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Unfortunately in the event of (armed) intervention, I expect the US and Europe's reactions to be similar to the Kashoggi murder. A bit of faux outrage and then

by hencq 7y ago

Unfortunately in the event of (armed) intervention, I expect the US and Europe's reactions to be similar to the Kashoggi murder. A bit of faux outrage and then everything goes back to normal. Heck, I could even see Trump praise Xi Jinping for being such a strong leader.

Mikeb85 7y ago
And what would the US and Europe do? Invade China? Nuclear deterrence is still a thing.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > what would the US and Europe do? Recognise and arm Taiwan.
  - walrus01 7y ago
    The United States already arms Taiwan. This is already a huge embassy in everything but its name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > United States already arms Taiwan Sales and recognition are restrained to avoid inflaming China. The risk of pissing off China doesn’t balance well against the risk of them invading. If Xi moves on Hong Kong, however, the latter changes. That makes the former risk more palatable.
      - nradov 7y ago
        Arms sales to Taiwan are also restrained for security reasons. The Taiwanese military is probably heavily penetrated by mainland agents. And if reunification ever occurs, whether peacefully or by force, the PLA will end up with any remaining equipment. So it's too risky to sell Taiwan anything advanced.
  - ryacko 7y ago
    Taiwan as Taiwan, or Taiwan as the Republic of China? There is only one UN Security Council seat for China.
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > Taiwan as Taiwan, or Taiwan as the Republic of China? Taiwan can call itself whatever it wants. Recognising the island’s right to govern itself would be reasonable. Nobody would recognise Taiwan’s claim on the mainland. > There is only one UN Security Council seat for China Out of all the challenges around recognising Taiwan, this is like the nine hundredth most pressing.
      - philwelch 7y ago
        The issue is that PRC, ROC, and every other country in the world agrees in principle to the “One China Policy”. The One China Policy is the fundamental basis of things. Nobody, even the Taiwanese, is willing to officially accept the notion that Taiwan is not part of China. I suspect that neither China or Taiwan would allow any country to simultaneously recognize both of them as separate de jure nation states.
- sneeze-slayer 7y ago
  Apply diplomatic pressure? Or maybe sanctions? I could never see them invading.
- _iyig 7y ago
  The U.S. could enact personal travel sanctions and asset freezes for responsible Chinese officials under the 2016 Sergei Magnitsky Global Human Rights Accountability Act. EDIT: Don't know why I've been downvoted for answering the question. If the U.S. wanted to reply, that's simply the most likely legal mechanism.
  - hencq 7y ago
    > Don't know why I've been downvoted for answering the question. If the U.S. wanted to reply, that's simply the most likely legal mechanism. I don't know either. People seem to automatically assume that a Western response means military intervention. That's just unrealistic. The US and Europe have significant diplomatic and economic carrots and sticks at their disposal. As you say, asset freezes and travel sanctions are the most likely as would economic sanctions.
- osivertsson 7y ago
  Other countries could educate their citizens about what is really going on inside China in "retraining" camps. I am sure there are a huge amount of hard evidence in the intelligence agencies about this. It could sway public and companies from buying stuff made in China, not wanting to associate with this real-world dystopia. A Chinese economic slowdown may result, causing severe internal problems for China.
  - Mikeb85 7y ago
    Of course we don't actually buy that many things from Chinese companies. Mainly western companies that use Chinese manufacturing. The 'powers' that control western countries don't want to stop doing business with China.
scarmig 7y ago
One substantive reaction would be re-invigorating Tsai Ing-wen across the strait, at a time when the PRC is otherwise at the brink of getting the most mainland friendly President of Taiwan ever. That's likely playing a bigger role in motivating strategy than worries about Western responses.
s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago
I don't see why your last statement was necessary. Trump has been very tough on China.
Iv 7y ago
I would not say that after Kashoggi murder things went back to normal. Maybe I was following it a bit closer as I was interested in NEOM at the time. Ever heard of it? Probably the craziest project of the decade. MBS had plans to sell a sizable chunk of Saudi Aramco in order to invest 500 billions (yes, billions) in a prototype of a city of the future. Electricity fully renewable (easy, in the middle of the desert), a special legal status to make a non-sharia law enclave in Saudi Arabia, and, the most interesting: a fully automated production. Softbank was a close partner, this led to the 100 billions Vision Fund that is a huge player right now. At the time, many companies were circling around that, wondering how to get a share, wondering how they could associate with MBS without appearing to be a dictator's ally. At the time he was cultivating a reformist image, the young guy who tries to make the old monarchy evolve. But after Kashoggi's murder, MBS himself admitted that it killed the project. That it can't really be talked about for at least a decade. No one wants to be associated with him anymore. Think about it: what company could survive the PR catastrophe it would cause? I am as cynical as the next guy, but I don't think it is fair to say Kashoggi's murder went unnoticed. And right now, I am delaying a trip to Shenzhen because of these riots, and I had wanted to explore other providers than Chinese ones for a while, this makes this item go a bit higher in my list of things to be done asap. I doubt I am alone in that case.

