6 ms·

For the masses? My family is doing fairly well for people in my generation and I've never ever briefly considered buying a car for more than 10k.

bryanlarsen 7y ago
And in a few years time, used ID.3's will be available for under 10K.
- pwagland 7y ago
  Probably more than a "few" I think that you will be looking at 5-7 for the cars to fall to under a third of new value. Although that depends on your definition of "a few"* I guess. * https://www.grammarphobia.com/blog/2010/05/how-much-is-a-few.html https://www.grammarphobia.com/blog/2010/05/how-much-is-a-few...
  - davidwren 7y ago
    Conventional wisdom seems to be that at best electric cars will depreciate at the same rate as ICEs or at worst their values will fall off a cliff, the reality is very different, at least in the short run * obviously this will change as production of newer cars ramps up. * https://fullycharged.show/blog/surprisingly-positive-news-on-electric-vehicle-depreciation/ https://fullycharged.show/blog/surprisingly-positive-news-on...
    - anentropic 7y ago
      The thing I'm curious about is how they will age I would guess the mechanical components, motors etc will potentially be more reliable than ICE But I worry about the batteries, if my laptop is anything to go by it seems like they will eventually die and will be expensive to replace
      - bluGill 7y ago
        Today's ICEs are very reliable and generally outlast the car body - assuming your follow the maintenance schedule. All the wear on the body will be the same: pot holes, salt, accidents... Motors won't have nearly as much maintenance (you still need to lube bearings), but the car will die based not on the method of motor power in most cases even if you don't do the maintenance. Batteries are a worry. Price has come down, but used electric cars are very cheap compared to the ICE cars because of this very reason. Until the market figures out how to replace the batteries at scale, and then buyers figure out how to account for the battery this will not change.
  - pjc50 7y ago
    Used Nissan Leaves seem to fall off a cliff. 2016 ones are already visible on ebay for under £10k.
    - Gibbon1 7y ago
      Yeah they have two things not going for them. Limited range and battery degradation issues. Also EV's tend to have rebates and tax write offs that reduce their actual purchase price significantly. Which probably also depresses resale prices.
    - serpix 7y ago
      Not having thermal management on the batteries does not work for an EV.
zaroth 7y ago
That’s a nice anecdote. The average new car selling price is over $30k (in the US).
- mbrumlow 7y ago
  I think the point is a used 10k car will almost always be more cost effective.
  - rasz 7y ago
    Bangeronomics make most sense only if you are willing to work on your own car.
    - vonmoltke 7y ago
      They make even less sense for complex, proprietary EVs.
    - beatgammit 7y ago
      Not really. For $10k, I got a car in really good condition with ~$60k miles, and most cars don't have issues until at least 100k miles, if not closer to 150k miles. My car has ~120k miles right now, and I've done very little aside from getting oil changes and having the factory service around 90k miles. My car cost ~$20k new, and I could sell it for $3-5k, so I'm already ahead if I sold and bought another $10k car today. Buying a new car only really makes sense if you're really interested in cutting edge technology or are very particular in the options you want. You can't really get a reasonable electric car used, so new is going to be your best bet there. However, you will pay more than if you buy a quality used car.
  - zaroth 7y ago
    Of course it will be, but isn’t that totally irrelevant? You can’t release a new type of used car!
  - justin66 7y ago
    It's difficult to generalize. A 10k luxury car is a high-risk proposition, unlikely to be cost effective. (cost of maintenance, insurance, etc.)
justin66 7y ago
> For the masses? My family is doing fairly well for people in my generation and I've never ever briefly considered buying a car for more than 10k. Identify your reasons for that and ask yourself if they're representative of how "the masses" tend to think about their purchases. (the average used car price in the US is over $20k)
- 14 7y ago
  This was my thoughts exactly. I am fairly well off comparatively I make way over minimum wage and there is no way I would consider a car that expensive. Affordable to the masses is more like $20,000 Canadian. That would be the price I could call affordable to the masses. Even a 20,000$ purchase would be hard for most people in my town. As someone who has not looked at EV car prices if this is what they call affordable I guess am still a long way off from owning an EV.
  - beefalo 7y ago
    EVs will not be affordable for the masses even if they are able to get under $20k since home ownership is still effectively a prerequisite for owning an EV right now.
GuB-42 7y ago
10k for a new car is possible but you are quite limited. I am not even sure that Volkswagen has a single car under that price point, except maybe for end-of-life entry-level models. Dacia prices start at 8k, and their cars are decent, but they are comparatively old tech. It means they won't get the latest advances regarding fuel economy and the low price is partly offset by higher fuel costs. All in all, expect to pay around 15k for a no-thrills new car. Obviously, used cars are cheaper but that's apple to oranges comparison. We don't know how much the ID.3 will cost used, so it's pointless.

