10 ms·
What factories? Everyone already has or currently is moving manufacturing operations from China to Viet Nam or India. 5 more years and the only factories Chin
by missosoup 7y ago
What factories?
Everyone already has or currently is moving manufacturing operations from China to Viet Nam or India.
5 more years and the only factories China will have are going to be domestic.
- echelon 7y agoIf we're going to repeat the same cycle with Vietnam and India, we'd do well to encourage democracy this go-around. If we elevate authoritarian countries to our level, democracy may be in for a rough future. We should be learning a lot from the China situation. Modern China proves that authoritarian capitalism works and that you don't need freedom or liberty for your citizens. And that's incredibly scary. Imagine if that meme spreads to democratic countries... We need to be handling this situation with urgency. As bad and as pressing an issue as climate change is, this is much more terrifying.
- whatshisface 7y agoIndia actually has a functioning democracy. Many Indian intellectuals are unhappy with their current PM, but plenty of American intellectuals are unhappy with their president, and America will still have an election next year (the point being, the system still works even if your favorite person doesn't get elected, which is stronger evidence of systemic health than the system working when your favorite person does get elected). I have a lot of hope for their future. Vietnam is controlled by a one-party system, but even they are not as bad as China. (They may become as bad as China, but at least it's another roll of the dice, or for the people who live there another chance to act.)
- selimthegrim 7y agoRight to internet access was recently construed as fundamental under articles 21 and 21 A of the constitution of India by Kerala high court but is currently not extended to all “integral parts of India” https://thewire.in/government/home-ministry-believes-in-internet-ban-mass-detention-but-not-in-paperwork https://thewire.in/government/home-ministry-believes-in-inte...
- treis 7y ago>India actually has a functioning democracy. Democracy or not what they're doing in Kashmir is worse that what China is doing in Hong Kong.
- gfdgsgaagrhstrs 7y agoYeah seriously... The HK situation is not good, but they haven't enforced a police state yet. People here lack so much perspective on geopolitical issues.
- marcosdumay 7y ago> Modern China proves that authoritarian capitalism works For some definition of "works". China has recently (2017) became richer than Brazil, what is a feat, but well, Brazil isn't a liberal democratic paradise and whatever democracy we have is very recent. All the stable democratic countries are much richer than China.
- mistermann 7y ago> All the stable democratic countries are much richer than China. They had a substantial headstart, China is really only about two decades into this, and they're just getting warmed up. If things continue more or less along the same path, and I see little to expect otherwise (China only gets stronger, it's citizens more allegiant) Let's see where they are 10, 20 years from now. Especially now that they are actively exploiting one of the West's biggest Achilles heels: our unique combination of greed + the sense of individual freedom + corporate control of the economy. China is demonstrating how easily they can control Western corporations, and in turn individual people. What percentage of the American public works for a corporation with interests in China? This control may not be that sophisticated yet, but give them some time. And what plausible recourse do we have? - Government sanctions? The trade abuses were far more obvious than this, and look what a shitstorm of half-informed but hyper-emotional arguing that turned into. - Corporations recognizing they are strategically putting themselves into a situation that threatens their long term existence, or, thinking beyond a 5 year window? It seems unlikely. - Western society collectively recognizing there is a genuine existential threat and banding together to do something about it? We can't even get people on forums to even remotely agree, so seems unlikely. It's going to take time, but my hunch is this capability will be a big part of China's eventual checkmate on the West. And all executed within a timeframe of < 50 years. History in the making.
- marcosdumay 7y agoYou are speculating the phenomenon will go on for long, on a thread about how China is proof that the phenomenon can go on for long. Speculation is not proof.
- pbourke 7y ago> We need to be handling this situation with urgency. We tried to - it was called the Trans Pacific Partnership. It included Vietnam. One of the Trump administration’s first acts was to kill it.
- barnesto 7y agoIt’s called winning and was the the right call. See bilat deals with Japan and South Korea. And soon with India and the U.K. Oh, don’t forget about USMCA that Congress needs to approve instead of holding back for politics.
- TurkishPoptart 7y agoWhat, a piece of crappy legislation that would allow corporations to sue sovereign states? That is not going to help this problem in our culture.
- orasis 7y agoBe careful. We don’t have a great track record “encouraging democracy” with Iraq and Afghanistan.
- netsharc 7y ago> If we're going to repeat the same cycle with Vietnam and India, we'd do well to encourage democracy this go-around. I don't think the idea is to introduce democracy, because it's cheaper if the people making our consumer goods had less rights. It was like that with the original banana republics, and it's like that now. Sure we the people may want democracy and we may elect people who want to spread democracy (like Obama or Merkel bringing up the topic of human rights in talks with China) but corporations run the world. And we the people prefer having cheap phones and clothes rather than pay the "made in a democratic country" tax. You bring up climate change, well, maybe the Chinese government was wondering if they could keep up their oppression, but maybe they also think, "well, just 30 more years, and the world's going to end after that anyway."
