6 ms·

I would short Netflix at this market cap... Even if you don't think Disney is a serious threat, they are losing at their own game to Amazon, which is producing

by tempsy 7y ago

I would short Netflix at this market cap... Even if you don't think Disney is a serious threat, they are losing at their own game to Amazon, which is producing objectively better quality content given their dominance at the Emmys over Netflix (which was nearly shut out). They have resorted to overpaying billions for old reruns like Seinfeld. At some point people will wake up and wonder why they're paying $15/month to watch reruns and return to actually buying content again for things like that.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
paulddraper 7y ago
I use Netflix for my Office player and that's about it.
dmarlow 7y ago
Ya, but $15/m isn't a whole lot. I hardly watch Netflix anymore, and there are certainly bigger fish to fry when it comes to saving money or maybe spend more time trying to make more money.
- tempsy 7y ago
  It adds up when people start having to choose among Netflix, Disney, Hulu, HBO, Apple, Amazon, etc. When it was just Netflix agreed it's not a lot, but the big threat of the existence of these competing services is that it forces people to budget.
  - pmart123 7y ago
    Right now, it still falls under the typical cable bundle pricing. However, there is definitely a finite supply of good actors, writers, and directors in Hollywood (demonstrated by the quality of recent releases). Netflix is also competing with gathering attention as a whole, so the growth of podcasts, Instagram, YouTube, or Twitch eat at the value of Netflix's all you can eat buffet style approach. The two wildcards are Apple and Amazon. I don't see either company competing directly, but they could lower the cost of customer acquisition (especially internationally) for HBO Max, Comcast, etc. and take a cut of the subscription. If that doesn't work, I think these other services will have a hard time competing internationally outside of Disney. I don't think many people will cancel Netflix, but right now, it seems the content needs and costs scale in proportion to subscribers, which isn't ideal for them. I could see Netflix struggling over the next couple of years, but Comcast and AT&T struggling, even more, to get their services off the ground. At that point, perhaps AT&T and Comcast go back to selling content to Netflix, or perhaps Amazon buys up the content rights cheaply after everyone else is decimated.
  - alistairSH 7y ago
    I'm at the point where I'm considering rotating services every few months... HBO in the fall, Netflix in the winter, Hulu in the Spring, ... I already cancelled HBO, and Netflix is barely keeping my interest right now.
RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago
I think Netflix is in a lot of trouble. For years, their catalog has been shrinking, replaced with Netflix Original Series/Movies. For a while, the Original Series were actually good quality. Then this past week, watched "The I-Land" which was heavily advertised on Netflix. Watched 1 episode, and then started episode 2, and then quit. It was basically a pile of garbage. Apparently, I am not along in my assessment. https://www.tvinsider.com/815148/the-i-land-netflix-reviews/ https://www.tvinsider.com/815148/the-i-land-netflix-reviews/ https://qz.com/quartzy/1712203/the-i-land-on-netflix-is-the-worst-tv-show-ever/ https://qz.com/quartzy/1712203/the-i-land-on-netflix-is-the-... Basically, I use Netflix mainly for entertainment for my children. Since they are huge Disney fans, I can't wait for Disney to release their streaming service, so I can cancel my Netflix subscription.
- asdff 7y ago
  The fact that their autoplaying trailers are still blasting in every one of their apps despite vocal outcry in tech press and all over the internet should be enough to let you know that they are circling the drain. When you ruin your product in effort to game your users, you've already lost.
  - henryfjordan 7y ago
    Don't you think maybe Netflix knows something you don't that led them to make that decision despite the "outcry"? They HAVE to have validated the autoplay approach with some data that proves it achieves some goal of theirs. The fact that they have enough conviction in their data to stick with autoplay despite the bad press should be a very good sign about a company's culture (and therefore their future).
    - dreamcompiler 7y ago
      Autoplay smells very much like a Netflix vice president's pet project. Everybody hates it but it's politically impossible within Netflix to kill it until that vice president leaves. See Google+.
xirdstl 7y ago
The latest Emmys resulted in 27 awards for Netflix, second only to HBO. Amazon won 8.
- seph-reed 7y ago
  It took me a minute to remember what the Emmy's were. They don't strike me a good means of measuring quality... they kind of just seem like a nepotism/popularity contest.
  - kkarakk 7y ago
    >they kind of just seem like a nepotism/popularity contest. EVERY award is just a nepotism/popularity contest. Nothing is done via merit anymore. I don't know about the Emmy judges but the Oscar judges have gone on record to say they don't even bother watching the vast majority of submissions and just go by "buzz". Look at the Hugo sci fi book award's being gamed for political correctness. Obama won a Nobel peace price for...what exactly? The internet has levelled the playing field but somehow a show produced by a multi billion dollar corporation always wins awards over a net original on Vimeo
endorphone 7y ago
