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> There is no single development, in either technology or management technique, which by itself promises even one order-of-magnitude improvement within a decade
by i_s 7y ago
> There is no single development, in either technology or management technique, which by itself promises even one order-of-magnitude improvement within a decade in productivity, in reliability, in simplicity.
Let's say it's true. Why should we care? Why set the bar at 10x, downplaying smaller (1.5x, 2x, 3x, etc) improvements?
Person 1: Hey, check out this tool that makes creating small web sites 3 times faster.
Person 2: Hah only 3 times faster? Who cares?
- marcosdumay 7y agoBecause if there were a few techniques that improved our efficiency 10 times either, we should make it our top priority to find and adopt those, because a couple of those are already a gamechanger. But 1.1x to 3x? There is a huge lot of those. People do say "Only 3 times faster? Why care?" all the time, and go focus on some other development.
- i_s 7y ago> Because if there were a few techniques that improved our efficiency 10 times either, we should make it our top priority to find and adopt those, because a couple of those are already a gamechanger. You're not really addressing the question, just talking about an easy hypothetical where no one could disagree. What decision would one make differently if sold on No Silver Bullet (NSB)? I can't think of one. Would someone not woke on NSB prefer a 3x improvement over a 10x improvement, for example? Of course not.
- marcosdumay 7y ago> What decision would one make differently if sold on No Silver Bullet (NSB)? If silver bullets were available, developers and researchers should let conservative changes aside and focus on studying high risk ideas.