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And assuming the EU's freedom of movement holds eventually people and business will realize this and move there. Then they'll do what everyone else does shoot

And assuming the EU's freedom of movement holds eventually people and business will realize this and move there. Then they'll do what everyone else does shoot themselves in the foot by making everything expensive. Eventually the new growth will happen elsewhere and the cycle will repeat.

dmurray 7y ago
That would be absolutely fine for Bulgaria. They're rightly more worried about not being able to take part in the boom part of a cycle at all.
kungito 7y ago
I wouldn't call this a cycle as much as consolidation. People are moving away from certain areas because their culture requires things which do not exist there anymore and other people with different culture then go there for other reasons. These new people cause some local things to start adapting to the new culture growing in that area. I guess we are talking about farming families moving to Germany and cities looking for jobs because big industry doesn't exist in the villages anymore and they aren't the business type which can adapt to modern farming and way of doing business. Then there's highly educated people who wish to move away from the city and start doing remote work from some nice countryside or business people from the city who want to start a modern farming or tourism industry somewhere. I wouldn't say this is a cycle because this is one cultural transformation which has been going on in transitioning countries for the past 2-3 decades and not something which is happening every 10 years causing people to move back.
Zenst 7y ago
Interesting that you say that, lets look at Poland. They saw a decrease in skilled workers and young who moved around the EU for better opertunities. This saw many parts of Poland become ghost towns. This got to a head and the goverment in Poland got to the point that they introduced a new TAX system. One comparable to USA TAX for nationals in that it didn't matter what part of the World you lived in or earned your money, you as a national would now pay tax. This saw many return home and Poland is now in many parts a growing area of opertunity, many who left initialy returned to a country much more robust, things had improved and with that, they happily returned and for them - life is now much better than the opportunities that saw them be tempted to leave in the first place. This with other initiatives like scrapping income tax for young, to give them a kickstart and remove the easy temptation to get skilled up and then leave, have made a big difference. Though the aspect of having to pay tax twice upon income, really did drive things home in many ways overall from those I know. This is based upon many fine Polish nationals I've had the pleasure to know over my years and keeping up with current events.
- Mediterraneo10 7y ago
  > One comparable to USA TAX for nationals in that it didn't matter what part of the World you lived in or earned your money, you as a national would now pay tax. This is not the case.
  - burntoutfire 7y ago
    Can confirm, I'm Polish and it's the first time I've heard of this.
  - Zenst 7y ago
    https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2011/12/poland-income-tax.html https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2011/12/poland-income-... "An individual is defined as resident of Poland, if at least one below-mentioned condition is fulfilled: the individual has closer personal or economic relations with Poland (center of vital interests) or The individual stays on the territory of Poland longer than 183 days in a given fiscal year." So if you have somebody working abroad, paying tax abroad and sends home money to family, then they are open to being double taxed. I'm sure there is some better article about all this, but this is what I've been told from Polish nationals a few times and one who was giving up a job in another EU country to move back to Poland, due to this and that opportunities for work had improved greatly from a decade ago when they initially left.
    - rad_gruchalski 7y ago
      Not anymore. For about 10 years.
      - Zenst 7y ago
        Yes, which is odd as only a few months ago was talking to a Polish electrician who was complaining about it, and had a friends over the years go on about it. So there are many conversations I wish I could time travel and go, really? Sorry for my confusions, though all did have families back home, so may of been a factor or some tax aspect perhaps as I didn't delve. Though did recall reading an article upon the bbc (though had no luck finding it), but that may of been over 10 years ago knowing me at times.
lm28469 7y ago
> And assuming the EU's freedom of movement holds eventually people and business will realize this and move there. Most people don't move to a country like Bulgaria just for a job. It's fine when you're 2X years old, can work remotely and have time to get into the culture, language, &c. As soon as you have a serious gf/bf or a family you can forget it. One of my colleague is Bulgarian, he moved to Germany because of corruption, lack of quality school, lack of good paying jobs, and that was in Sofia, not some random small town. There is a reason why it's cheap and everyone is leaving. Also, people underestimate the personal cost of moving to completely culturally different country, you'll never feel at home there unless you live in some kind of gated community or expat district.
- theflyinghorse 7y ago
  Not feeling at home doesn't really ever go away, you just understand the culture around you better and can fit in better.
  - chosenbreed37 7y ago
    > Not feeling at home doesn't really ever go away, you just understand the culture around you better and can fit in better. True. Would you concede that dependent on one's background/circumstances some cultures might be easier to adjust to?
    - theflyinghorse 7y ago
      I would say so, yes! If a Ukrainian national moved to say Russia or Belarus I doubt they'd feel foreign to the land at all.
tomp 7y ago
Does that actually work that way? AFAIK the US freedom of movement is mostly resulting in greater and greater concentration... the only non-urban areas that are getting more and more popular are general "nice" (i.e. geographically advantageous) areas, like Florida and ski resorts.
- drpgq 7y ago
  Aren't Californians moving to Idaho and Oregon
  - nradov 7y ago
    The last few years there has been a significant increase in people moving from California to Texas. Texas now has the fastest state population growth rate.
    - rhacker 7y ago
      Makes sense - I was in Wimberly about 4 years ago and it was so peaceful and quaint - it was a retirement town. Went over there again about 5 months ago and the downtown was bursting at the seams with cars. Same time of year - you can no longer walk across the street without looking - it's a danger zone now. Filled with hipsters and their wives and 2.2 kids.
  - lotsofpulp 7y ago
    .
    - barsonme 7y ago
      No, that’s a common misconception. In reality, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho all suck. Don’t move here, you’ll hate it.
      - blaser-waffle 7y ago
        Especially stay away from Boise. Place is a hellhole.
joyjoyjoy 7y ago
You don't know much about Europeans. You don't know much about businesses either. What sense would it make for a plumber business or restaurant to move there? None. What sense would it make for a high tech business to move there? None. No VC, no subsidiaries, and most important, no other business that you need. A hardware start up need tons of expertise from highly skilled suppliers. Yes, for digital nomads it might work. But so does Panama or wherever.
- 99052882514569 7y ago
  Being in an EU country is a definite advantage over Panama.

