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What about a runaway climate change feedback loop making the earth uninhabitable? Or even more moderate climate change causing a collapse of the food chain?

mieseratte 7y ago
And how likely are either of these?
- audessuscest 7y ago
  very unlikely
jandrese 7y ago
15 years is probably too extreme for even the most pessimistic climate change scenarios where you get to the point of boiling the oceans. However, these kids will be dealing with the consequences of extreme climate change in their lifetimes. Lots of people are going to die. Some societies will collapse. It's not going to be easy and having the world leaders today range from offering emotional support and no effective policy decisions to outright hostile to the entire concept of climate change is not helpful.
abootstrapper 7y ago
Climate what now? /s For real though I swear half of hacker news must work in oil and gas.
blacksmith_tb 7y ago
Human beings haven't relied on "the food chain" for thousands of years, but it's certainly true that climate change will have a big impact on agriculture, the recent IPCC report on land covers the topic in some depth[1]. Models of runaway change don't suggest humans would be wiped out (though I wouldn't want to live near a coastline...[2]), especially not within 15 years. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Climate_Change_and_Land https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Climate_Chan... 2: https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252
Aunche 7y ago
The carbon locked up in fossil fuels and a lot of sedimentary rocks was in the atmosphere at some point. Granted the sun was a bit cooler, but the earth has been drastically warmer in the past and life went on just fine. We have the technology today to grow all of our food in hydroponic greenhouses in Siberia and Canada, but food is so cheap that nobody is bothering to.
marcosdumay 7y ago
If we put a lot of effort on removing carbon from stable minerals, there is probably enough of it on Earth's crust to make it uninhabitable. But that's a large engineering effort that I don't think humanity is currently able to achieve.
- umanwizard 7y ago
  Given that the climate is a chaotic system that nobody fully understands, how do you know this for sure?
  - amanaplanacanal 7y ago
    He said "probably" and "I don't think" which seems like enough hedging for me.
  - marcosdumay 7y ago
    Given that all that carbon that we are extracting has already been on the atmosphere once, with some of what is currently in stable mineral, and life didn't end at the time, it's unlikely that now, with a thinner atmosphere and a weaker Sun it will be enough. We have enough of a disaster to deal with, there's no need for fearmongering.

mieseratte 7y ago

And how likely are either of these?

audessuscest 7y ago
very unlikely

jandrese 7y ago

15 years is probably too extreme for even the most pessimistic climate change scenarios where you get to the point of boiling the oceans. However, these kids will be dealing with the consequences of extreme climate change in their lifetimes. Lots of people are going to die. Some societies will collapse. It's not going to be easy and having the world leaders today range from offering emotional support and no effective policy decisions to outright hostile to the entire concept of climate change is not helpful.

abootstrapper 7y ago

Climate what now? /s For real though I swear half of hacker news must work in oil and gas.

blacksmith_tb 7y ago

Human beings haven't relied on "the food chain" for thousands of years, but it's certainly true that climate change will have a big impact on agriculture, the recent IPCC report on land covers the topic in some depth[1]. Models of runaway change don't suggest humans would be wiped out (though I wouldn't want to live near a coastline...[2]), especially not within 15 years. 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Climate_Change_and_Land https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Climate_Chan... 2: https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252 https://www.pnas.org/content/115/33/8252

Aunche 7y ago

The carbon locked up in fossil fuels and a lot of sedimentary rocks was in the atmosphere at some point. Granted the sun was a bit cooler, but the earth has been drastically warmer in the past and life went on just fine. We have the technology today to grow all of our food in hydroponic greenhouses in Siberia and Canada, but food is so cheap that nobody is bothering to.

marcosdumay 7y ago

If we put a lot of effort on removing carbon from stable minerals, there is probably enough of it on Earth's crust to make it uninhabitable. But that's a large engineering effort that I don't think humanity is currently able to achieve.

umanwizard 7y ago
Given that the climate is a chaotic system that nobody fully understands, how do you know this for sure?
- amanaplanacanal 7y ago
  He said "probably" and "I don't think" which seems like enough hedging for me.
- marcosdumay 7y ago
  Given that all that carbon that we are extracting has already been on the atmosphere once, with some of what is currently in stable mineral, and life didn't end at the time, it's unlikely that now, with a thinner atmosphere and a weaker Sun it will be enough. We have enough of a disaster to deal with, there's no need for fearmongering.