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They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors d

by graiz 7y ago

They had a leaked email posted last week that they were pushing for 100K. So 97k is less than was priced into the stock. Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy. Tesla could use a COO to manage operational expectations and let Elon focus more on engineering in the future. It'll keep his twitter/email free from setting market expectations.

pcurve 7y ago
The street was expecting much higher than 100k. Down 4& after hour. Currently Tesla's valuation is higher than both BMW and Mercedes. No doubt, they're enjoying rich multiple due to other forward-looking business units, but they're not generating any money. Their car business is what's keeping the light on. On long term, Tesla's car business is uncertain. The first-mover advantage is eroding quickly as legacy mfrs are stepping up. It's an extremely competitive business. And with $45k model flooding the market, the novelty factor of the brand is going to wear off very quickly. Look at the new Porsche Taycan. To me, that's the new Model S. Jung,
- sockgrant 7y ago
  Can the Taycan compete on price, speed, range, and charging network? AFAIK it loses in all of those categories.
  - threeseed 7y ago
    Can a Tesla compete on brand, design, interior fit, build quality, support, charging speed, repeatability, handing ? AFAIK it loses in all of these categories.
    - kipchak 7y ago
      I don't have any numbers, but on the brand point I'd figure Tesla might be in a stronger position than Porsche in the younger demographics.
      - vkou 7y ago
        Young people have been, and will continue to be buying 10-year old junkers, not brand-new Teslas. Outside of the tech bubble, money doesn't grow on trees.
      - threeseed 7y ago
        So we are playing the move the goalpost game. Younger demographics have less disposal income so they are hardly the type of customer you want to be betting on.
        FullyFunctional 7y ago
        Who is moving goal posts? You claim above that the Porche is "Better in every way". Two rather significant ways it's not: speed and range.
    - sockgrant 7y ago
      I thought Tesla superchargers have faster charging speed? They have 150kW charging, is Porsche doing something better? OP said Taycan is the new Model S, I think that your comment vs. mine highlights that this isn't true -- Taycan customers are not the same as Tesla customers. Tesla customers get a good bang for their buck -- speed, range, charging network at a cheap price. Porsche customers get brand, design, & build quality. Someone who values what Porsche has to offer probably was never interested in a Tesla. Meanwhile a Model 3 Performance -- the same speed as the Taycan -- costs $90,000 less.
      - threeseed 7y ago
        Porsche Taycan can charge at up to 270kW and they are working on a software update to bump this up to 400-500kW. The Model 3 can charge at 250kW. And not sure why you are comparing the Model 3 to a Taycan as they are completely different segments.
        sockgrant 7y ago
        Do you have any comment on my assertion that Taycan is not a Model S replacement?
      - jsight 7y ago
        Porsche has 250 kw, just like Tesla does on the LR Model 3. But supposedly Porsche will soon have 350 kw. The real metric is miles added per minute, though, and I haven't really seen an apples to apples comparison there.
    - nickik 7y ago
      > brand Yes, its way better. > design Yes. > interior fit I much rather have the interior of a Tesla. I car much more about the cool features then complaining about a slight overlap of two plastic panals that are under the seat, or whatever car german fetishits obsess about. > charging speed They have a small advantage on a tiny number of actual charging stations but the majority of the time your gone charge much slower.
- bryanlarsen 7y ago
  BMW and Mercedes each have an enterprise value of $140B. Tesla is $54B. Ford is $155B.
xkjkls 7y ago
Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared
- wpietri 7y ago
  Let's also note that it's down 30% from peak this year. And that the price is heavily based on hypothesized future performance. And that Musk took a hype-driven strategy that, while getting him low-cost capital and a lot of free marketing, also has downsides. In particular, it creates a population of skeptics, and increases volatility when negative events cause former believers to become skeptics.
  - xkjkls 7y ago
    Tesla's hypothesized future performance has continuously been pushed out longer and longer. The consensus 2020 EPS was $18 in 2013, and by today it is a negative number. You can't push out future performance for eternity.
  - Phillipharryt 7y ago
    You realise all stocks are priced based on predicted future earnings right?
    - wpietri 7y ago
      Hi! Replies generally go better if you assume people know the basics and then interpret what they said in light of that. Assuming for the moment I did know that, what do you think I might have meant?
      - Phillipharryt 7y ago
        Why would I assume you knew that? Not everyone is well versed in stocks so I was replying in case you thought tesla was unique in being priced based on speculated future earnings. I admit I said it in a pretty condescending way though.
kickopotomus 7y ago
It's because Tesla is still a pretty risky investment. It still remains to be seen what sort of "moat" they really have in the EV space. Most other major manufacturers are preparing to launch EVs over the next 3 years. It may turn out that Tesla really is a few steps ahead technologically or all of the guys that have been building cars for the last 80 years may eat their lunch. But I do agree that they could definitely use a COO. Musk seems like a bright guy but I'm just not sure how suited he is to handle operations at scale.
infecto 7y ago
It could also be to some degree there are very weird decisions that have been made at Tesla. Lets just look at Kimbal who has been on the board since the beginning, with a multi-million dollar compensation package even though he has zero relevant experience in the industry and is a huge outlier compared to the rest of the industry. Sure they are making strides in electric cars but as a business its very out of the norm.
threeseed 7y ago
Simple. Everyone is getting into EV. There isn't a car company around right now that doesn't have an electric model coming out in the next couple of years. And so Tesla has nowhere to go but down.
- s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
  Tesla has a major headstart and noone is near them or gaining on them. It's actually simpler. The attack campaigns negatively influence the stock.
  - threeseed 7y ago
    Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      Where’s the charging network? Why do you not mention 100-150 miles less range when comparing the Taycan to the S and X? “The maximum range for the Taycan is listed as just 450 km (279 miles) on the WLTP test cycle. The Audi is rated at 255 miles on WLTP and 204 on the U.S, EPA cycle. When the Taycan gets its EPA certification, it will likely have a range of around 220 miles.” - Forbes
    - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
      The Taycan is more expensive and has 100 less miles range than the S. The VW ID.3 is ugly, and it's long range version is 100 less miles than the Model 3 long range version. Neither have Tesla's charging network either. Range and charging is the most important thing about an ELECTRIC car. 100 miles is a big gap, and every car coming out has that gap.
      - sockgrant 7y ago
        Not to mention the Model S is faster 0-60 and cheaper.
mcguire 7y ago
"Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy." https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/why-tesla-is-such-a-battleground-stock.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/why-tesla-is-such-a-battlegr... Plus, keep in mind that, if TSLA isn't massively more profitable on a per-car basis than other car companies or doesn't essentially take over the automotive market, any upside is already priced in.

