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The attack yesterday on Saudi Arabia's major oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, are another recent highlight of the shift in the long-feared threa

The attack yesterday on Saudi Arabia's major oil processing facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, are another recent highlight of the shift in the long-feared threat potential that drones are starting to deliver on in actuality. James Krane, Middle East Energy Specialist, Rice University: "The asymmetry of this is obvious. You have one of the world’s largest consumers of advanced weaponry basically defenseless in the face of drones that cost less than $1,000 and from a country that is so poor and disorganized it is undergoing a cholera epidemic and widespread starvation." https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-fire-reaction/instant-view-reactions-to-attack-on-saudi-oil-facilities-idUSKBN1VZ0JP?il=0 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-aramco-fire-reactio...

mc32 7y ago
Unfortunately long term this has the potential to backfire. Yes, you get s surprise attack and cause asymmetric damage. If they continue doing this the Saudis (and any number of targets) are apt to respond overwhelmingly and decimate the source. They have the capacity to do so, it remains to be seen what they do in the face of this, if it were to continue.
- Blackthorn 7y ago
  What do you expect them to do, ask Saudi Arabia pretty please? They're fighting a war against a superior funded opponent. Half measures aren't going to win a war, they're going to be a slow loss. Go big or go home. They're going big. It might or might not work, but fighting a traditional sort of war is a 100% chance of losing.
- luckylion 7y ago
  > They have the capacity to do so, it remains to be seen what they do in the face of this, if it were to continue. Haven't they already been doing that, targeting hospitals and civilian infrastructure in their offensive war? To draw a line back to this attack sounds like putting effect before cause.
parsimo2010 7y ago
The attack on Saudi Arabia was claimed by the Houthis which are funded and trained by Iran, and they have Iranian special forces embedded in their units as well. The Houthis are basically a professional military, more than most people realize. They are fighting a proxy war for Iran. The drones that attacked the Saudi oil plants were almost certainly not consumer drones carrying hand grenades, they were actual military drones provided by Iran. The "asymmetry" that is mentioned is a great soundbite but isn't really accurate. The Houthis either control half or all of Yemen, depending on who you talk to. They aren't exactly pushovers. Compare that to Saudi Arabia, whose military is lazy and poorly trained. They rely on the US presence for security against real threats. Without the USA, they would almost certainly lose a fight against Iran. They are rich and have cool toys but it's laughable at how bad their training is. To expand, the Houthis likely used drones like this with 60 lbs of explosive stuffed in it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil. That's a far cry from the $1,000 drone that an academic from Rice University would have you believe.
- Ididntdothis 7y ago
  “ They are fighting a proxy war for Iran. ” People always think that people who are fighting on their home soil are fighting a proxy war for someone else but have no goals themselves . From what I have read they want to get rid of Saudi Arabia and Iran is helping them. But their main motivation is not Iran. It was the same in the Vietnam war. North Vietnam was supported by China and Russia but their main motivation was to get colonial powers out of the country.
  - parsimo2010 7y ago
    They may have their own reasons for fighting, but all their money and equipment is provided by Iran. If not for Iran's support, the civil war in Yemen and further conflict with Saudi Arabia could not have happened. Iran provided their support because the Houthis are accomplishing Iran's goals. So this is Iran's war fought using someone else's sons.
  - Merrill 7y ago
    The unification of North and South Yemen in 1990 was a mistake and there has been trouble ever since.

mc32 7y ago

Unfortunately long term this has the potential to backfire. Yes, you get s surprise attack and cause asymmetric damage. If they continue doing this the Saudis (and any number of targets) are apt to respond overwhelmingly and decimate the source. They have the capacity to do so, it remains to be seen what they do in the face of this, if it were to continue.

Blackthorn 7y ago
What do you expect them to do, ask Saudi Arabia pretty please? They're fighting a war against a superior funded opponent. Half measures aren't going to win a war, they're going to be a slow loss. Go big or go home. They're going big. It might or might not work, but fighting a traditional sort of war is a 100% chance of losing.
luckylion 7y ago
> They have the capacity to do so, it remains to be seen what they do in the face of this, if it were to continue. Haven't they already been doing that, targeting hospitals and civilian infrastructure in their offensive war? To draw a line back to this attack sounds like putting effect before cause.

parsimo2010 7y ago

The attack on Saudi Arabia was claimed by the Houthis which are funded and trained by Iran, and they have Iranian special forces embedded in their units as well. The Houthis are basically a professional military, more than most people realize. They are fighting a proxy war for Iran. The drones that attacked the Saudi oil plants were almost certainly not consumer drones carrying hand grenades, they were actual military drones provided by Iran. The "asymmetry" that is mentioned is a great soundbite but isn't really accurate. The Houthis either control half or all of Yemen, depending on who you talk to. They aren't exactly pushovers. Compare that to Saudi Arabia, whose military is lazy and poorly trained. They rely on the US presence for security against real threats. Without the USA, they would almost certainly lose a fight against Iran. They are rich and have cool toys but it's laughable at how bad their training is. To expand, the Houthis likely used drones like this with 60 lbs of explosive stuffed in it: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HESA_Ababil. That's a far cry from the $1,000 drone that an academic from Rice University would have you believe.

Ididntdothis 7y ago
“ They are fighting a proxy war for Iran. ” People always think that people who are fighting on their home soil are fighting a proxy war for someone else but have no goals themselves . From what I have read they want to get rid of Saudi Arabia and Iran is helping them. But their main motivation is not Iran. It was the same in the Vietnam war. North Vietnam was supported by China and Russia but their main motivation was to get colonial powers out of the country.
- parsimo2010 7y ago
  They may have their own reasons for fighting, but all their money and equipment is provided by Iran. If not for Iran's support, the civil war in Yemen and further conflict with Saudi Arabia could not have happened. Iran provided their support because the Houthis are accomplishing Iran's goals. So this is Iran's war fought using someone else's sons.
- Merrill 7y ago
  The unification of North and South Yemen in 1990 was a mistake and there has been trouble ever since.