5 ms·

And suppose it's 1 million lives per year after a 10-year ramp-up period?

by sk5t 7y ago

adrianN 7y ago
That's pretty unlikely.
- sk5t 7y ago
  Okay, but is it impossible? Millions of people saturating their lungs with largely unstudied vapors from a variety of devices...
  - adrianN 7y ago
    Almost all chemicals we use are largely unstudied for their long term effects. So far we were relatively lucky.
stjohnswarts 7y ago
Why would there be a "ramp up" period. The number of vapes is going up rapidly, but the death rate would likely stay the same unless someone started suddenly spiking the vape liquid with lead or something. If anything it would go down as the possible culprits causing deaths are discovered and eliminated.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
dmix 7y ago
Just like smoking it's important that those 10yrs have context around the deaths, assuming they ramp up, it's not just all vape usage = high risk. It's how you use it too. I personally quit smoking cigarettes and moved from 24mg->3mg of nicotine over a few months (with zero withdrawl symptoms). 3mg is about as low as you can go. You can't do that with smoking cigarettes, "light" cigarettes is mostly just a flavour profile with only small differences in health and nicotine levels. With cigarettes there were plenty of people who smoked a pack or two a day, those people on a 20yr span are at a higher risk. You see some people who smoke these massive vape clouds and they smoke constantly with high nicotine counts + high heat. Those are all voluntary options and the devices/juice is getting better with time. Currently nicotine salts are taking over in vape shops, which are smaller devices, smaller amounts of liquid but higher nicotine-liquid ratios, and they have a much smaller exhale clouds which I find easier on the chest and way less anti-social when outside (the exhaled cloud is 10-50% of the size of a normal cigarette, and way smaller than traditional vapes). Finally, there's second-hand smoke. There was a study showing vape smoke creates extremely small or non-existent second-hand transmission compared to cigarettes. Cigarette smoke stays in the air in a inhale-able state far longer. > According to Drexel University toxicology expert Igor Burstyn, while the contents of e-cig vapor inhaled by users “justifies surveillance,” there is so little contamination in exhaled vapor that there is unlikely to be any risk. https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-14-18 https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1... ^ This is a big deal for anyone who grew up with a parent who smoked around them like I did.
- macintux 7y ago
  It’s hard to get enthusiastic about something deadly and noxious just because it’s less noxious than something truly awful. Walking behind someone who was vaping recently is one of the least pleasant experiences I’ve had for a while.
  - dmix 7y ago
    A whole lot of society and social policy is about lesser of evils. It's about being realistic and practical. Which is something far more policy should be conscious of, instead of some idealistic perfect world you wish to impose on other people. Not to mention people could just as quickly harm themselves going to a 7/11 every day to eat carbs or driving a motorcycle or drinking alcohol or engaging in 'extreme' sports. But we people do those things anyway even though there's plenty of science to show it's dumb. Especially if those 'evils' are a) entirely non-violent and voluntary only affecting the individual and b) are not going away ala drugs and the giant shift towards harm reduction. People seem to be mixing up the growing pains of a extremely fast-growing new industry and the long-term realities once the legal, health, business, and administrative systems mature and adapt. The rush to immediately ban everything, well before we fully understand it and/or have experimented with less freedom/fun-destroying strategies, while also accurate measures of usage and risk, doesn't help anyone. I will admit though, the 'think of the kids' people are making quite an effective stir.
    - macintux 7y ago
      It certainly seems like the vape industry set back social progress on this front significantly. Cigarettes stopped being cool quite a while ago, and smoking is almost never allowed indoors anymore, but hey, look these e-cigarettes are safe and trendy and all the cool kids are doing them.
      - dr_dshiv 7y ago
        Social progress is prohibition or freedom of choice? What's the harm?

And suppose it's 1 million lives per year after a 10-year ramp-up period?

by sk5t 7y ago

And suppose it's 1 million lives per year after a 10-year ramp-up period?

adrianN 7y ago

That's pretty unlikely.

sk5t 7y ago
Okay, but is it impossible? Millions of people saturating their lungs with largely unstudied vapors from a variety of devices...
- adrianN 7y ago
  Almost all chemicals we use are largely unstudied for their long term effects. So far we were relatively lucky.

stjohnswarts 7y ago

Why would there be a "ramp up" period. The number of vapes is going up rapidly, but the death rate would likely stay the same unless someone started suddenly spiking the vape liquid with lead or something. If anything it would go down as the possible culprits causing deaths are discovered and eliminated.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

dmix 7y ago

Just like smoking it's important that those 10yrs have context around the deaths, assuming they ramp up, it's not just all vape usage = high risk. It's how you use it too. I personally quit smoking cigarettes and moved from 24mg->3mg of nicotine over a few months (with zero withdrawl symptoms). 3mg is about as low as you can go. You can't do that with smoking cigarettes, "light" cigarettes is mostly just a flavour profile with only small differences in health and nicotine levels. With cigarettes there were plenty of people who smoked a pack or two a day, those people on a 20yr span are at a higher risk. You see some people who smoke these massive vape clouds and they smoke constantly with high nicotine counts + high heat. Those are all voluntary options and the devices/juice is getting better with time. Currently nicotine salts are taking over in vape shops, which are smaller devices, smaller amounts of liquid but higher nicotine-liquid ratios, and they have a much smaller exhale clouds which I find easier on the chest and way less anti-social when outside (the exhaled cloud is 10-50% of the size of a normal cigarette, and way smaller than traditional vapes). Finally, there's second-hand smoke. There was a study showing vape smoke creates extremely small or non-existent second-hand transmission compared to cigarettes. Cigarette smoke stays in the air in a inhale-able state far longer. > According to Drexel University toxicology expert Igor Burstyn, while the contents of e-cig vapor inhaled by users “justifies surveillance,” there is so little contamination in exhaled vapor that there is unlikely to be any risk. https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2458-14-18 https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1... ^ This is a big deal for anyone who grew up with a parent who smoked around them like I did.

macintux 7y ago
It’s hard to get enthusiastic about something deadly and noxious just because it’s less noxious than something truly awful. Walking behind someone who was vaping recently is one of the least pleasant experiences I’ve had for a while.
- dmix 7y ago
  A whole lot of society and social policy is about lesser of evils. It's about being realistic and practical. Which is something far more policy should be conscious of, instead of some idealistic perfect world you wish to impose on other people. Not to mention people could just as quickly harm themselves going to a 7/11 every day to eat carbs or driving a motorcycle or drinking alcohol or engaging in 'extreme' sports. But we people do those things anyway even though there's plenty of science to show it's dumb. Especially if those 'evils' are a) entirely non-violent and voluntary only affecting the individual and b) are not going away ala drugs and the giant shift towards harm reduction. People seem to be mixing up the growing pains of a extremely fast-growing new industry and the long-term realities once the legal, health, business, and administrative systems mature and adapt. The rush to immediately ban everything, well before we fully understand it and/or have experimented with less freedom/fun-destroying strategies, while also accurate measures of usage and risk, doesn't help anyone. I will admit though, the 'think of the kids' people are making quite an effective stir.
  - macintux 7y ago
    It certainly seems like the vape industry set back social progress on this front significantly. Cigarettes stopped being cool quite a while ago, and smoking is almost never allowed indoors anymore, but hey, look these e-cigarettes are safe and trendy and all the cool kids are doing them.
    - dr_dshiv 7y ago
      Social progress is prohibition or freedom of choice? What's the harm?