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> The Center for Automotive Research and other firms focusing on the impact of new technology on the auto industry don't expect electric vehicles to account for

by ccorda 7y ago

> The Center for Automotive Research and other firms focusing on the impact of new technology on the auto industry don't expect electric vehicles to account for more than 10% of the sales market until the late 2020s. That's when electric vehicles could start to shake things up. Consider California [1], where it'll likely cross that in the next few years. 2015 | 1.7% 2016 | 1.9% 2017 | 2.6% 2018 | 4.7% 2019 | 5.6% Or Norway, where it is already at 48% [2] Both have higher gas prices and subsidies that help with TCO comparisons. But EV costs have lots of economies of scale yet to achieve. Hard to imagine it takes 10 more years for the rest of the country to catch up to California. [1] California New Car Dealer Association report Q2 19 https://electrek.co/2019/08/19/tesla-sales-electric-car-market-california-alive/ https://electrek.co/2019/08/19/tesla-sales-electric-car-mark... [2] https://insideevs.com/news/357526/june-2019-plugin-sales-norway/ https://insideevs.com/news/357526/june-2019-plugin-sales-nor...

rgbrenner 7y ago
> Hard to imagine it takes 10 more years for the rest of the country to catch up to California. At that rate, California won't surpass 10% until the mid-2020s--maybe 2024/5. Remember, it's already 2019 and in a few months, it'll be 2020. Late-2020s is only a 3-4 years past the mid-2020s.
- TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
  Is is reasonable to think the rate of change will increase?
  - flyingfences 7y ago
    To some extent, for some time. Consider the adoption bell curve; I think California has moved from the "innovators" stage to "early adopters" but the country as a whole has not. Consider also what the saturation point for electric cars will be in the near/medium term - I doubt that the other end of the bell curve is 100% adoption.
    - dougmany 7y ago
      Battery costs are coming down. When electric cars are cheaper than equivalent ICE cars, people will switch. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-15669301816202254.png https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-156... from here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-tesla https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-t...
  - tomatotomato37 7y ago
    Probably; the design of a radically different automobile model family takes around 4-5 years, which includes R&D, tooling, new supply chains, etc. This is masked by auto manufacturers constantly throwing out facelifts with a couple gimmicks glued on every year, but the majority of big changes usually come out on a decade basis. The Model 3 came out in 2017; if we assume conventional manufacturers started design of dedicated EV platforms during that time then we should start seeing a large burst of EV models coming out in 2021-2022, spurring demand. That will also probably be the do-or-die point for tesla to get their manufacturing squared away, since that's when the industrial juggernauts of Honda, VW, and the like will be retooled and coming online.
Gibbon1 7y ago
To me more telling last time I looked two years ago some zip codes in Santa Clara Valley, BEV were 10-15% of new car sales. I went and checked again. Now it's 20-30% See below[1]. The way I see that is people in those places don't have automotive needs that are that different[1] than elsewhere. And 20-30% of them find BEV's to be viable enough option. Take away BEV's are mainstream viable and not a niche product. [1] Figure 2. https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/CA-cityEV-Briefing-20180507.pdf https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/CA-city... [2] Though I suspect they are less sensitive to range and price than other places.
- chrisseaton 7y ago
  > The way I see that is people in those places don't have automotive needs that are that different[1] than elsewhere. They live in a huge, built-up, tech-heavy area that's urban for miles around, with sealed roads and a regular grid structure. Their automotive needs are completely different to someone living in an isolated rural location.
  - adrianN 7y ago
    Almost everybody lives in areas with sealed roads and electricity. I'm reasonably sure that the majority lives in areas that you'd classify as urban.
    - goodcanadian 7y ago
      Quick googling suggests that it is 79% in the U.S..
      - whenchamenia 7y ago
        Glad I am pert of the marginalized 21, who seems not to matter. 'Flyovers' are people too, dispite the sv bigotry.
        adrianN 7y ago
mhandley 7y ago
I wonder at what point most gas (petrol) stations start to be become uneconomical to run? As they start to close down, maybe range anxiety will start to become an issue for ICE vehicles. Is Norway getting close to this threshold already?
- LeifCarrotson 7y ago
  Gasoline is already something of a loss leader...they're really convenience stores with attached pumps. Though without the captive audience, and without the space and infrastructure to replace the pumps with electric chargers, I doubt that the convenience stores will have the same level of traffic.
  - thinkcontext 7y ago
    Agreed. Because it takes longer to charge than fill up with gas they won't be able to get sufficient volume.
    - ianlevesque 7y ago
      But if you are bored there longer you're more likely to buy something?
      - test6554 7y ago
        Perhaps they will charge extra money to charge a car at the full speed the car is capable of and hobble charging speed for a lower price.
        BrentOzar 7y ago
        > Perhaps they will charge extra money to charge a car at the full speed the car is capable of and hobble charging speed for a lower price. This would tie up their charging infrastructure and space for a longer time, making less money. Gas stations & charging venues are usually space-constrained because they're located on expensive real estate. Their goal is to maximize revenue and throughput in small spaces.
tyingq 7y ago
The popularity of pickup trucks in the US may hold this back a bit. I imagine the first trucks will have terrible range due to weight and lousy aerodynamics.
- Jimpulse 7y ago
  Tesla mentioned theirs wouldn't look like a traditional truck. I think their going with some futuristic looking which could help in the aero front.
  - tyingq 7y ago
    Could hurt sales...people like trucks that look like trucks.
    - matthewdgreen 7y ago
      Some people also like trucks with a crapload of torque, and electric motors will provide that.
Merrill 7y ago
>New Energy Vehicles (including full electric and hybrid cars) made up 7 per cent of total car sales in China during the second quarter of 2019, compared to 3 per cent in Europe and just 2 per cent in the United States. Chinese drivers bought about 350,000 NEVs versus about 100,000 in Europe. From "China remains in pole position for electric vehicle uptake despite cuts to subsidies" https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/09/05/electric_cars_canalys/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/09/05/electric_cars_canal...
nominated1 7y ago
Until you can charge and go in 5 minutes gas will still be appealing to many. Currently it looks like a step backwards. Like stopping to rest and feed the horses. Maybe if we had a universal battery and simple swap out solution. Something like a car wash where you drive onto a track and a machine swaps out the battery?