Fleabag is a spectacular show, and deserves every accolade. At the same time, it has a limited appeal market. Outside of that lucky pick up, Amazon really hasn't done all that well. Many of their big hype shows have been abysmal. That Jack Ryan one is just terrible -- I had big expectations for it, but it's so poorly acted, and so bizarrely edited, that I still marvel that it was released as is. If I actually had to pay for Amazon's offering, instead of it being some bizarre throw-in with Prime, I wouldn't. At the same time, Netflix has had a lot of fantastic, and fantastically successful, shows. Shows with enormous appeal. So I wouldn't start shorting Netflix because Fleabag won some awards. Indeed, the trope that Netflix is so over has gone on here for time eternal.
- megaremote 7y ago
  > Fleabag is a spectacular show, and deserves every accolade. And it hardly has anything to do with Amazon, they just helped fund some of it with BBC3.
- markandrewj 7y ago
  In general I have found Netflix's in house shows to have a higher production value and better writing then Amazon's in house shows. Amazon has a few gems, but Netflix has been more consistent. For many people with Prime accounts though, the streaming service is a bonus on top of additional services they are using their account for, such as twitch prime. I think that Apples new streaming service in the long run will be the competitor to Netflix, but only if they are able to create a library of content that is compelling.
  - AJ007 7y ago
    The fundamental problem for Netflix is they have to make money from their subscriptions. Amazon can fund video production at break even or a loss indefinitely. Apple might be able to too, but their shareholders won’t be happy. Google+YouTube is another potential problem, at some point if they so choose to be. For certain demographics, they are fine just watching YouTube all day and not wanting a Netflix subscription. Disney appears to be another big threat for IP reasons, but we have yet to see how their rollout goes. Netflix probably has to sell ads and/or do something else to remain independent, if the other big tech companies are going to continue to desire to be media companies. If Netflix’s stock drops a lot, they’ll be a big acquisition target.
causality0 7y ago
Amazon's UX is horrible though. Having to access it through the amazon.com storefront is like having to walk through a crowded gift shop to get into your movie theater.
- broknbottle 7y ago
  couldn't have said it better.
- cwkoss 7y ago
  And then they mix "Prime Included" content with stuff you have to buy - directing you away from the content can access to continue upselling.
driverdan 7y ago
Many of us don't care about original content. I joined Netflix for movies, not original TV-style shows. Their movie catalog has become abysmal. The only reason I keep my account is because I shared it with my parents and they use it for my nephew.
- scarface74 7y ago
  Their movie catalog was always abysmal.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
corobo 7y ago
I just cancelled Netflix this month. If they're gonna be throwing down $100 million a year for Friends they can be doing better with their catalogue than what's there. I'm out. > return to actually buying content again It's a nice thought, but lets be honesty piracy is coming back for round 2 off the back of the splintered streaming ecosystem.
- x2f10 7y ago
  >It's a nice thought, but lets be honesty piracy is coming back for round 2 off the back of the splintered streaming ecosystem. Movie / TV streaming & PC gaming. It's really a bummer, because I don't mind subscriptions, but I will not subscribe to everyone's.
meijer 7y ago
Something is going wrong with the streaming market. In Germany, nobody is streaming Seinfeld! Amazon stopped a few months ago. You just cannot watch Seinfeld online.
dehrmann 7y ago
> I would short Netflix at this market cap... Netflix has $12B in debt. Subscriber growth has slowed a lot (2.7M per quarter). They're competing with big players with deep pockets, and sometimes large content libraries. Services are getting so fragmented that I could see that being a net loss for the industry. Maybe people would have paid $20 per month for Netflix with 95% content coverage, but I cancelled my subscription because $12 per month wasn't worth it for the three shows I watched.
- chii 7y ago
  i think a mistake netflix has made is to encourage exclusives. When netflix had marketshare and somewhat a monopoly, they should've pushed for laws to prevent monopolies/exclusive content (or create deals/made agreements for such). Instead, they leaned in to making content the main attraction of their service. I want streaming service to be content agnostic, and that studios making the content are mandated to allow all streaming services to serve their content. Streaming services should compete on speed, convenience and other non-content related features. Imagine if DVD/tape players were content exclusive - you'd have to buy a differently branded DVD player different shows from different studios!
  - paulryanrogers 7y ago
    So streaming as a commodity? Perhaps if Internet service were regulated like a utility then paying for fragmented streaming wouldn't be so bad. As it is just a few hundred megabits per second rivals the cost of television cable in my parent's time.
  - kemitche 7y ago
    > you'd have to buy a differently branded DVD player different shows from different studios! You mean like having to go Blu-Ray for shows/movies from some studios, and HD-DVD for shows from others? https://www.engadget.com/2008/02/20/two-years-of-battle-between-hd-dvd-and-blu-ray-a-retrospective/ https://www.engadget.com/2008/02/20/two-years-of-battle-betw...
  - scarface74 7y ago

by tempsy 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

paulddraper 7y ago

I use Netflix for my Office player and that's about it.