dmurray 7y ago

That would be absolutely fine for Bulgaria. They're rightly more worried about not being able to take part in the boom part of a cycle at all.

kungito 7y ago

I wouldn't call this a cycle as much as consolidation. People are moving away from certain areas because their culture requires things which do not exist there anymore and other people with different culture then go there for other reasons. These new people cause some local things to start adapting to the new culture growing in that area. I guess we are talking about farming families moving to Germany and cities looking for jobs because big industry doesn't exist in the villages anymore and they aren't the business type which can adapt to modern farming and way of doing business. Then there's highly educated people who wish to move away from the city and start doing remote work from some nice countryside or business people from the city who want to start a modern farming or tourism industry somewhere. I wouldn't say this is a cycle because this is one cultural transformation which has been going on in transitioning countries for the past 2-3 decades and not something which is happening every 10 years causing people to move back.

Zenst 7y ago

Interesting that you say that, lets look at Poland. They saw a decrease in skilled workers and young who moved around the EU for better opertunities. This saw many parts of Poland become ghost towns. This got to a head and the goverment in Poland got to the point that they introduced a new TAX system. One comparable to USA TAX for nationals in that it didn't matter what part of the World you lived in or earned your money, you as a national would now pay tax. This saw many return home and Poland is now in many parts a growing area of opertunity, many who left initialy returned to a country much more robust, things had improved and with that, they happily returned and for them - life is now much better than the opportunities that saw them be tempted to leave in the first place. This with other initiatives like scrapping income tax for young, to give them a kickstart and remove the easy temptation to get skilled up and then leave, have made a big difference. Though the aspect of having to pay tax twice upon income, really did drive things home in many ways overall from those I know. This is based upon many fine Polish nationals I've had the pleasure to know over my years and keeping up with current events.

