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This was the theory during the Clinton administration and, to be blunt, that theory has been wrong. The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as

This was the theory during the Clinton administration and, to be blunt, that theory has been wrong. The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline. Please, please do not take a free China for granted. Do not think that change — that democracy and freedom — is inevitable. It’s not.

atupis 7y ago
Thing is that China is nearing point where it has to let creative destruction happen to grow more and it is very hard to achieve under current model.
- philipov 7y ago
  Citation please
  - atupis 7y ago
    https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/friedman-why-nations-fail.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/friedman-w... and particulary last chapter of Why Nations Fail.
- intopieces 7y ago
  Could you elaborate more on what this means? What is creative destruction? Why is it necessary for China’s growth, and why is now the point for it?
- mr_overalls 7y ago
  When "creative destruction" is used as a euphemism for change, it encourages us to forget that "destructive destruction" is always a potential outcome. See: the Great Leap Forward
nradov 7y ago
Freedom and democracy aren't inevitable, but occasional revolutions and civil wars are inevitable in China. They've had quite a few and there's a good chance we'll see another one in our lifetimes. The next revolution probably won't produce a liberal democracy.
- intopieces 7y ago
  This sounds like how some regions are “due” for another catastrophic earthquake. Unfortunately, the modern notion of when a place is “due” for a revolution doesn’t take account of the sophisticated totalitarian surveillance technology that China has been building for the past 15 years. You may not intend to give this impression, but the sense I get from casual observers of China (I count myself in this group) is that if we just let China do its China thing eventually it will implode and some different state will emerge, probably slightly better. As an American, this seems like The Way of Things because we are taught that freedom triumphs, even if it takes a long time, even if it comes in fits and starts. It seems that this historical bias has created a blind spot for the possibility that things will continue to get very much worse for the Chinese people — who will go their own way entirely, as a group influenced by a completely different cultural background, with entirely different notions of what good government is.
mr_overalls 7y ago
> The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. Yes, in the face of a dystopian surveillance apparatus and a Party that will not hesitate to commit mass murder to maintain power, Chinese citizens are understandably reticent to publicly ask for _anything_ besides basic subsistence and stability.
- echaozh 7y ago
  How arrogant.
  - redblacktree 7y ago
    This is a low-value comment. If you feel the person you replied to is being arrogant, please explain why you feel that way. If you can't do that, please refrain from posting.
pmoriarty 7y ago
"The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline." I wouldn't be so quick to chalk this up to some sort of spontaneous decision originating with the Chinese people. Remember that any sort of political dissent or organization tends to be quickly and effectively quashed in China by the authorities. Leaders and activists are imprisoned, tortured, disappeared, or "reeducated". The media and education systems are tightly controlled to only show and teach what the authorities want, and as a result the rest of the population (minus the "counterrevolutinary" leaders and activists, who've been weeded out) has been manipulated to think the way the authorities want them to think and say things the authorities want them to say, and if they don't there are very real consequences. That said, as long as mainland China is prosperous and more and more people are lifted out of poverty, it's unlikely to have a real revolution. HK is in a different position, as they were already prosperous and have faced worsening conditions since they've been under the Chinese yoke.
nabla9 7y ago
As life conditions improve, the change is inevitable. Not liberal democracy, but some radical change. Chinese middle class may not demand democracy but they are clearly unhappy with the judiciary. Some kinds of checks and balances and independent juridical system is where it may start. Maybe we should look how some European monarchies gradually transformed over centuries.
- azernik 7y ago
  The goal of the Chinese leadership seems to be Singapore - a rich, rules-driven, low-corruption dictatorship. That would satisfy at least some of the demands of the Chinese public.
  - nabla9 7y ago
    Singapore has working legal system. Chinese are eroding that in HK.
  - intopieces 7y ago
    Singapore is not a dictatorship. It's a "flawed democracy", according to The Economist Democracy Index, the same category as the The United States. https://www.prensa.com/politica/democracy-index_LPRFIL20190112_0001.pdf https://www.prensa.com/politica/democracy-index_LPRFIL201901...
AnimalMuppet 7y ago
> The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. Joel Garreau once said (IIRC) "To not have the problems of your parents is to not have problems." If you grew up worried about hunger, and now you have enough to eat, life is good. Political freedom? Might be nice, but not a big problem. For the next generation, though, who grew up with enough food to eat... > The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline. Ouch. But it hurts because it's true. I'm hoping it's only temporary, but yeah, the west at the moment is not exactly a shining advertisement for how great democracy is...
- shadowprofile77 7y ago
  And what makes you state this about the west? Citation or more detailed reason would be nice.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    Trump isn't the best advertisement for how well democracy works. Neither is Boris Johnson. (In fact, Trump v Clinton as a choice for leader... shudder.) The alt-right and antifa battling it out in the streets isn't a great look for democracy and the rule of law, either. Epstein may have been the world's most successful pimp and blackmailer, and thrived for years among our elite. That's not a great look, either. Then there's income disparity, the alienation of so many in our society (though it's probably still better than working in a Foxconn factory), debt (especially from medical care and higher education), the rise of opioid addiction, and suicide. A Chinese could be forgiven for looking at all that and saying "No thanks. Your freedom isn't going to get me where I want to go."
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
- ksec 7y ago
  >For the next generation, though, who grew up with enough food to eat... Which is why it has now been proven wrong, none of those who grew up with enough food ( Very decent food in fact ) cares or even think about it. Look at those who grew up wealthy and are now studying aboard. Maslow's Theory, is just a theory after all, not a law.