dmarlow 7y ago

Ya, but $15/m isn't a whole lot. I hardly watch Netflix anymore, and there are certainly bigger fish to fry when it comes to saving money or maybe spend more time trying to make more money.

tempsy 7y ago
It adds up when people start having to choose among Netflix, Disney, Hulu, HBO, Apple, Amazon, etc. When it was just Netflix agreed it's not a lot, but the big threat of the existence of these competing services is that it forces people to budget.
- pmart123 7y ago
  Right now, it still falls under the typical cable bundle pricing. However, there is definitely a finite supply of good actors, writers, and directors in Hollywood (demonstrated by the quality of recent releases). Netflix is also competing with gathering attention as a whole, so the growth of podcasts, Instagram, YouTube, or Twitch eat at the value of Netflix's all you can eat buffet style approach. The two wildcards are Apple and Amazon. I don't see either company competing directly, but they could lower the cost of customer acquisition (especially internationally) for HBO Max, Comcast, etc. and take a cut of the subscription. If that doesn't work, I think these other services will have a hard time competing internationally outside of Disney. I don't think many people will cancel Netflix, but right now, it seems the content needs and costs scale in proportion to subscribers, which isn't ideal for them. I could see Netflix struggling over the next couple of years, but Comcast and AT&T struggling, even more, to get their services off the ground. At that point, perhaps AT&T and Comcast go back to selling content to Netflix, or perhaps Amazon buys up the content rights cheaply after everyone else is decimated.
- alistairSH 7y ago
  I'm at the point where I'm considering rotating services every few months... HBO in the fall, Netflix in the winter, Hulu in the Spring, ... I already cancelled HBO, and Netflix is barely keeping my interest right now.

RcouF1uZ4gsC 7y ago

I think Netflix is in a lot of trouble. For years, their catalog has been shrinking, replaced with Netflix Original Series/Movies. For a while, the Original Series were actually good quality. Then this past week, watched "The I-Land" which was heavily advertised on Netflix. Watched 1 episode, and then started episode 2, and then quit. It was basically a pile of garbage. Apparently, I am not along in my assessment. https://www.tvinsider.com/815148/the-i-land-netflix-reviews/ https://www.tvinsider.com/815148/the-i-land-netflix-reviews/ https://qz.com/quartzy/1712203/the-i-land-on-netflix-is-the-worst-tv-show-ever/ https://qz.com/quartzy/1712203/the-i-land-on-netflix-is-the-... Basically, I use Netflix mainly for entertainment for my children. Since they are huge Disney fans, I can't wait for Disney to release their streaming service, so I can cancel my Netflix subscription.

asdff 7y ago
The fact that their autoplaying trailers are still blasting in every one of their apps despite vocal outcry in tech press and all over the internet should be enough to let you know that they are circling the drain. When you ruin your product in effort to game your users, you've already lost.
- henryfjordan 7y ago
  Don't you think maybe Netflix knows something you don't that led them to make that decision despite the "outcry"? They HAVE to have validated the autoplay approach with some data that proves it achieves some goal of theirs. The fact that they have enough conviction in their data to stick with autoplay despite the bad press should be a very good sign about a company's culture (and therefore their future).
  - dreamcompiler 7y ago
    Autoplay smells very much like a Netflix vice president's pet project. Everybody hates it but it's politically impossible within Netflix to kill it until that vice president leaves. See Google+.

xirdstl 7y ago

The latest Emmys resulted in 27 awards for Netflix, second only to HBO. Amazon won 8.

seph-reed 7y ago
It took me a minute to remember what the Emmy's were. They don't strike me a good means of measuring quality... they kind of just seem like a nepotism/popularity contest.
- kkarakk 7y ago
  >they kind of just seem like a nepotism/popularity contest. EVERY award is just a nepotism/popularity contest. Nothing is done via merit anymore. I don't know about the Emmy judges but the Oscar judges have gone on record to say they don't even bother watching the vast majority of submissions and just go by "buzz". Look at the Hugo sci fi book award's being gamed for political correctness. Obama won a Nobel peace price for...what exactly? The internet has levelled the playing field but somehow a show produced by a multi billion dollar corporation always wins awards over a net original on Vimeo

endorphone 7y ago

Fleabag is a spectacular show, and deserves every accolade. At the same time, it has a limited appeal market. Outside of that lucky pick up, Amazon really hasn't done all that well. Many of their big hype shows have been abysmal. That Jack Ryan one is just terrible -- I had big expectations for it, but it's so poorly acted, and so bizarrely edited, that I still marvel that it was released as is. If I actually had to pay for Amazon's offering, instead of it being some bizarre throw-in with Prime, I wouldn't. At the same time, Netflix has had a lot of fantastic, and fantastically successful, shows. Shows with enormous appeal. So I wouldn't start shorting Netflix because Fleabag won some awards. Indeed, the trope that Netflix is so over has gone on here for time eternal.

