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> And it is worth saying: to get that verdict, they had to take the leap of judgement in assuming they knew exactly why the PM did it. They explicitly side-ste

by hesk 7y ago

> And it is worth saying: to get that verdict, they had to take the leap of judgement in assuming they knew exactly why the PM did it. They explicitly side-stepped the motive of why Johnson prorogued Parliament. From page 2 of the summary (https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2019-0192-summary.pdf https://www.supremecourt.uk/cases/docs/uksc-2019-0192-summar...): > For present purposes, the relevant limit on the power to prorogue is this: that a decision to prorogue (or advise the monarch to prorogue) will be unlawful if the prorogation has the effect of frustrating or preventing, without reasonable justification, the ability of Parliament to carry out its constitutional functions as a legislature and as the body responsible for the supervision of the executive. In judging any justification which might be put forward, the court must of course be sensitive to the responsibilities and experience of the Prime Minister and proceed with appropriate caution. > If the prorogation does have that effect, without reasonable justification, there is no need for the court to consider whether the Prime Minister’s motive or purpose was unlawful. Also: > * MPs voted down the current deal 4 times but EU won't change that deal The EU is happy to change the deal if the UK government proposes something reasonable. But it will not back down from its red lines which is the integrity of the single market and solidarity with Ireland, which is a member state.

hogFeast 7y ago
> They explicitly side-stepped the motive of why Johnson prorogued Parliament. They did not. The part you quoting actually explains that this is the case. The court has to identify whether the justification is reasonable (if you followed the case in Scotland, the logic was exactly the same), and this means looking at motive (just to say, constitutional law in the UK does not work like the US...at all). I did not imply that the EU should do anything. Again, this is a common misunderstanding of the govt's position. The point of their strategy isn't to force the EU into doing anything (although that is the effect). The point is to stop the delay (the effect on the economy has been huge).
- pjc50 7y ago
  > the effect on the economy has been huge Yes. You can see every time a pro-Brexit news event happens the pound falls and an anti-Brexit one happens it ticks up again, like today. The effect of no-deal will be even bigger, as a number of businesses which have been hanging on will be forced to close or relocate. The default way out of this has to be to revoke, until such time as someone can get elected with a majority of MPs supporting a workable plan.
  - hogFeast 7y ago
    The UK has a phenomenally large number of low productivity businesses (the BoE has written tons on the productivity crisis). To suggest that businesses would go bust who wouldn't have gone bust otherwise is to confuse cause and effect. For most businesses, it won't make a tremendous difference. Imports are becoming more expensive but this is something that likely would have occurred anyway because of weak competitiveness/low savings rate. Exporters are probably going to come out even or ahead (the change in the £ has offset tariffs). The situation at the border is somewhat concerning (although only worth 1-2% of GDP in most studies) but has also been distinctly complicated by the switch from CDS to CHIEF (which was supposed to happen years ago but didn't). We could get this right, unf we have got to the point where we are choosing not to. The main concern for the UK economy is actually supply. The labour market is very tight, unemployment is the lowest it has been for four decades or so, wages are growing like crazy, and we have had deflationary effect due to the delay (which has crushed investment) but, at some point, this is going to come back and there is no spare capacity. It would be a sweet relief for the marginal, low-productivity businesses that are suffocating the economy to fold (the reason we have low productivity and tight labour is because too many people do jobs that are unproductive, these businesses will not give up resources willingly).
    - pjc50 7y ago
      Leaving aside Yellowhammer, Thomas Cook, and the various car manufacturers, the argument that low-productivity businesses are the ones holding the economy back and need to go bankrupt is really questionable. People are free to move jobs. You just have to pay them more. Evidently the wage growth has not yet caught up enough. The other approach would be to encourage staff from overseas, which the government has spent years discouraging and has now specifically chosen to make harder for Europeans. > We could get this right, unf we have got to the point where we are choosing not to. This has systematically been the Brexit approach.
- andyjohnson0 7y ago
  >> They explicitly side-stepped the motive of why Johnson prorogued Parliament. > They did not. The way I read it is that they decided that the _effect_ (preventing parliament from performing its constitutional role) of prorogation was unlawful, and therefore Johnson's motive was irrelevant.
  - hogFeast 7y ago
    Yes, and they said "without reasonable justification". The implication of that being that if "reasonable justification" existed then it would be lawful regardless of effect. Whilst I enjoy watching the mental gymnastics that other people go to on Brexit (I voted to Remain btw), it is utterly self-defeating. Just read something, try to stop your brain jumping in..."reasonable justification"...it doesn't need to be more complicated than that. This would be more obvious if more people actually followed the primary sources rather than journalists btw. In Scotland, there was a whole thing about getting emails, etc. This has no other purpose than examining motive.
machinecoffee 7y ago
> which is the integrity of the single market and solidarity with Ireland, which is a member state. It's a sad indictment on my country that the EU seems to care more about the Good Friday agreement than what seems like a majority of the current Johnson backing Conservative MPs (and I'm not even sure about Labour).
- thefringthing 7y ago
  Isn't the possibility of direct rule still looming with no government formed at Stormont for two years now? Direct rule seems like it would essentially be an abandonment of the Good Friday Agreement.
  - disgruntledphd2 7y ago
    Yup, and this will be unavoidable in a no-deal Brexit situation, sadly.

