6 ms·

CES2011: The end of the PC era

138 points by roadnottaken 16y ago

kenjackson 16y ago
Intel's arch enemy has been AMD and IBM in the past -- and MS has supported running on architectures for both of those companies over Intel in the past. Remember that x86-64 came from AMD and Intel supported it only after it was clear that it was going to be the 64bit architecture, not Itanium. And Intel was pretty POed that MS went with IBM over Intel for XBox360. My point, these things happened in the past and will continue to happen. The end of the PC era began with the emergence of the web. Everything else we're seeing a simply a side-effect of the web. Ironically, MS saw this coming 15 years ago, and their attempts at slowing it may have inadvertantly accelerated it.
blinkingled 16y ago
When is the end of jumping the gun going to begin? :p Some people are just too eager to see the PC die - rest assured that it will some day but you need to be a bit more patient. Windows on ARM or ARM based tablet announcements do not make a PC dead - not so fast.
- irons 16y ago
  The PC doesn't have to die for the PC era to gracefully decline, any more than Henry Ford had to personally shoot every horse.
  - threepointone 16y ago
    [OT] That's a brilliant way of putting it, and had me in chuckles. Thanks for driving the point home :)
    - iamdave 16y ago
      Henry Ford... "Driving" the point home. Oh you guys..
      - deleted 16y ago
        [deleted]
  - cma 16y ago
    But for horses to have prevailed even a little longer, someone would have had to have monkey-wrenched an awful lot of cars (IE6).
  - blinkingled 16y ago
    So it's not really an END of the PC Era as the article proclaims but merely a beginning of the end?
zmanian 16y ago
Whats the era after the PC called? Is this mobile computing era? Or the ubi-comp era? I'm inclined towards the latter.
- metageek 16y ago
  PC++.
- junkbit 16y ago
  Augmented Reality
  - nooneelse 16y ago
    Not yet. One important thing about real reality is the persistence. Looking through a pocket-able screen can give you a window into augmented reality, but there is a lack of persistence to that user interface. Afaik the only thing that will really bring about an era of augmented reality is good huds that carry little to no social stigma.
potency 16y ago
I disagree. The PC era is evolving, not ending. How many people still have and use a traditional desktop or laptop computer at home? Microsoft is filling a growing demand for an OS on smaller form factor devices by supporting ARM processors with the next release of Windows, but the traditional PC market is still alive and kicking, its just not "cool" anymore; it's seen as more of a utilitarian tool than a novelty at this point, whereas smartphones and iTablets currently retain the novelty factor, thus their pervasiveness at CES.
- pohl 16y ago
  I hope you don't mind. I just thought I'd try this on for size... I disagree. The Mainframe era is evolving, not ending. How many people still have and use a mainframe when they interact with their bank? PCs are filling a growing demand for an OS on a smaller form factor, but the traditional mainframe market is still alive and kicking, its just not "cool" anymore; it's seen as more of a utilitarian tool than a novelty at this point, whereas PCs currently retain the novelty factor, thus their pervasiveness at BigIronExpo. Yup. I actually recall people making this argument back in those days. And they were right in a sense: big iron still exists in its niche, after all. Regardless, the PC revolution was still a massive shift — large enough to justify the rise of the PCs as heralding the demise of big iron.
  - nihilocrat 16y ago
    When I saw the iPad launched I was very concerned we are moving towards a market of consumer-only devices; devices which you can't use creatively to make content, program applications, etc.. Things like programming will be considered a "specialist" activity and new generations of nerds will have nothing to cut their teeth on because the only PCs are development workstations in corporate offices. Consumer computing will turn into pressing buttons and seeing magic happen, with no ability for curious people to figure out what's going on behind the scenes or modify it. A good litmus test is : can you use applications on the device to make entirely new applications for that device? You can do this on a Ti-86 calculator, but not on an iPad (please correct me if I'm wrong). I'm not entirely convinced things will pan out like this, but the thought still occurred to me.
roadnottaken 16y ago
The PC era won't end as long as people need to use keyboards to input text. A lot of home/casual computing might evolve away from PCs, but they'll always be on your desk at work and I'm guessing most people will keep at least one traditional desktop/laptop at home for decades to come.
- cryptoz 16y ago
  > I'm guessing most people will keep at least one traditional desktop/laptop at home for decades to come. I think you're being very shortsighted. "Most people" haven't even had a laptop for a single decade yet. Most people have had one for 1-10 years I'd say. Also, "most people" haven't had desktops for more than a decade and a half. What on Earth makes you think these form factors / devices will still exist in most people's homes for decades?! To me, "decades" implies at least 20 years.... So do you think, in year 2031, we'll still use desktop computers? That's crazy. No, we will have moved on. Keyboards will be out-phased for most users by 2031. I image maybe devs will still use them, and they'll be common in specialty scenarios, but they won't be for "most users". > they'll always be on your desk at work Also shortsighted. Workstations will evolve too, even if this is slower.
  - roadnottaken 16y ago
    I'll bet you $1000 that most people will still regularly use keyboards in 2031. Isn't there a website somewhere where we can do this?
    - pingswept 16y ago
      http://www.longbets.org/ http://www.longbets.org/ Also, most people don't use keyboards now, unless you count cellphone keypads or restrict "people" to mean "people with income above $1000 per year" or something like that.
    - cryptoz 16y ago
      Haha okay, I will probably take that bet! But we need to decide on more specific definitions, as hinted by pingswept. What defines a keyboard, and what defines "most people"? Does "keyboard" include both physical and virtual keyboards? Most people on planet Earth, or most people in the USA? Or by income? If we can settle these specifics, I think we should indeed register at longbets.