by ccorda 7y ago

rgbrenner 7y ago

> Hard to imagine it takes 10 more years for the rest of the country to catch up to California. At that rate, California won't surpass 10% until the mid-2020s--maybe 2024/5. Remember, it's already 2019 and in a few months, it'll be 2020. Late-2020s is only a 3-4 years past the mid-2020s.

TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
Is is reasonable to think the rate of change will increase?
- flyingfences 7y ago
  To some extent, for some time. Consider the adoption bell curve; I think California has moved from the "innovators" stage to "early adopters" but the country as a whole has not. Consider also what the saturation point for electric cars will be in the near/medium term - I doubt that the other end of the bell curve is 100% adoption.
  - dougmany 7y ago
    Battery costs are coming down. When electric cars are cheaper than equivalent ICE cars, people will switch. https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-15669301816202254.png https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2019/8/27/128006-156... from here https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-tesla https://seekingalpha.com/article/4288312-bulls-bears-wrong-t...
- tomatotomato37 7y ago
  Probably; the design of a radically different automobile model family takes around 4-5 years, which includes R&D, tooling, new supply chains, etc. This is masked by auto manufacturers constantly throwing out facelifts with a couple gimmicks glued on every year, but the majority of big changes usually come out on a decade basis. The Model 3 came out in 2017; if we assume conventional manufacturers started design of dedicated EV platforms during that time then we should start seeing a large burst of EV models coming out in 2021-2022, spurring demand. That will also probably be the do-or-die point for tesla to get their manufacturing squared away, since that's when the industrial juggernauts of Honda, VW, and the like will be retooled and coming online.