by graiz 7y ago

pcurve 7y ago

The street was expecting much higher than 100k. Down 4& after hour. Currently Tesla's valuation is higher than both BMW and Mercedes. No doubt, they're enjoying rich multiple due to other forward-looking business units, but they're not generating any money. Their car business is what's keeping the light on. On long term, Tesla's car business is uncertain. The first-mover advantage is eroding quickly as legacy mfrs are stepping up. It's an extremely competitive business. And with $45k model flooding the market, the novelty factor of the brand is going to wear off very quickly. Look at the new Porsche Taycan. To me, that's the new Model S. Jung,

sockgrant 7y ago
Can the Taycan compete on price, speed, range, and charging network? AFAIK it loses in all of those categories.
- threeseed 7y ago
  Can a Tesla compete on brand, design, interior fit, build quality, support, charging speed, repeatability, handing ? AFAIK it loses in all of these categories.
  - kipchak 7y ago
    I don't have any numbers, but on the brand point I'd figure Tesla might be in a stronger position than Porsche in the younger demographics.
    - vkou 7y ago
      Young people have been, and will continue to be buying 10-year old junkers, not brand-new Teslas. Outside of the tech bubble, money doesn't grow on trees.
    - threeseed 7y ago
      So we are playing the move the goalpost game. Younger demographics have less disposal income so they are hardly the type of customer you want to be betting on.
      - FullyFunctional 7y ago
        Who is moving goal posts? You claim above that the Porche is "Better in every way". Two rather significant ways it's not: speed and range.
  - sockgrant 7y ago
    I thought Tesla superchargers have faster charging speed? They have 150kW charging, is Porsche doing something better? OP said Taycan is the new Model S, I think that your comment vs. mine highlights that this isn't true -- Taycan customers are not the same as Tesla customers. Tesla customers get a good bang for their buck -- speed, range, charging network at a cheap price. Porsche customers get brand, design, & build quality. Someone who values what Porsche has to offer probably was never interested in a Tesla. Meanwhile a Model 3 Performance -- the same speed as the Taycan -- costs $90,000 less.
    - threeseed 7y ago
      Porsche Taycan can charge at up to 270kW and they are working on a software update to bump this up to 400-500kW. The Model 3 can charge at 250kW. And not sure why you are comparing the Model 3 to a Taycan as they are completely different segments.
      - sockgrant 7y ago
        Do you have any comment on my assertion that Taycan is not a Model S replacement?
    - jsight 7y ago
      Porsche has 250 kw, just like Tesla does on the LR Model 3. But supposedly Porsche will soon have 350 kw. The real metric is miles added per minute, though, and I haven't really seen an apples to apples comparison there.
  - nickik 7y ago
    > brand Yes, its way better. > design Yes. > interior fit I much rather have the interior of a Tesla. I car much more about the cool features then complaining about a slight overlap of two plastic panals that are under the seat, or whatever car german fetishits obsess about. > charging speed They have a small advantage on a tiny number of actual charging stations but the majority of the time your gone charge much slower.
bryanlarsen 7y ago
BMW and Mercedes each have an enterprise value of $140B. Tesla is $54B. Ford is $155B.

