4 ms·
I'll bet you $1000 that most people will still regularly use keyboards in 2031. Isn't there a website somewhere where we can do this?
by roadnottaken 16y ago
I'll bet you $1000 that most people will still regularly use keyboards in 2031. Isn't there a website somewhere where we can do this?
- pingswept 16y agohttp://www.longbets.org/ http://www.longbets.org/ Also, most people don't use keyboards now, unless you count cellphone keypads or restrict "people" to mean "people with income above $1000 per year" or something like that.
- cryptoz 16y agoHaha okay, I will probably take that bet! But we need to decide on more specific definitions, as hinted by pingswept. What defines a keyboard, and what defines "most people"? Does "keyboard" include both physical and virtual keyboards? Most people on planet Earth, or most people in the USA? Or by income? If we can settle these specifics, I think we should indeed register at longbets.
- roadnottaken 16y agoMaybe we should just do a HN Poll. Note: I'm also betting on the fact that I'll have an extra $1000 by 2031. :)
- roadnottaken 16y agoHN Poll: http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2076992 http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2076992
- ronnoch 16y agoWe'll probably still be using some sort of device that involves tapping keys with our fingers. But I'd be very surprised if that device is anything like current keyboards. (And then there's the small chance that brain-computer interfaces will allow us to type with our minds, but I'm not betting on that.)
- roadnottaken 16y agoWorth considering that QWERTY keyboards have been the method-of-choice for text-entry for over 100 years. I'm not saying it will last forever, necessarily, but it's a very efficient technique. Call me old-fashioned, but I don't see it being supplanted by voice-transcription or gestures or whatever for a very long time.
- ronnoch 16y agoAgreed. I'm predicting more along the lines of really good on-screen keyboards, or ThinkGeek's laser keyboard (http://www.thinkgeek.com/computing/keyboards-mice/8193/ http://www.thinkgeek.com/computing/keyboards-mice/8193/), or something entirely new but still in that vein. In other words, keeping what works but evolving past the big physical slab of plastic. > Call me old-fashioned, but I don't see it being supplanted by voice-transcription or gestures or whatever for a very long time. Well, we can type way faster than we can talk, so even if voice transcription were perfected, it would still be impractical.
- wtracy 16y agoIf you said most engineers I would agree with you. If you said most secretaries, I might still agree with you. But most people won't. (An awful lot of construction workers and truck drivers don't regularly use keyboards, even today.) Don't confuse your workflow with the rest of the world's.
- neutronicus 16y agoDon't forget - most people in any sort of school - something every one in every generation has to do.
- jonhendry 16y agoI bet truck drivers do, especially drivers with terminals in their trucks.
- listic 16y agoIntrade: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intrade
- gwern 16y agoIntrade doesn't accept arbitrary contracts, wouldn't accept this one as currently too ill-defined and too long-term, and depending on how their fees work may make a 20-year bet way too expensive.
- ciupicri 16y agoMaybe http://inklingmarkets.com/ http://inklingmarkets.com/