- joelx 7y agoI think you're right that people are making a choice to get cheaper goods over promoting democracy. I think we need to make this choice more visible and strongly push companies and individuals to make choices that support democracy.
- VRay 7y ago> "well, just 30 more years, and the world's going to end after that anyway." I don't think that kind of exaggeration is productive. People have been saying that for decades, and now climate change deniers are using it as evidence for the whole thing being overblown, even though we're already suffering from the effects of climate change and they're getting progressively worse It's not technically going to be the end of the world, it'll just be a much crappier world for most of the people living on it
- testACCT321 7y agoDemocracy is failing. People have realized that votes are largely based on demographics, which are driven by immigration and birthrates. In short, democracy is ethnic warfare. Why would you want that?
- lone_haxx0r 7y agoChina isn't really capitalist. Industrialized sounds like a better adjective to me. If it was really capitalist, it would have stopped being cheap long ago.
- freeopinion 7y agoHow intriguing that "we" automatically move the cycle to Vietnam and India. If "we" means USA, why not just move the cycle into the USA. If "we" is Germany or Australia or Norway, why not move the cycle into your own borders? One obvious reason is cost. Why is it so much cheaper to manufacture in China or Vietnam? 1. Labor costs. Democracy can lead to safer, healthier, more expensive working conditions. 2. Environmental protections. Democracy can lead to safer, healthier, more sustainable, more expensive pollution controls. If you want to push production out of China and into Malaysia or Vietnam or wherever instead of into your own backyard, I question your real commitment to democracy or human rights. I am as guilty as anybody else. I want to purchase $2 SOCs and $0.01 resistors for my hobby. I don't buy them from Texas because anything produced in Texas is too expensive. (Read: more expensive than alternatives.) I buy from some place with undrinkable water, unbreathable air, and children missing fingers and eyes. If you show me pictures of those children I might try to pay a tiny bit more (but only a tiny bit) to buy from some place that doesn't yet have reporters taking pictures. The truth is that I don't know anybody producing MCU in Australia or USA or Norway. I'm not sure it's even possible with the restrictions those governments impose. If it is possible to do it, it is not practical. If I support a government that makes it that difficult to impossible to manufacture domestically in an irresponsible manner--and I do whole-heartedly support such governments--why am I willing to support manufacturers outside those requirements? Why do I drive misbehavior out of my neighborhood and embrace it in other neighborhoods? Conversely, if you and I are willing to accept the behavior of manufacturers in Thailand or Laos, shouldn't we allow that same behavior from manufacturers in our own backyards?
- notebookstack 7y agoI actually think that everybody has had unrealistic expectations about the speed of democratization in China. That doesn't mean that it won't yet happen. If you look at the recent US-led debacles in Iraq and Afghanistan, or even the results of all the Arab Spring protests, I think it's fairly obvious that you can't just take a people with no background and hard-fought experience in governing themselves through elections and say poof, you're good. The west tends to forget this - but you have the legacy of Greece and Rome from thousands of years in the past; The Magna Carta started to limit monarchial authority in England beginning in 1215; The French had not one but a whole series of revolutions from the late 1700's through the 1800's. And yet, in between, there were decades and centuries of backslides into fiefdoms and dictatorships and absolute monarchies; even when progress was made, it was incremental - giving political say first to landed aristocracy and clergy, then men, then women. Human progress almost never goes in a straight line, and sometimes, slow and steady and making sure you build a base of support in the general population for the change you're making can work better than monumental sudden changes the populace may not be ready for (look at the different paths, for instance, the acceptance of gay rights and abortion have taken in the US). Also, keep in mind that China's growth has really only taken off since the mid-to-late 90's. That's less than one generation. Look at the path that comparable economies in Asia took who developed much earlier. Korea's economic miracle took off in 1960, but it was basically ruled by military dictatorships in all but name until 1987. Taiwan saw it's main burst of economic growth in the 60's and 70's, but it was also ruled as a dictatorship by the KMT since they lost the Chinese Civil War. In fact, the first opposition party was not formed until 1986, and martial law, which had been in effect since 1949, was not lifted until 1987, a year before Chiang Ching-kuo, Chiang Kai Shek's son and successor, passed away. Singapore's government all during its economic miracle was famously authoritarian. China's the most populous countries on this planet. I just tend to think that things like this take time, that in fact, sometimes it works out a little better with a certain base level in the population at large. Also, overwhelming consensus in the foreign policy establishment always seems to be wrong - they were wrong in the 90's about the path and speed that liberalization would occur, and now that everyone concurs that it will never happen....well, I tend to think that they might be wrong there too.
- travisgriggs 7y agoI've wondered about this. Are there sourceable numbers in this? Is it the case that a couple newsworthy departures are giving the impression that everyone's leaving? Or is it the case that these are exceptions in the statistical noise?
- dba7dba 7y agoJust few days HN had a thread where samsung moved its last phone factory from China to Vietnam.
- therealdrag0 7y agoAnecdote: My friends at Apple and Tesla are very much still building up factories in China.
- iamaelephant 7y agoTesla is literally opening their Shanghai Gigafactory this year.