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Interesting analysis using comments/rider scores. 10% improvement over 6 months is actually pretty good, though. Even if that rate slows as trickier edge case

Interesting analysis using comments/rider scores. 10% improvement over 6 months is actually pretty good, though. Even if that rate slows as trickier edge cases get handled, It still implies early 2020s for true driverless readiness in select locations. That's pretty much on track with overall predictions for the autonomous market.

bertil 7y ago
I think standard car manufacturers and insurances would be in awe if their car safety improved at that rate.
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
  Well, there's a ceiling of 100% safety, so it's diminishing returns after a certain point.
mactrey 7y ago
10 percentage points, 25% relative improvement (40% non-5 stars to 30%), seems quite good to me. Although I wonder if seasonality is important here - obviously Phoenix isn't Minnesota but could driving conditions have been worse in Q1 compared to this summer, from the perspective of a self-driving car?
- mdorazio 7y ago
  Definitely could be a factor. Other drivers might also be more used to seeing them on the road, which could have a positive impact in some way. I think the overall trend is probably pretty strong at that level of improvement, though.
IshKebab 7y ago
That's assuming their rate of improvement is constant and there isn't a long tail of difficulty. But there is. The long tail of difficult driving situations is very very long. An example from my most recent drive: I drove through a common where cows graze. I doubt a driverless car is programmed to slow down near cows. The only solution I can see is to whitelist roads and start with the simplest (motorways/highways) then gradually expand to more and more roads. I guess that's kind of what they're doing - suburban America is very easy (although you still have pedestrians and cyclists to deal with unlike motorways), and maybe whitelisting is the cause of the routing complaint.
jacques_chester 7y ago
If you get nagged to answer questions every time you give a 4/5 you eventually stop giving 4/5 and 5/5 everything because you just want to get on with your day. The whole "if it's not amaaaaazing it's terrible" thing is idiotic.

bertil 7y ago

I think standard car manufacturers and insurances would be in awe if their car safety improved at that rate.

onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
Well, there's a ceiling of 100% safety, so it's diminishing returns after a certain point.

mactrey 7y ago

10 percentage points, 25% relative improvement (40% non-5 stars to 30%), seems quite good to me. Although I wonder if seasonality is important here - obviously Phoenix isn't Minnesota but could driving conditions have been worse in Q1 compared to this summer, from the perspective of a self-driving car?

mdorazio 7y ago
Definitely could be a factor. Other drivers might also be more used to seeing them on the road, which could have a positive impact in some way. I think the overall trend is probably pretty strong at that level of improvement, though.

IshKebab 7y ago

That's assuming their rate of improvement is constant and there isn't a long tail of difficulty. But there is. The long tail of difficult driving situations is very very long. An example from my most recent drive: I drove through a common where cows graze. I doubt a driverless car is programmed to slow down near cows. The only solution I can see is to whitelist roads and start with the simplest (motorways/highways) then gradually expand to more and more roads. I guess that's kind of what they're doing - suburban America is very easy (although you still have pedestrians and cyclists to deal with unlike motorways), and maybe whitelisting is the cause of the routing complaint.

jacques_chester 7y ago

If you get nagged to answer questions every time you give a 4/5 you eventually stop giving 4/5 and 5/5 everything because you just want to get on with your day. The whole "if it's not amaaaaazing it's terrible" thing is idiotic.