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This is almost too perfect but SoftBank is, at the moment, trying to hire a valuations director: https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=cf0378114e63aeb4&from=tp-ser

This is almost too perfect but SoftBank is, at the moment, trying to hire a valuations director: https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=cf0378114e63aeb4&from=tp-serp&tk=1dld0iag1430g802 https://www.indeed.com/viewjob?jk=cf0378114e63aeb4&from=tp-s... Sort of a "Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity" kind of thing . . .

skrebbel 7y ago
In their defense, Masayoshi Son made much of his fortune by applying the greater fool theory (and lost much of it that way as well). There's a chance they really just took a calculated risk here, and with many of their other investments too. The risk being not so much the success of the company like normal VC investments, but explicitly a "maybe we can profitably push this through an IPO, let's see if the sheeple fall for it" kind of thing.
- mhermher 7y ago
  Live by the sword, die by the sword. Eventually you will be the greatest fool.
- rebuilder 7y ago
  Thats quite the defense.
- TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
  Hypothetically, if he was really good at this he'd pick a highly leveraged market segment, attempt to crash it with a ridiculously implausible high-profile failure at the tail end of a bubble, and benefit by shorting everything that wasn't nailed to the floor. Or maybe he's just a bit gullible. It's hard to be sure.
maehwasu 7y ago
Alternatively, never be too quick to attribute to stupidity when there’s a strong incentive for malice to take advantage of that attribution to hide itself.
- kortilla 7y ago
  Alternatively, never attribute to malice or stupidity what can easily be attributed to greed and lack of incentive.
  - bigiain 7y ago
    Greed and perverse incentives. "It'll do a bunch of deals that'll crater the company within 3 years, but I'll cash out $700mil on the way and be long gone before everybody who stays is trying to climb out of the glowing hole in the ground..."
- joe_the_user 7y ago
  Yeah, Hanlon's Razor needs a strong caveat that it should never be uncritically applied when strong financial motives are at play. I think Hanlon's Razor became popular in earlier days of the Internet, when dumb technical decision might happen ... people are dumb. Today, with money riding on everything, the situation can be much muddier, with dumb technical decisions happening because people are greedy ... and dumb. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor
tim333 7y ago
It's hard to get investment decisions right all the time. One day you buy 30% of AliBaba for $20m, another you invest in WeWork.

skrebbel 7y ago

In their defense, Masayoshi Son made much of his fortune by applying the greater fool theory (and lost much of it that way as well). There's a chance they really just took a calculated risk here, and with many of their other investments too. The risk being not so much the success of the company like normal VC investments, but explicitly a "maybe we can profitably push this through an IPO, let's see if the sheeple fall for it" kind of thing.

mhermher 7y ago
Live by the sword, die by the sword. Eventually you will be the greatest fool.
rebuilder 7y ago
Thats quite the defense.
TheOtherHobbes 7y ago
Hypothetically, if he was really good at this he'd pick a highly leveraged market segment, attempt to crash it with a ridiculously implausible high-profile failure at the tail end of a bubble, and benefit by shorting everything that wasn't nailed to the floor. Or maybe he's just a bit gullible. It's hard to be sure.

maehwasu 7y ago

Alternatively, never be too quick to attribute to stupidity when there’s a strong incentive for malice to take advantage of that attribution to hide itself.

kortilla 7y ago
Alternatively, never attribute to malice or stupidity what can easily be attributed to greed and lack of incentive.
- bigiain 7y ago
  Greed and perverse incentives. "It'll do a bunch of deals that'll crater the company within 3 years, but I'll cash out $700mil on the way and be long gone before everybody who stays is trying to climb out of the glowing hole in the ground..."
joe_the_user 7y ago
Yeah, Hanlon's Razor needs a strong caveat that it should never be uncritically applied when strong financial motives are at play. I think Hanlon's Razor became popular in earlier days of the Internet, when dumb technical decision might happen ... people are dumb. Today, with money riding on everything, the situation can be much muddier, with dumb technical decisions happening because people are greedy ... and dumb. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor

tim333 7y ago

It's hard to get investment decisions right all the time. One day you buy 30% of AliBaba for $20m, another you invest in WeWork.