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German economy shrinks : https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/14/business/germany-economy-gdp/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/14/business/germany-economy-

German economy shrinks : https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/14/business/germany-economy-gdp/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2019/08/14/business/germany-economy-... UK economy shrinks : https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/09/pound-plummets-uk-economy-shrinks-first-time-since-2012-10546136/ https://metro.co.uk/2019/08/09/pound-plummets-uk-economy-shr...

petre 7y ago
What would you expect? Brexit fears and almost every EU government banning ICE vehicles ten years from now. Good luck selling those Volkswagens. Add to that Trump's trade war with China. The EU is probably next. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-autos/trump-says-auto-tariffs-never-off-the-table-in-eu-trade-talks-idUSKCN1US2F7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-autos/tr...
adventured 7y ago
Italy is similarly stuck in contraction mode. Gross exports represent 46% of EU GDP, up from 39% in 2008. For China, gross exports are 20% of GDP, down from 33% in 2008. For the US, gross exports are 12% of GDP, the same as in 2008. A trade war is a nightmare for the EU. It's amazing they've stayed above water this long with 46% of GDP dependent on exports. They'll get economically thrashed if it keeps getting worse.
marcusverus 7y ago
There are articles all over the internet stating matter-of-factly that the US-China trade war has had a hand in the German recession. Why is that the case? At first blush it seems like newly un-fulfilled demand in the US and newly available supply/capacity in China would be a boon for other countries. What am I missing?
- IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
  Germany exports mostly industrial goods, such as machines (for manufacturing). As such, China is a far more important market than the US. The overlap of things both China and Germany manufacture is relatively small. Or, in economists' terms: Germany's and China's goods are complementary more than competitive.

petre 7y ago

What would you expect? Brexit fears and almost every EU government banning ICE vehicles ten years from now. Good luck selling those Volkswagens. Add to that Trump's trade war with China. The EU is probably next. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-autos/trump-says-auto-tariffs-never-off-the-table-in-eu-trade-talks-idUSKCN1US2F7 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-autos/tr...

adventured 7y ago

Italy is similarly stuck in contraction mode. Gross exports represent 46% of EU GDP, up from 39% in 2008. For China, gross exports are 20% of GDP, down from 33% in 2008. For the US, gross exports are 12% of GDP, the same as in 2008. A trade war is a nightmare for the EU. It's amazing they've stayed above water this long with 46% of GDP dependent on exports. They'll get economically thrashed if it keeps getting worse.

marcusverus 7y ago

There are articles all over the internet stating matter-of-factly that the US-China trade war has had a hand in the German recession. Why is that the case? At first blush it seems like newly un-fulfilled demand in the US and newly available supply/capacity in China would be a boon for other countries. What am I missing?

IfOnlyYouKnew 7y ago
Germany exports mostly industrial goods, such as machines (for manufacturing). As such, China is a far more important market than the US. The overlap of things both China and Germany manufacture is relatively small. Or, in economists' terms: Germany's and China's goods are complementary more than competitive.