deleted 16y ago
[deleted]
code_duck 16y ago
I think what I'll be using in 5 years is a 4 ghz device the size of my phone, which can be connected to external displays and input devices. I can already use bluetooth keyboards and mice with my phone. Once it can attach to a 1900x1200 monitor I won't need anything else.
- sorbus 16y ago
  I would think that a 2 or 3 Ghz device with between four and eight cores would be more likely. However, everything else you suggest seems spot on - or at least I would hope it to be spot on, not being a time traveler.
- roadnottaken 16y ago
  Very interesting prediction. That's the first serious alternative to traditional desktops that I've ever considered. Essentially you're using your phone/mobile-computer as a desktop when you need it... so you're not really moving away from Desktop computing. But I could see this taking hold.
  - code_duck 16y ago
    Yeah, I don't see the need to use a desk going away any time soon after all. Laptop docks are already popular due to this, why not mobile device docks that work the same way?
- bryanlarsen 16y ago
  It might take less than 5 years. Both Motorola and Lenovo introduced an Android phone with a "laptop dock". Google for the "motorola atrix dock". It'll be a little while before it's useful, but it doesn't look like it'll take 5 years.
  - code_duck 16y ago
    It might be that long before we get what I really want, a monitor that rolls up into a little scroll I can stick in my pocket!
- 16y ago
yread 16y ago
Who were the Windows-exclusive OEM customers? I thought all of them tried releasing Linux netbooks they just didn't sell
- kprobst 16y ago
  I have an HP mini110 that runs Windows 7 32-bit. I got it as a gift this Christmas and I remember thinking "oh boy, let's see how this thing runs". But it does just fine. I mean it's no speed demon, but for the limited purpose of the form factor, it's perfectly fine. I have to admit I was surprised that it works so well. I kinda expected Windows to be a hog on that hardware (1GB RAM fixed, with no upgrade path), but it really isn't. Even the 5400RPM HDD seems to chug along well, contrary to my prior experiences with laptops running slower hard drives. I would have preferred an SSD though. And the battery life is insanely good. For ~$350 or so, it's a really good device.
jister 16y ago
One thing's for sure...it's not going to happen anytime soon.
ergo98 16y ago
Intel exclusivity? What? x86 is an architecture, like ARM, that has seen many contenders come and go over the years. Intel's dominance is because of engineering excellence, albeit coupled with some questionable business practices. Show me an ARM device that compares with a Core i7-950. Show me one that compares with one with 3 of the 4 cores turned off. Microsoft, for that matter, has had versions of Windows for alternate platforms going back well over a decade. Those platforms got abandoned not out of some strategic affinity to x86 (much less to Intel), but simply because they didn't offer the advantage to be worth the bother: Instead they were pursued during the "the Future is RISC" era and it was preparing for the purported demise of x86. As to manufacturers that were "Microsoft exclusive", show me even one. Such a thing hasn't existed in years. There is nothing I have ever read on Asymco that isn't full of glossy big conclusions, yet absolutely falls apart under any scrutiny at all. It is garbage analysis. I love the smartphone era. I love the fact that embedded chips in everything from your HVAC control to your PVR to inside televisions and cars, etc, are all massively benefiting from this explosion of reasonable performance, low power devices. But let's get real. The only reason x86 is behind right now is because ARM had been working on low power processors for years, and the chips came up that it was the hot area. Intel isn't sitting on their hands, though, and I have no doubt they'll have some killer solutions in the very near future. People are so quick to jump to conclusions though, carried on by simplistic analysis of the sort that Asymco performs.
- junkbit 16y ago
  Show me an Intel device that compares with a 2W ARM cpu.
  - deleted 16y ago
    [deleted]
  - metageek 16y ago
    Some of Intel's Atoms run at 2W or less. A year ago I built an Atom-based nettop whose total power drain is something like 4W.
    - 16y ago
kayoone 16y ago
Why Intel ? Some years ago AMD was ahead of them in terms of x86 cpus...even more years ago there were companies like Cyrix or Via all building x86 chips that ran windows very well.
ConceptDog 16y ago
One thing is abundantly clear: If you're a developer or a designer and you aren't learning at least Android or preferably all three mobile platforms, you're looking at having a huge hole in your skill set by the end of the year.
- uytrtyuikuyt 16y ago
  Really ? All my enterprise DB systems are going to be obsoleted by a cell phone that can do facebook? I remember 10 years ago when the web was going to make big iron irrelevent, and 20years ago when PCs were going to replace mainframes
- nitrogen 16y ago
  All three? I think you may have miscounted: BlackBerry, WebOS (if HP keeps it up), WinMo, Android, MeeGo, Symbian, iOS. Did I miss any?
InclinedPlane 16y ago
I don't know why commentary has taken this bizarre turn lately of expressing predictions 5,10, or even 15 years in the future in the present tense. Sure, the mobile OS market has crazy momentum right now and may well end up obsoleting the entire PC industry. However, that hasn't happened yet. The PC industry is still bigger, people developing PC apps are still making much more money. This is not the end of the PC era, at best it's the prelude to the beginning of the end.
Enlightenment 16y ago
Desktop computers and Desktop-replacements are far from over. I sure the FCK won't ever write large documents, presentations, edit software, or anything else on small portable devices, even if you add an external keyboard or monitor, they are still nothing more than portable toys compared to a desktop. They will both co-exist and morons are the only ones that think otherwise. Sports cars kick-ass but I sure the fck can't use them to move large things, thus is why a person need a SUV or truck, same analogy of desktop vs tiny portable. Quit being a moron!
jasonwatkinspdx 16y ago
The irony is we're now finally giving up x86 years after the point where moving to a risc architecture would have offered the biggest jump in price/performance (p5 era).