by hesk 7y ago

hogFeast 7y ago

> They explicitly side-stepped the motive of why Johnson prorogued Parliament. They did not. The part you quoting actually explains that this is the case. The court has to identify whether the justification is reasonable (if you followed the case in Scotland, the logic was exactly the same), and this means looking at motive (just to say, constitutional law in the UK does not work like the US...at all). I did not imply that the EU should do anything. Again, this is a common misunderstanding of the govt's position. The point of their strategy isn't to force the EU into doing anything (although that is the effect). The point is to stop the delay (the effect on the economy has been huge).

pjc50 7y ago
> the effect on the economy has been huge Yes. You can see every time a pro-Brexit news event happens the pound falls and an anti-Brexit one happens it ticks up again, like today. The effect of no-deal will be even bigger, as a number of businesses which have been hanging on will be forced to close or relocate. The default way out of this has to be to revoke, until such time as someone can get elected with a majority of MPs supporting a workable plan.
- hogFeast 7y ago
  The UK has a phenomenally large number of low productivity businesses (the BoE has written tons on the productivity crisis). To suggest that businesses would go bust who wouldn't have gone bust otherwise is to confuse cause and effect. For most businesses, it won't make a tremendous difference. Imports are becoming more expensive but this is something that likely would have occurred anyway because of weak competitiveness/low savings rate. Exporters are probably going to come out even or ahead (the change in the £ has offset tariffs). The situation at the border is somewhat concerning (although only worth 1-2% of GDP in most studies) but has also been distinctly complicated by the switch from CDS to CHIEF (which was supposed to happen years ago but didn't). We could get this right, unf we have got to the point where we are choosing not to. The main concern for the UK economy is actually supply. The labour market is very tight, unemployment is the lowest it has been for four decades or so, wages are growing like crazy, and we have had deflationary effect due to the delay (which has crushed investment) but, at some point, this is going to come back and there is no spare capacity. It would be a sweet relief for the marginal, low-productivity businesses that are suffocating the economy to fold (the reason we have low productivity and tight labour is because too many people do jobs that are unproductive, these businesses will not give up resources willingly).
  - pjc50 7y ago
    Leaving aside Yellowhammer, Thomas Cook, and the various car manufacturers, the argument that low-productivity businesses are the ones holding the economy back and need to go bankrupt is really questionable. People are free to move jobs. You just have to pay them more. Evidently the wage growth has not yet caught up enough. The other approach would be to encourage staff from overseas, which the government has spent years discouraging and has now specifically chosen to make harder for Europeans. > We could get this right, unf we have got to the point where we are choosing not to. This has systematically been the Brexit approach.
andyjohnson0 7y ago
>> They explicitly side-stepped the motive of why Johnson prorogued Parliament. > They did not. The way I read it is that they decided that the _effect_ (preventing parliament from performing its constitutional role) of prorogation was unlawful, and therefore Johnson's motive was irrelevant.
- hogFeast 7y ago
  Yes, and they said "without reasonable justification". The implication of that being that if "reasonable justification" existed then it would be lawful regardless of effect. Whilst I enjoy watching the mental gymnastics that other people go to on Brexit (I voted to Remain btw), it is utterly self-defeating. Just read something, try to stop your brain jumping in..."reasonable justification"...it doesn't need to be more complicated than that. This would be more obvious if more people actually followed the primary sources rather than journalists btw. In Scotland, there was a whole thing about getting emails, etc. This has no other purpose than examining motive.

machinecoffee 7y ago

> which is the integrity of the single market and solidarity with Ireland, which is a member state. It's a sad indictment on my country that the EU seems to care more about the Good Friday agreement than what seems like a majority of the current Johnson backing Conservative MPs (and I'm not even sure about Labour).

thefringthing 7y ago
Isn't the possibility of direct rule still looming with no government formed at Stormont for two years now? Direct rule seems like it would essentially be an abandonment of the Good Friday Agreement.
- disgruntledphd2 7y ago
  Yup, and this will be unavoidable in a no-deal Brexit situation, sadly.