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Soon to be followed a few years later with the same money pouring in to PR/consultancy report hype for quantum tech soon to be followed by a a predictable death

Soon to be followed a few years later with the same money pouring in to PR/consultancy report hype for quantum tech soon to be followed by a a predictable death for anyone dumb enough to have fallen for it whilst the startup investors divested long before.

krastanov 7y ago
I do not think historically this is what happened to the same type of hype for transitors/integrated-circuit startups a few decades ago (some of them failed, some of them reshaped both the technology and economy landscapes). Certainly, the amount of hype and uninformed investing are damaging to the field, but coherent control of quantum states (whether for computing or not) is a "very big deal", that would create amazing technologies from sensing and metrology to (hopefully) computing.
- hos234 7y ago
  > sensing and metrology in what kind of areas?
  - krastanov 7y ago
    This a tangent to the topic of the article, but it is an interesting tangent: There are many ways in which having coherent quantum states permits better sensors (sensing anything that is related to a Electric/Gravitational/Magnetic field, voltage, current, intensity, frequency, so basically all kinds of areas). - coherent superposition of multiple sensors improve the signal to noise ratio - improving beyond the diffraction limit of telescopes, by quantum-entangling multiple sensors - using constructs similar to quantum error correcting codes to make measurements more resilient to noise And these above are just the generic suggestions that are discussed in grad classes. When you dig into it there are so many other amazing quantum tricks to do.
- easytiger 7y ago
  You misunderstand. The same type of history had been identified as a way to get things sold. You can buy the pr for any mediocre technology and it's success is irrelevant.
  - krastanov 7y ago
    My point is that this particular technology is very much worthwhile, even if some of the startups are making annoying and misleading claims (DWave for instance, which indeed sells expensive devices that are not quantum computers and do not seem to be that useful). As the technology is developed, the misleading claims will simply fall behind and be forgotten.
    - easytiger 7y ago
      The lie is it will fundamentally and universally replace everything we have in now. That's the sale. Nope.
      - dumbfoundded 7y ago
        Well when that was said about the internet, they were kind of right. I don't know how you would believe quantum computing wouldn't be a huge change unless you thought something like error detection made it fundamentally impractical. It's going to take decades to mature the technology but it will change a lot. As an investment tool, it's much less certain. Capitalism is fluid. If money is easily available, people will start bad companies to get that money. The internet went through a bubble but certainly did change everything.
      - abdullahkhalids 7y ago
        No one has said anything like that. Not even the more "media-savy" startups. Everyone is talking about how on very specific problems you will get some sort of time or energy advantage.
api 7y ago
It's been quite a long time since capital actually invested in things whose goal was to deliver something and make money by selling it. These days most capital chases hype with the goal of cashing out before the hype collapses. This works because we have a severely demand constrained economy with monstrous amounts of money sloshing around at the top with no idea where to go. The idea is to get a hype train rolling to scoop up some of it. Nothing of value has to be produced.

krastanov 7y ago

I do not think historically this is what happened to the same type of hype for transitors/integrated-circuit startups a few decades ago (some of them failed, some of them reshaped both the technology and economy landscapes). Certainly, the amount of hype and uninformed investing are damaging to the field, but coherent control of quantum states (whether for computing or not) is a "very big deal", that would create amazing technologies from sensing and metrology to (hopefully) computing.

hos234 7y ago
> sensing and metrology in what kind of areas?
- krastanov 7y ago
  This a tangent to the topic of the article, but it is an interesting tangent: There are many ways in which having coherent quantum states permits better sensors (sensing anything that is related to a Electric/Gravitational/Magnetic field, voltage, current, intensity, frequency, so basically all kinds of areas). - coherent superposition of multiple sensors improve the signal to noise ratio - improving beyond the diffraction limit of telescopes, by quantum-entangling multiple sensors - using constructs similar to quantum error correcting codes to make measurements more resilient to noise And these above are just the generic suggestions that are discussed in grad classes. When you dig into it there are so many other amazing quantum tricks to do.
easytiger 7y ago
You misunderstand. The same type of history had been identified as a way to get things sold. You can buy the pr for any mediocre technology and it's success is irrelevant.
- krastanov 7y ago
  My point is that this particular technology is very much worthwhile, even if some of the startups are making annoying and misleading claims (DWave for instance, which indeed sells expensive devices that are not quantum computers and do not seem to be that useful). As the technology is developed, the misleading claims will simply fall behind and be forgotten.
  - easytiger 7y ago
    The lie is it will fundamentally and universally replace everything we have in now. That's the sale. Nope.
    - dumbfoundded 7y ago
      Well when that was said about the internet, they were kind of right. I don't know how you would believe quantum computing wouldn't be a huge change unless you thought something like error detection made it fundamentally impractical. It's going to take decades to mature the technology but it will change a lot. As an investment tool, it's much less certain. Capitalism is fluid. If money is easily available, people will start bad companies to get that money. The internet went through a bubble but certainly did change everything.
    - abdullahkhalids 7y ago
      No one has said anything like that. Not even the more "media-savy" startups. Everyone is talking about how on very specific problems you will get some sort of time or energy advantage.

api 7y ago

It's been quite a long time since capital actually invested in things whose goal was to deliver something and make money by selling it. These days most capital chases hype with the goal of cashing out before the hype collapses. This works because we have a severely demand constrained economy with monstrous amounts of money sloshing around at the top with no idea where to go. The idea is to get a hype train rolling to scoop up some of it. Nothing of value has to be produced.