by hencq 7y ago

Mikeb85 7y ago

And what would the US and Europe do? Invade China? Nuclear deterrence is still a thing.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> what would the US and Europe do? Recognise and arm Taiwan.
- walrus01 7y ago
  The United States already arms Taiwan. This is already a huge embassy in everything but its name: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Institute_in_Taiwan
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > United States already arms Taiwan Sales and recognition are restrained to avoid inflaming China. The risk of pissing off China doesn’t balance well against the risk of them invading. If Xi moves on Hong Kong, however, the latter changes. That makes the former risk more palatable.
    - nradov 7y ago
      Arms sales to Taiwan are also restrained for security reasons. The Taiwanese military is probably heavily penetrated by mainland agents. And if reunification ever occurs, whether peacefully or by force, the PLA will end up with any remaining equipment. So it's too risky to sell Taiwan anything advanced.
- ryacko 7y ago
  Taiwan as Taiwan, or Taiwan as the Republic of China? There is only one UN Security Council seat for China.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > Taiwan as Taiwan, or Taiwan as the Republic of China? Taiwan can call itself whatever it wants. Recognising the island’s right to govern itself would be reasonable. Nobody would recognise Taiwan’s claim on the mainland. > There is only one UN Security Council seat for China Out of all the challenges around recognising Taiwan, this is like the nine hundredth most pressing.
    - philwelch 7y ago
      The issue is that PRC, ROC, and every other country in the world agrees in principle to the “One China Policy”. The One China Policy is the fundamental basis of things. Nobody, even the Taiwanese, is willing to officially accept the notion that Taiwan is not part of China. I suspect that neither China or Taiwan would allow any country to simultaneously recognize both of them as separate de jure nation states.
sneeze-slayer 7y ago
Apply diplomatic pressure? Or maybe sanctions? I could never see them invading.
_iyig 7y ago
The U.S. could enact personal travel sanctions and asset freezes for responsible Chinese officials under the 2016 Sergei Magnitsky Global Human Rights Accountability Act. EDIT: Don't know why I've been downvoted for answering the question. If the U.S. wanted to reply, that's simply the most likely legal mechanism.
- hencq 7y ago
  > Don't know why I've been downvoted for answering the question. If the U.S. wanted to reply, that's simply the most likely legal mechanism. I don't know either. People seem to automatically assume that a Western response means military intervention. That's just unrealistic. The US and Europe have significant diplomatic and economic carrots and sticks at their disposal. As you say, asset freezes and travel sanctions are the most likely as would economic sanctions.
osivertsson 7y ago
Other countries could educate their citizens about what is really going on inside China in "retraining" camps. I am sure there are a huge amount of hard evidence in the intelligence agencies about this. It could sway public and companies from buying stuff made in China, not wanting to associate with this real-world dystopia. A Chinese economic slowdown may result, causing severe internal problems for China.
- Mikeb85 7y ago
  Of course we don't actually buy that many things from Chinese companies. Mainly western companies that use Chinese manufacturing. The 'powers' that control western countries don't want to stop doing business with China.

scarmig 7y ago

One substantive reaction would be re-invigorating Tsai Ing-wen across the strait, at a time when the PRC is otherwise at the brink of getting the most mainland friendly President of Taiwan ever. That's likely playing a bigger role in motivating strategy than worries about Western responses.

s_y_n_t_a_x 7y ago

I don't see why your last statement was necessary. Trump has been very tough on China.

Iv 7y ago

I would not say that after Kashoggi murder things went back to normal. Maybe I was following it a bit closer as I was interested in NEOM at the time. Ever heard of it? Probably the craziest project of the decade. MBS had plans to sell a sizable chunk of Saudi Aramco in order to invest 500 billions (yes, billions) in a prototype of a city of the future. Electricity fully renewable (easy, in the middle of the desert), a special legal status to make a non-sharia law enclave in Saudi Arabia, and, the most interesting: a fully automated production. Softbank was a close partner, this led to the 100 billions Vision Fund that is a huge player right now. At the time, many companies were circling around that, wondering how to get a share, wondering how they could associate with MBS without appearing to be a dictator's ally. At the time he was cultivating a reformist image, the young guy who tries to make the old monarchy evolve. But after Kashoggi's murder, MBS himself admitted that it killed the project. That it can't really be talked about for at least a decade. No one wants to be associated with him anymore. Think about it: what company could survive the PR catastrophe it would cause? I am as cynical as the next guy, but I don't think it is fair to say Kashoggi's murder went unnoticed. And right now, I am delaying a trip to Shenzhen because of these riots, and I had wanted to explore other providers than Chinese ones for a while, this makes this item go a bit higher in my list of things to be done asap. I doubt I am alone in that case.