bryanlarsen 7y ago

And in a few years time, used ID.3's will be available for under 10K.

pwagland 7y ago
Probably more than a "few" I think that you will be looking at 5-7 for the cars to fall to under a third of new value. Although that depends on your definition of "a few"* I guess. * https://www.grammarphobia.com/blog/2010/05/how-much-is-a-few.html https://www.grammarphobia.com/blog/2010/05/how-much-is-a-few...
- davidwren 7y ago
  Conventional wisdom seems to be that at best electric cars will depreciate at the same rate as ICEs or at worst their values will fall off a cliff, the reality is very different, at least in the short run * obviously this will change as production of newer cars ramps up. * https://fullycharged.show/blog/surprisingly-positive-news-on-electric-vehicle-depreciation/ https://fullycharged.show/blog/surprisingly-positive-news-on...
  - anentropic 7y ago
    The thing I'm curious about is how they will age I would guess the mechanical components, motors etc will potentially be more reliable than ICE But I worry about the batteries, if my laptop is anything to go by it seems like they will eventually die and will be expensive to replace
    - bluGill 7y ago
      Today's ICEs are very reliable and generally outlast the car body - assuming your follow the maintenance schedule. All the wear on the body will be the same: pot holes, salt, accidents... Motors won't have nearly as much maintenance (you still need to lube bearings), but the car will die based not on the method of motor power in most cases even if you don't do the maintenance. Batteries are a worry. Price has come down, but used electric cars are very cheap compared to the ICE cars because of this very reason. Until the market figures out how to replace the batteries at scale, and then buyers figure out how to account for the battery this will not change.
- pjc50 7y ago
  Used Nissan Leaves seem to fall off a cliff. 2016 ones are already visible on ebay for under £10k.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    Yeah they have two things not going for them. Limited range and battery degradation issues. Also EV's tend to have rebates and tax write offs that reduce their actual purchase price significantly. Which probably also depresses resale prices.
  - serpix 7y ago
    Not having thermal management on the batteries does not work for an EV.

zaroth 7y ago

That’s a nice anecdote. The average new car selling price is over $30k (in the US).

mbrumlow 7y ago
I think the point is a used 10k car will almost always be more cost effective.
- rasz 7y ago
  Bangeronomics make most sense only if you are willing to work on your own car.
  - vonmoltke 7y ago
    They make even less sense for complex, proprietary EVs.
  - beatgammit 7y ago
    Not really. For $10k, I got a car in really good condition with ~$60k miles, and most cars don't have issues until at least 100k miles, if not closer to 150k miles. My car has ~120k miles right now, and I've done very little aside from getting oil changes and having the factory service around 90k miles. My car cost ~$20k new, and I could sell it for $3-5k, so I'm already ahead if I sold and bought another $10k car today. Buying a new car only really makes sense if you're really interested in cutting edge technology or are very particular in the options you want. You can't really get a reasonable electric car used, so new is going to be your best bet there. However, you will pay more than if you buy a quality used car.
- zaroth 7y ago
  Of course it will be, but isn’t that totally irrelevant? You can’t release a new type of used car!
- justin66 7y ago
  It's difficult to generalize. A 10k luxury car is a high-risk proposition, unlikely to be cost effective. (cost of maintenance, insurance, etc.)

justin66 7y ago

> For the masses? My family is doing fairly well for people in my generation and I've never ever briefly considered buying a car for more than 10k. Identify your reasons for that and ask yourself if they're representative of how "the masses" tend to think about their purchases. (the average used car price in the US is over $20k)

14 7y ago
This was my thoughts exactly. I am fairly well off comparatively I make way over minimum wage and there is no way I would consider a car that expensive. Affordable to the masses is more like $20,000 Canadian. That would be the price I could call affordable to the masses. Even a 20,000$ purchase would be hard for most people in my town. As someone who has not looked at EV car prices if this is what they call affordable I guess am still a long way off from owning an EV.
- beefalo 7y ago
  EVs will not be affordable for the masses even if they are able to get under $20k since home ownership is still effectively a prerequisite for owning an EV right now.

GuB-42 7y ago

10k for a new car is possible but you are quite limited. I am not even sure that Volkswagen has a single car under that price point, except maybe for end-of-life entry-level models. Dacia prices start at 8k, and their cars are decent, but they are comparatively old tech. It means they won't get the latest advances regarding fuel economy and the low price is partly offset by higher fuel costs. All in all, expect to pay around 15k for a no-thrills new car. Obviously, used cars are cheaper but that's apple to oranges comparison. We don't know how much the ID.3 will cost used, so it's pointless.