xkjkls 7y ago

Institutional investors don’t like the stock because it’s a 16 year old company that’s never made a profit a year in existence. It’s pretty easy to see how that could make any money manager run scared

wpietri 7y ago
Let's also note that it's down 30% from peak this year. And that the price is heavily based on hypothesized future performance. And that Musk took a hype-driven strategy that, while getting him low-cost capital and a lot of free marketing, also has downsides. In particular, it creates a population of skeptics, and increases volatility when negative events cause former believers to become skeptics.
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Tesla's hypothesized future performance has continuously been pushed out longer and longer. The consensus 2020 EPS was $18 in 2013, and by today it is a negative number. You can't push out future performance for eternity.
- Phillipharryt 7y ago
  You realise all stocks are priced based on predicted future earnings right?
  - wpietri 7y ago
    Hi! Replies generally go better if you assume people know the basics and then interpret what they said in light of that. Assuming for the moment I did know that, what do you think I might have meant?
    - Phillipharryt 7y ago
      Why would I assume you knew that? Not everyone is well versed in stocks so I was replying in case you thought tesla was unique in being priced based on speculated future earnings. I admit I said it in a pretty condescending way though.

kickopotomus 7y ago

It's because Tesla is still a pretty risky investment. It still remains to be seen what sort of "moat" they really have in the EV space. Most other major manufacturers are preparing to launch EVs over the next 3 years. It may turn out that Tesla really is a few steps ahead technologically or all of the guys that have been building cars for the last 80 years may eat their lunch. But I do agree that they could definitely use a COO. Musk seems like a bright guy but I'm just not sure how suited he is to handle operations at scale.

infecto 7y ago

It could also be to some degree there are very weird decisions that have been made at Tesla. Lets just look at Kimbal who has been on the board since the beginning, with a multi-million dollar compensation package even though he has zero relevant experience in the industry and is a huge outlier compared to the rest of the industry. Sure they are making strides in electric cars but as a business its very out of the norm.

threeseed 7y ago

Simple. Everyone is getting into EV. There isn't a car company around right now that doesn't have an electric model coming out in the next couple of years. And so Tesla has nowhere to go but down.

s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
Tesla has a major headstart and noone is near them or gaining on them. It's actually simpler. The attack campaigns negatively influence the stock.
- threeseed 7y ago
  Taycan is a better car in every respect than the Model S. VW ID.3/4 are looking like being winners and will likely outclass the Model 3/Y. eTron, I-PACE and EQC are all selling well against the Model X. And again. Everyone is coming into EV this year and next.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    Where’s the charging network? Why do you not mention 100-150 miles less range when comparing the Taycan to the S and X? “The maximum range for the Taycan is listed as just 450 km (279 miles) on the WLTP test cycle. The Audi is rated at 255 miles on WLTP and 204 on the U.S, EPA cycle. When the Taycan gets its EPA certification, it will likely have a range of around 220 miles.” - Forbes
  - s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
    The Taycan is more expensive and has 100 less miles range than the S. The VW ID.3 is ugly, and it's long range version is 100 less miles than the Model 3 long range version. Neither have Tesla's charging network either. Range and charging is the most important thing about an ELECTRIC car. 100 miles is a big gap, and every car coming out has that gap.
    - sockgrant 7y ago
      Not to mention the Model S is faster 0-60 and cheaper.

mcguire 7y ago

"Not sure why institutional investors don't like the stock and it's so heavily shorted and twitchy." https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/why-tesla-is-such-a-battleground-stock.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/04/23/why-tesla-is-such-a-battlegr... Plus, keep in mind that, if TSLA isn't massively more profitable on a per-car basis than other car companies or doesn't essentially take over the automotive market, any upside is already priced in.