Gibbon1 7y ago

To me more telling last time I looked two years ago some zip codes in Santa Clara Valley, BEV were 10-15% of new car sales. I went and checked again. Now it's 20-30% See below[1]. The way I see that is people in those places don't have automotive needs that are that different[1] than elsewhere. And 20-30% of them find BEV's to be viable enough option. Take away BEV's are mainstream viable and not a niche product. [1] Figure 2. https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/CA-cityEV-Briefing-20180507.pdf https://theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/CA-city... [2] Though I suspect they are less sensitive to range and price than other places.

chrisseaton 7y ago
> The way I see that is people in those places don't have automotive needs that are that different[1] than elsewhere. They live in a huge, built-up, tech-heavy area that's urban for miles around, with sealed roads and a regular grid structure. Their automotive needs are completely different to someone living in an isolated rural location.
- adrianN 7y ago
  Almost everybody lives in areas with sealed roads and electricity. I'm reasonably sure that the majority lives in areas that you'd classify as urban.
  - goodcanadian 7y ago
    Quick googling suggests that it is 79% in the U.S..
    - whenchamenia 7y ago
      Glad I am pert of the marginalized 21, who seems not to matter. 'Flyovers' are people too, dispite the sv bigotry.
      - adrianN 7y ago

mhandley 7y ago

I wonder at what point most gas (petrol) stations start to be become uneconomical to run? As they start to close down, maybe range anxiety will start to become an issue for ICE vehicles. Is Norway getting close to this threshold already?

LeifCarrotson 7y ago
Gasoline is already something of a loss leader...they're really convenience stores with attached pumps. Though without the captive audience, and without the space and infrastructure to replace the pumps with electric chargers, I doubt that the convenience stores will have the same level of traffic.
- thinkcontext 7y ago
  Agreed. Because it takes longer to charge than fill up with gas they won't be able to get sufficient volume.
  - ianlevesque 7y ago
    But if you are bored there longer you're more likely to buy something?
    - test6554 7y ago
      Perhaps they will charge extra money to charge a car at the full speed the car is capable of and hobble charging speed for a lower price.
      - BrentOzar 7y ago
        > Perhaps they will charge extra money to charge a car at the full speed the car is capable of and hobble charging speed for a lower price. This would tie up their charging infrastructure and space for a longer time, making less money. Gas stations & charging venues are usually space-constrained because they're located on expensive real estate. Their goal is to maximize revenue and throughput in small spaces.

tyingq 7y ago

The popularity of pickup trucks in the US may hold this back a bit. I imagine the first trucks will have terrible range due to weight and lousy aerodynamics.

Jimpulse 7y ago
Tesla mentioned theirs wouldn't look like a traditional truck. I think their going with some futuristic looking which could help in the aero front.
- tyingq 7y ago
  Could hurt sales...people like trucks that look like trucks.
  - matthewdgreen 7y ago
    Some people also like trucks with a crapload of torque, and electric motors will provide that.

Merrill 7y ago

>New Energy Vehicles (including full electric and hybrid cars) made up 7 per cent of total car sales in China during the second quarter of 2019, compared to 3 per cent in Europe and just 2 per cent in the United States. Chinese drivers bought about 350,000 NEVs versus about 100,000 in Europe. From "China remains in pole position for electric vehicle uptake despite cuts to subsidies" https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/09/05/electric_cars_canalys/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2019/09/05/electric_cars_canal...

nominated1 7y ago

Until you can charge and go in 5 minutes gas will still be appealing to many. Currently it looks like a step backwards. Like stopping to rest and feed the horses. Maybe if we had a universal battery and simple swap out solution. Something like a car wash where you drive onto a track and a machine swaps out the battery?