Mediterraneo10 7y ago
> One comparable to USA TAX for nationals in that it didn't matter what part of the World you lived in or earned your money, you as a national would now pay tax. This is not the case.
- burntoutfire 7y ago
  Can confirm, I'm Polish and it's the first time I've heard of this.
- Zenst 7y ago
  https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2011/12/poland-income-tax.html https://home.kpmg/xx/en/home/insights/2011/12/poland-income-... "An individual is defined as resident of Poland, if at least one below-mentioned condition is fulfilled: the individual has closer personal or economic relations with Poland (center of vital interests) or The individual stays on the territory of Poland longer than 183 days in a given fiscal year." So if you have somebody working abroad, paying tax abroad and sends home money to family, then they are open to being double taxed. I'm sure there is some better article about all this, but this is what I've been told from Polish nationals a few times and one who was giving up a job in another EU country to move back to Poland, due to this and that opportunities for work had improved greatly from a decade ago when they initially left.
  - rad_gruchalski 7y ago
    Not anymore. For about 10 years.
    - Zenst 7y ago
      Yes, which is odd as only a few months ago was talking to a Polish electrician who was complaining about it, and had a friends over the years go on about it. So there are many conversations I wish I could time travel and go, really? Sorry for my confusions, though all did have families back home, so may of been a factor or some tax aspect perhaps as I didn't delve. Though did recall reading an article upon the bbc (though had no luck finding it), but that may of been over 10 years ago knowing me at times.

lm28469 7y ago

> And assuming the EU's freedom of movement holds eventually people and business will realize this and move there. Most people don't move to a country like Bulgaria just for a job. It's fine when you're 2X years old, can work remotely and have time to get into the culture, language, &c. As soon as you have a serious gf/bf or a family you can forget it. One of my colleague is Bulgarian, he moved to Germany because of corruption, lack of quality school, lack of good paying jobs, and that was in Sofia, not some random small town. There is a reason why it's cheap and everyone is leaving. Also, people underestimate the personal cost of moving to completely culturally different country, you'll never feel at home there unless you live in some kind of gated community or expat district.

theflyinghorse 7y ago
Not feeling at home doesn't really ever go away, you just understand the culture around you better and can fit in better.
- chosenbreed37 7y ago
  > Not feeling at home doesn't really ever go away, you just understand the culture around you better and can fit in better. True. Would you concede that dependent on one's background/circumstances some cultures might be easier to adjust to?
  - theflyinghorse 7y ago
    I would say so, yes! If a Ukrainian national moved to say Russia or Belarus I doubt they'd feel foreign to the land at all.

tomp 7y ago

Does that actually work that way? AFAIK the US freedom of movement is mostly resulting in greater and greater concentration... the only non-urban areas that are getting more and more popular are general "nice" (i.e. geographically advantageous) areas, like Florida and ski resorts.

drpgq 7y ago
Aren't Californians moving to Idaho and Oregon
- nradov 7y ago
  The last few years there has been a significant increase in people moving from California to Texas. Texas now has the fastest state population growth rate.
  - rhacker 7y ago
    Makes sense - I was in Wimberly about 4 years ago and it was so peaceful and quaint - it was a retirement town. Went over there again about 5 months ago and the downtown was bursting at the seams with cars. Same time of year - you can no longer walk across the street without looking - it's a danger zone now. Filled with hipsters and their wives and 2.2 kids.
- lotsofpulp 7y ago
  .
  - barsonme 7y ago
    No, that’s a common misconception. In reality, Washington, Oregon, and Idaho all suck. Don’t move here, you’ll hate it.
    - blaser-waffle 7y ago
      Especially stay away from Boise. Place is a hellhole.

joyjoyjoy 7y ago

You don't know much about Europeans. You don't know much about businesses either. What sense would it make for a plumber business or restaurant to move there? None. What sense would it make for a high tech business to move there? None. No VC, no subsidiaries, and most important, no other business that you need. A hardware start up need tons of expertise from highly skilled suppliers. Yes, for digital nomads it might work. But so does Panama or wherever.

99052882514569 7y ago
Being in an EU country is a definite advantage over Panama.