4 ms·
They will be in Regus/IWG the next week, and a week after that will have forgotten that WeWork ever existed.
by goatinaboat 7y ago
They will be in Regus/IWG the next week, and a week after that will have forgotten that WeWork ever existed.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- adventured 7y agoIWG is tiny (a mere $3b in revenue; $4b-$5b market cap), they'd never land all of WeWork's customer base or WeWork itself. They'd trivially be outbid. SoftBank would acquire WeWork and continue operations before they'd let the business go to a small company like IWG or watch WeWork get acquired for ~$500m-$1b (which is all someone like IWG could afford). Far larger players like SoftBank, Blackstone or KKR would be all over scooping up the bones of WeWork. There's certainly no scenario where WeWork doesn't end up in the belly of a private equity company, or a large real-estate holding company. The next recession will destroy them. They'll be lucky if they survive even outside of a recessionary environment.
- goatinaboat 7y agoIWG is tiny This analysis looks very different if you do it not in dollars but in sq ft, or in desks. IWG is much bigger than WeWork, but realistically valued.
- empath75 7y agoIWG has 10x the total square feet to rent that We Work has.
- d883kd8 7y agoWeWork is on pace to hit ~3-4b revenue this year
- joncrane 7y agoDoes Regus/IWG have the capacity to absorb the demand?
- runako 7y agoApparently the two companies are roughly the same size in terms of square footage under management. (IIRC IWG is a little bigger.) So not likely IWG could absorb significant percentages of WeWork customers on short notice.
- YawningAngel 7y agoIf WeWork goes under there are going to be large amounts of co-working space going cheap.
- hdpq 7y ago...so short CRE REITs, am i right?
- YawningAngel 7y agoI don't advocate active trading unless you have substantial non public information, and I don't think this meets my non-public criterion
- jessaustin 7y agoStay out of REITs anyway; once they have your money they essentially never have to give it back. I can't imagine how something so illiquid could be shorted in the first place.
- joncrane 7y agoAren't REIT mutual funds the most likely vehicle for a retail investor to invest in REITs?
- hiccuphippo 7y agoThat's a good problem to face.