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If oil demand falls a lot of tar sands and offshore and fracking and other hard to get oil will become uneconomical to extract, causing (paradoxically) supply t

by api 7y ago

If oil demand falls a lot of tar sands and offshore and fracking and other hard to get oil will become uneconomical to extract, causing (paradoxically) supply to appear to contract too. The oil age could ratchet down via a series of price spikes and contractions just as it ratcheted up via price spikes and expansions.

Gibbon1 7y ago
Thing I read about the history of oil is energy return on investment went from about 125:1 in 1920 to about 10:1 now and tar sands are worse than that. If countries start slapping carbon taxes on oil, you can quickly see where that goes.
- api 7y ago
  It costs so much less to drive an EV per mile largely because we get electricity from sources with a much higher EROEI than present day oil. Gas, coal, solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro are all much better. The low energy return of current oil is priced in. BTW it's not just obtaining the oil but refining it. Oil refineries use a ton of power usually from electricity, gas, or by burning some of the oil itself. Heavier oil like tar sands and shale takes more energy to refine, as does high sulfur oil. Tar sands is so bad I've heard it described as being almost more a way of very indirectly converting other sources of energy into oil than a source of energy.
  - Gibbon1 7y ago
    Yes. From an energy efficiency point of view we'd be better off burning the oil used to make gasoline in a thermal power plant. Your comment about Tar Sands reminds me of a quote I read a long time ago about the price of coal being linked strongly to the price of diesel. Not to mention fracking boom is just a way to turn free central bank loans into Nat Gas.
quaquaqua1 7y ago
I think new uses and new users will continue to abound, so I don't think humans will radically reduce their consumption. One evidence of this is just the sheer number of cars on the road these days. Human population is increasing, and an abundance of cheap ICE cars means everyone is driving to work at least in suburban areas. In the past, busses and bikes were selected because cars weren't economical for certain individuals. Now nearly everyone at our office drives a car by themselves to work. No more car pooling, biking, ubering, bus, train, walking, etc.
- circlefavshape 7y ago
  Where do you work? That is not the case at anyplace I've ever worked
  - quaquaqua1 7y ago
    In Nassau County NY where the majority of buildings here are either single family homes or corporate office buildings with giant parking lots. Of course just 30 miles east you have NYC where probably less than 5% of people drive to work or own a car, period. But on a geographical basis, most of this population center is designed for cars and it is very common for a 1 hour trip (60 miles) to take 2.5 hours during rush hour(s).

by api 7y ago

Gibbon1 7y ago

Thing I read about the history of oil is energy return on investment went from about 125:1 in 1920 to about 10:1 now and tar sands are worse than that. If countries start slapping carbon taxes on oil, you can quickly see where that goes.

api 7y ago
It costs so much less to drive an EV per mile largely because we get electricity from sources with a much higher EROEI than present day oil. Gas, coal, solar, wind, nuclear, and hydro are all much better. The low energy return of current oil is priced in. BTW it's not just obtaining the oil but refining it. Oil refineries use a ton of power usually from electricity, gas, or by burning some of the oil itself. Heavier oil like tar sands and shale takes more energy to refine, as does high sulfur oil. Tar sands is so bad I've heard it described as being almost more a way of very indirectly converting other sources of energy into oil than a source of energy.
- Gibbon1 7y ago
  Yes. From an energy efficiency point of view we'd be better off burning the oil used to make gasoline in a thermal power plant. Your comment about Tar Sands reminds me of a quote I read a long time ago about the price of coal being linked strongly to the price of diesel. Not to mention fracking boom is just a way to turn free central bank loans into Nat Gas.

quaquaqua1 7y ago

I think new uses and new users will continue to abound, so I don't think humans will radically reduce their consumption. One evidence of this is just the sheer number of cars on the road these days. Human population is increasing, and an abundance of cheap ICE cars means everyone is driving to work at least in suburban areas. In the past, busses and bikes were selected because cars weren't economical for certain individuals. Now nearly everyone at our office drives a car by themselves to work. No more car pooling, biking, ubering, bus, train, walking, etc.

circlefavshape 7y ago
Where do you work? That is not the case at anyplace I've ever worked
- quaquaqua1 7y ago
  In Nassau County NY where the majority of buildings here are either single family homes or corporate office buildings with giant parking lots. Of course just 30 miles east you have NYC where probably less than 5% of people drive to work or own a car, period. But on a geographical basis, most of this population center is designed for cars and it is very common for a 1 hour trip (60 miles) to take 2.5 hours during rush hour(s).