138 points by roadnottaken 16y ago

Intel's arch enemy has been AMD and IBM in the past -- and MS has supported running on architectures for both of those companies over Intel in the past. Remember that x86-64 came from AMD and Intel supported it only after it was clear that it was going to be the 64bit architecture, not Itanium. And Intel was pretty POed that MS went with IBM over Intel for XBox360. My point, these things happened in the past and will continue to happen. The end of the PC era began with the emergence of the web. Everything else we're seeing a simply a side-effect of the web. Ironically, MS saw this coming 15 years ago, and their attempts at slowing it may have inadvertantly accelerated it.

blinkingled 16y ago

When is the end of jumping the gun going to begin? :p Some people are just too eager to see the PC die - rest assured that it will some day but you need to be a bit more patient. Windows on ARM or ARM based tablet announcements do not make a PC dead - not so fast.

irons 16y ago
The PC doesn't have to die for the PC era to gracefully decline, any more than Henry Ford had to personally shoot every horse.
- threepointone 16y ago
  [OT] That's a brilliant way of putting it, and had me in chuckles. Thanks for driving the point home :)
  - iamdave 16y ago
    Henry Ford... "Driving" the point home. Oh you guys..
    - deleted 16y ago
      [deleted]
- cma 16y ago
  But for horses to have prevailed even a little longer, someone would have had to have monkey-wrenched an awful lot of cars (IE6).
- blinkingled 16y ago
  So it's not really an END of the PC Era as the article proclaims but merely a beginning of the end?

zmanian 16y ago

Whats the era after the PC called? Is this mobile computing era? Or the ubi-comp era? I'm inclined towards the latter.

metageek 16y ago
PC++.
junkbit 16y ago
Augmented Reality
- nooneelse 16y ago
  Not yet. One important thing about real reality is the persistence. Looking through a pocket-able screen can give you a window into augmented reality, but there is a lack of persistence to that user interface. Afaik the only thing that will really bring about an era of augmented reality is good huds that carry little to no social stigma.

