in other words. Would a woman who had not been raped after 6 years in Anchorage persuade you that Anchorage wasn't a more dangerous place than most? Your comment here is hard to grasp given your previous comment. Mexico has a significantly higher crime rate than the US. As you acknowledge, being by yourself makes you more vulnerable. Being young makes you more vulnerable. A young girl hitchhiking by herself in Mexico is incredibly vulnerable. What are the odds that she will be raped or murdered over a few months of traveling? They may be 10 or 20%. They may be higher! The fact that a girl had the most likely outcome happen doesn't prove or suggest anything. You can play Russian Roulette and you'll have a 5/6 chance of surviving. That doesn't mean it's a good idea to play. If someone plays three rounds, that doesn't make it safe. I hope you'd agree that members of vulnerable populations should take extra precautions to mitigate their vulnerability. As per your own example, staying with other people in dangerous times and places.
- DoreenMichele 7y ago
  Your statistical gymnastics is a case of how to lie with statistics. Most rapes aren't cases of random strangers grabbing you randomly off the street. That's not how that works. Most rape victims know their rapists. It's usually a social acquaintance of some sort. Most college campus rapes or date rapes involve alcohol. There is this narrative that we can't try to talk about what women can effectively do to protect themselves because that would be blaming the victim. But if you tell someone to lock your door to make it harder for someone to rob you, we don't have the same problem with such advice. We don't get all up in arms about how robbers just need to keep their hands to themselves and advice to protect your belongings is somehow victim blaming.
  - ALittleLight 7y ago
    I don't really know what we're arguing about at this point so I'm tapping out. I agree that it's good and not victim blaming to offer advice to people, regardless of their gender, as to how they can live safer lives. I agree that, in the US, most victims know their attacker. That doesn't mean it's safe for young women to hitchhiker in Mexico though. Similarly, you are vastly more likely to be killed by your own gun than any random gun out there. That doesn't mean you have nothing to worry about if some random stranger points a gun at you.
    - DoreenMichele 7y ago
      That doesn't mean it's safe for young women to hitchhiker in Mexico though. I never claimed what you are seemingly rebutting at all. I never said anything of the sort whatsoever. I only suggested that this particular woman probably wasn't simply lucky. She was probably doing some things right that helped keep her safe. It's an entirely different idea. It's the difference between saying "Lion tamers have lion taming skills and aren't merely lucky that they usually survive their shows." Versus "Because lion tamers exist, random people with zero lion taming skills are equally safe being locked in a cage with a lion."
      - partyboat1586 7y ago
        Lion tamers are also regularly killed and or maimed by their lions.
        DoreenMichele 7y ago
        The word usually in that sentence admits to that outcome. Nowhere have I claimed any of this is "bullet proof." Just that consistent positive outcomes suggest an element of skill and knowledge that claims of pure luck erroneously dismiss as not existing at all.
        partyboat1586 7y ago
- fulafel 7y ago
  Given a long enough time in risky circumstances (vs a few months of single-mode behaviour, hitchhiking, in your example) the experience would start to get pretty compelling. I think the cited six years is probably good enough to get a good feel for the risk level, especially since you presumably hear about other incidents from peers and develop an intuition for risky situations. edit: data tangent - if your Anchorage stats were about reported cases, the averages would need correcting for underreporting.