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What happens if the two groups disagree on the odds of impact? Because one has either more precise or just different telemetry than the other?
by oh_sigh 7y ago
What happens if the two groups disagree on the odds of impact? Because one has either more precise or just different telemetry than the other?
- safsafasf 7y agoThere's not much to disagree on the odds. Trajectories are known, uncertainties too and therefore probabilities of collisions can be calculated. Any disagreement here is easy to reconcile, whose assumptions and methods are more accurate? The disagreement is on the importance of the odds. SpaceX might be OK with a 1:10000 (or whatever) chance of collision, the Europeans want it lower. The Europeans could in the future force the issue. Move, or we'll fine you and forbid you from launching off of European sites and ban EU companies from using SpaceX.
- greglindahl 7y agoTrajectories have measurement errors.
- safsafasf 7y agoIndeed. we wouldn't need safety margins without errors.
- hgoel 7y agoConsidering the cost of launching on Ariane compared to Falcon 9, especially with rideshare upcoming, I don't think EU could ban companies from flying with SpaceX without hurting their own commercial satellite market to an extent.
- DoctorOetker 7y agoif there's disagreement on the odds, the entity on the confident side should bet the total value of the other satellite + usage delay costs, in escrow. safe? let Musk put his money where his mouth is.