potency 16y ago

I disagree. The PC era is evolving, not ending. How many people still have and use a traditional desktop or laptop computer at home? Microsoft is filling a growing demand for an OS on smaller form factor devices by supporting ARM processors with the next release of Windows, but the traditional PC market is still alive and kicking, its just not "cool" anymore; it's seen as more of a utilitarian tool than a novelty at this point, whereas smartphones and iTablets currently retain the novelty factor, thus their pervasiveness at CES.

pohl 16y ago
I hope you don't mind. I just thought I'd try this on for size... I disagree. The Mainframe era is evolving, not ending. How many people still have and use a mainframe when they interact with their bank? PCs are filling a growing demand for an OS on a smaller form factor, but the traditional mainframe market is still alive and kicking, its just not "cool" anymore; it's seen as more of a utilitarian tool than a novelty at this point, whereas PCs currently retain the novelty factor, thus their pervasiveness at BigIronExpo. Yup. I actually recall people making this argument back in those days. And they were right in a sense: big iron still exists in its niche, after all. Regardless, the PC revolution was still a massive shift — large enough to justify the rise of the PCs as heralding the demise of big iron.
- nihilocrat 16y ago
  When I saw the iPad launched I was very concerned we are moving towards a market of consumer-only devices; devices which you can't use creatively to make content, program applications, etc.. Things like programming will be considered a "specialist" activity and new generations of nerds will have nothing to cut their teeth on because the only PCs are development workstations in corporate offices. Consumer computing will turn into pressing buttons and seeing magic happen, with no ability for curious people to figure out what's going on behind the scenes or modify it. A good litmus test is : can you use applications on the device to make entirely new applications for that device? You can do this on a Ti-86 calculator, but not on an iPad (please correct me if I'm wrong). I'm not entirely convinced things will pan out like this, but the thought still occurred to me.

roadnottaken 16y ago

The PC era won't end as long as people need to use keyboards to input text. A lot of home/casual computing might evolve away from PCs, but they'll always be on your desk at work and I'm guessing most people will keep at least one traditional desktop/laptop at home for decades to come.

cryptoz 16y ago
> I'm guessing most people will keep at least one traditional desktop/laptop at home for decades to come. I think you're being very shortsighted. "Most people" haven't even had a laptop for a single decade yet. Most people have had one for 1-10 years I'd say. Also, "most people" haven't had desktops for more than a decade and a half. What on Earth makes you think these form factors / devices will still exist in most people's homes for decades?! To me, "decades" implies at least 20 years.... So do you think, in year 2031, we'll still use desktop computers? That's crazy. No, we will have moved on. Keyboards will be out-phased for most users by 2031. I image maybe devs will still use them, and they'll be common in specialty scenarios, but they won't be for "most users". > they'll always be on your desk at work Also shortsighted. Workstations will evolve too, even if this is slower.
- roadnottaken 16y ago
  I'll bet you $1000 that most people will still regularly use keyboards in 2031. Isn't there a website somewhere where we can do this?
  - pingswept 16y ago
    http://www.longbets.org/ http://www.longbets.org/ Also, most people don't use keyboards now, unless you count cellphone keypads or restrict "people" to mean "people with income above $1000 per year" or something like that.
  - cryptoz 16y ago
    Haha okay, I will probably take that bet! But we need to decide on more specific definitions, as hinted by pingswept. What defines a keyboard, and what defines "most people"? Does "keyboard" include both physical and virtual keyboards? Most people on planet Earth, or most people in the USA? Or by income? If we can settle these specifics, I think we should indeed register at longbets.

deleted 16y ago

[deleted]

code_duck 16y ago

I think what I'll be using in 5 years is a 4 ghz device the size of my phone, which can be connected to external displays and input devices. I can already use bluetooth keyboards and mice with my phone. Once it can attach to a 1900x1200 monitor I won't need anything else.

sorbus 16y ago
I would think that a 2 or 3 Ghz device with between four and eight cores would be more likely. However, everything else you suggest seems spot on - or at least I would hope it to be spot on, not being a time traveler.
roadnottaken 16y ago
Very interesting prediction. That's the first serious alternative to traditional desktops that I've ever considered. Essentially you're using your phone/mobile-computer as a desktop when you need it... so you're not really moving away from Desktop computing. But I could see this taking hold.
- code_duck 16y ago
  Yeah, I don't see the need to use a desk going away any time soon after all. Laptop docks are already popular due to this, why not mobile device docks that work the same way?
bryanlarsen 16y ago
It might take less than 5 years. Both Motorola and Lenovo introduced an Android phone with a "laptop dock". Google for the "motorola atrix dock". It'll be a little while before it's useful, but it doesn't look like it'll take 5 years.
- code_duck 16y ago
  It might be that long before we get what I really want, a monitor that rolls up into a little scroll I can stick in my pocket!
16y ago