megaremote 7y ago
> Fleabag is a spectacular show, and deserves every accolade. And it hardly has anything to do with Amazon, they just helped fund some of it with BBC3.
markandrewj 7y ago
In general I have found Netflix's in house shows to have a higher production value and better writing then Amazon's in house shows. Amazon has a few gems, but Netflix has been more consistent. For many people with Prime accounts though, the streaming service is a bonus on top of additional services they are using their account for, such as twitch prime. I think that Apples new streaming service in the long run will be the competitor to Netflix, but only if they are able to create a library of content that is compelling.
- AJ007 7y ago
  The fundamental problem for Netflix is they have to make money from their subscriptions. Amazon can fund video production at break even or a loss indefinitely. Apple might be able to too, but their shareholders won’t be happy. Google+YouTube is another potential problem, at some point if they so choose to be. For certain demographics, they are fine just watching YouTube all day and not wanting a Netflix subscription. Disney appears to be another big threat for IP reasons, but we have yet to see how their rollout goes. Netflix probably has to sell ads and/or do something else to remain independent, if the other big tech companies are going to continue to desire to be media companies. If Netflix’s stock drops a lot, they’ll be a big acquisition target.

causality0 7y ago

Amazon's UX is horrible though. Having to access it through the amazon.com storefront is like having to walk through a crowded gift shop to get into your movie theater.

broknbottle 7y ago
couldn't have said it better.
cwkoss 7y ago
And then they mix "Prime Included" content with stuff you have to buy - directing you away from the content can access to continue upselling.

driverdan 7y ago

Many of us don't care about original content. I joined Netflix for movies, not original TV-style shows. Their movie catalog has become abysmal. The only reason I keep my account is because I shared it with my parents and they use it for my nephew.

scarface74 7y ago
Their movie catalog was always abysmal.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

corobo 7y ago

I just cancelled Netflix this month. If they're gonna be throwing down $100 million a year for Friends they can be doing better with their catalogue than what's there. I'm out. > return to actually buying content again It's a nice thought, but lets be honesty piracy is coming back for round 2 off the back of the splintered streaming ecosystem.

x2f10 7y ago
>It's a nice thought, but lets be honesty piracy is coming back for round 2 off the back of the splintered streaming ecosystem. Movie / TV streaming & PC gaming. It's really a bummer, because I don't mind subscriptions, but I will not subscribe to everyone's.

meijer 7y ago

Something is going wrong with the streaming market. In Germany, nobody is streaming Seinfeld! Amazon stopped a few months ago. You just cannot watch Seinfeld online.

dehrmann 7y ago

> I would short Netflix at this market cap... Netflix has $12B in debt. Subscriber growth has slowed a lot (2.7M per quarter). They're competing with big players with deep pockets, and sometimes large content libraries. Services are getting so fragmented that I could see that being a net loss for the industry. Maybe people would have paid $20 per month for Netflix with 95% content coverage, but I cancelled my subscription because $12 per month wasn't worth it for the three shows I watched.

chii 7y ago
i think a mistake netflix has made is to encourage exclusives. When netflix had marketshare and somewhat a monopoly, they should've pushed for laws to prevent monopolies/exclusive content (or create deals/made agreements for such). Instead, they leaned in to making content the main attraction of their service. I want streaming service to be content agnostic, and that studios making the content are mandated to allow all streaming services to serve their content. Streaming services should compete on speed, convenience and other non-content related features. Imagine if DVD/tape players were content exclusive - you'd have to buy a differently branded DVD player different shows from different studios!
- paulryanrogers 7y ago
  So streaming as a commodity? Perhaps if Internet service were regulated like a utility then paying for fragmented streaming wouldn't be so bad. As it is just a few hundred megabits per second rivals the cost of television cable in my parent's time.
- kemitche 7y ago
  > you'd have to buy a differently branded DVD player different shows from different studios! You mean like having to go Blu-Ray for shows/movies from some studios, and HD-DVD for shows from others? https://www.engadget.com/2008/02/20/two-years-of-battle-between-hd-dvd-and-blu-ray-a-retrospective/ https://www.engadget.com/2008/02/20/two-years-of-battle-betw...
- scarface74 7y ago