yread 16y ago

Who were the Windows-exclusive OEM customers? I thought all of them tried releasing Linux netbooks they just didn't sell

kprobst 16y ago
I have an HP mini110 that runs Windows 7 32-bit. I got it as a gift this Christmas and I remember thinking "oh boy, let's see how this thing runs". But it does just fine. I mean it's no speed demon, but for the limited purpose of the form factor, it's perfectly fine. I have to admit I was surprised that it works so well. I kinda expected Windows to be a hog on that hardware (1GB RAM fixed, with no upgrade path), but it really isn't. Even the 5400RPM HDD seems to chug along well, contrary to my prior experiences with laptops running slower hard drives. I would have preferred an SSD though. And the battery life is insanely good. For ~$350 or so, it's a really good device.

jister 16y ago

One thing's for sure...it's not going to happen anytime soon.

ergo98 16y ago

Intel exclusivity? What? x86 is an architecture, like ARM, that has seen many contenders come and go over the years. Intel's dominance is because of engineering excellence, albeit coupled with some questionable business practices. Show me an ARM device that compares with a Core i7-950. Show me one that compares with one with 3 of the 4 cores turned off. Microsoft, for that matter, has had versions of Windows for alternate platforms going back well over a decade. Those platforms got abandoned not out of some strategic affinity to x86 (much less to Intel), but simply because they didn't offer the advantage to be worth the bother: Instead they were pursued during the "the Future is RISC" era and it was preparing for the purported demise of x86. As to manufacturers that were "Microsoft exclusive", show me even one. Such a thing hasn't existed in years. There is nothing I have ever read on Asymco that isn't full of glossy big conclusions, yet absolutely falls apart under any scrutiny at all. It is garbage analysis. I love the smartphone era. I love the fact that embedded chips in everything from your HVAC control to your PVR to inside televisions and cars, etc, are all massively benefiting from this explosion of reasonable performance, low power devices. But let's get real. The only reason x86 is behind right now is because ARM had been working on low power processors for years, and the chips came up that it was the hot area. Intel isn't sitting on their hands, though, and I have no doubt they'll have some killer solutions in the very near future. People are so quick to jump to conclusions though, carried on by simplistic analysis of the sort that Asymco performs.

junkbit 16y ago
Show me an Intel device that compares with a 2W ARM cpu.
- deleted 16y ago
  [deleted]
- metageek 16y ago
  Some of Intel's Atoms run at 2W or less. A year ago I built an Atom-based nettop whose total power drain is something like 4W.
  - 16y ago

kayoone 16y ago

Why Intel ? Some years ago AMD was ahead of them in terms of x86 cpus...even more years ago there were companies like Cyrix or Via all building x86 chips that ran windows very well.

ConceptDog 16y ago

One thing is abundantly clear: If you're a developer or a designer and you aren't learning at least Android or preferably all three mobile platforms, you're looking at having a huge hole in your skill set by the end of the year.

uytrtyuikuyt 16y ago
Really ? All my enterprise DB systems are going to be obsoleted by a cell phone that can do facebook? I remember 10 years ago when the web was going to make big iron irrelevent, and 20years ago when PCs were going to replace mainframes
nitrogen 16y ago
All three? I think you may have miscounted: BlackBerry, WebOS (if HP keeps it up), WinMo, Android, MeeGo, Symbian, iOS. Did I miss any?

InclinedPlane 16y ago

I don't know why commentary has taken this bizarre turn lately of expressing predictions 5,10, or even 15 years in the future in the present tense. Sure, the mobile OS market has crazy momentum right now and may well end up obsoleting the entire PC industry. However, that hasn't happened yet. The PC industry is still bigger, people developing PC apps are still making much more money. This is not the end of the PC era, at best it's the prelude to the beginning of the end.

Enlightenment 16y ago

Desktop computers and Desktop-replacements are far from over. I sure the FCK won't ever write large documents, presentations, edit software, or anything else on small portable devices, even if you add an external keyboard or monitor, they are still nothing more than portable toys compared to a desktop. They will both co-exist and morons are the only ones that think otherwise. Sports cars kick-ass but I sure the fck can't use them to move large things, thus is why a person need a SUV or truck, same analogy of desktop vs tiny portable. Quit being a moron!

jasonwatkinspdx 16y ago

The irony is we're now finally giving up x86 years after the point where moving to a risc architecture would have offered the biggest jump in price/performance (p5 era).