atupis 7y ago

Thing is that China is nearing point where it has to let creative destruction happen to grow more and it is very hard to achieve under current model.

philipov 7y ago
Citation please
- atupis 7y ago
  https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/friedman-why-nations-fail.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/01/opinion/sunday/friedman-w... and particulary last chapter of Why Nations Fail.
intopieces 7y ago
Could you elaborate more on what this means? What is creative destruction? Why is it necessary for China’s growth, and why is now the point for it?
mr_overalls 7y ago
When "creative destruction" is used as a euphemism for change, it encourages us to forget that "destructive destruction" is always a potential outcome. See: the Great Leap Forward

nradov 7y ago

Freedom and democracy aren't inevitable, but occasional revolutions and civil wars are inevitable in China. They've had quite a few and there's a good chance we'll see another one in our lifetimes. The next revolution probably won't produce a liberal democracy.

intopieces 7y ago
This sounds like how some regions are “due” for another catastrophic earthquake. Unfortunately, the modern notion of when a place is “due” for a revolution doesn’t take account of the sophisticated totalitarian surveillance technology that China has been building for the past 15 years. You may not intend to give this impression, but the sense I get from casual observers of China (I count myself in this group) is that if we just let China do its China thing eventually it will implode and some different state will emerge, probably slightly better. As an American, this seems like The Way of Things because we are taught that freedom triumphs, even if it takes a long time, even if it comes in fits and starts. It seems that this historical bias has created a blind spot for the possibility that things will continue to get very much worse for the Chinese people — who will go their own way entirely, as a group influenced by a completely different cultural background, with entirely different notions of what good government is.

mr_overalls 7y ago

> The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. Yes, in the face of a dystopian surveillance apparatus and a Party that will not hesitate to commit mass murder to maintain power, Chinese citizens are understandably reticent to publicly ask for _anything_ besides basic subsistence and stability.

echaozh 7y ago
How arrogant.
- redblacktree 7y ago
  This is a low-value comment. If you feel the person you replied to is being arrogant, please explain why you feel that way. If you can't do that, please refrain from posting.

pmoriarty 7y ago

"The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline." I wouldn't be so quick to chalk this up to some sort of spontaneous decision originating with the Chinese people. Remember that any sort of political dissent or organization tends to be quickly and effectively quashed in China by the authorities. Leaders and activists are imprisoned, tortured, disappeared, or "reeducated". The media and education systems are tightly controlled to only show and teach what the authorities want, and as a result the rest of the population (minus the "counterrevolutinary" leaders and activists, who've been weeded out) has been manipulated to think the way the authorities want them to think and say things the authorities want them to say, and if they don't there are very real consequences. That said, as long as mainland China is prosperous and more and more people are lifted out of poverty, it's unlikely to have a real revolution. HK is in a different position, as they were already prosperous and have faced worsening conditions since they've been under the Chinese yoke.

nabla9 7y ago

As life conditions improve, the change is inevitable. Not liberal democracy, but some radical change. Chinese middle class may not demand democracy but they are clearly unhappy with the judiciary. Some kinds of checks and balances and independent juridical system is where it may start. Maybe we should look how some European monarchies gradually transformed over centuries.

azernik 7y ago
The goal of the Chinese leadership seems to be Singapore - a rich, rules-driven, low-corruption dictatorship. That would satisfy at least some of the demands of the Chinese public.
- nabla9 7y ago
  Singapore has working legal system. Chinese are eroding that in HK.
- intopieces 7y ago
  Singapore is not a dictatorship. It's a "flawed democracy", according to The Economist Democracy Index, the same category as the The United States. https://www.prensa.com/politica/democracy-index_LPRFIL20190112_0001.pdf https://www.prensa.com/politica/democracy-index_LPRFIL201901...

AnimalMuppet 7y ago

> The Chinese people do not see risking growth disruption as worth what the west considers freedom. Joel Garreau once said (IIRC) "To not have the problems of your parents is to not have problems." If you grew up worried about hunger, and now you have enough to eat, life is good. Political freedom? Might be nice, but not a big problem. For the next generation, though, who grew up with enough food to eat... > The west has fundamentally failed to make that case to them and even now western democracy is on the decline. Ouch. But it hurts because it's true. I'm hoping it's only temporary, but yeah, the west at the moment is not exactly a shining advertisement for how great democracy is...

shadowprofile77 7y ago
And what makes you state this about the west? Citation or more detailed reason would be nice.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  Trump isn't the best advertisement for how well democracy works. Neither is Boris Johnson. (In fact, Trump v Clinton as a choice for leader... shudder.) The alt-right and antifa battling it out in the streets isn't a great look for democracy and the rule of law, either. Epstein may have been the world's most successful pimp and blackmailer, and thrived for years among our elite. That's not a great look, either. Then there's income disparity, the alienation of so many in our society (though it's probably still better than working in a Foxconn factory), debt (especially from medical care and higher education), the rise of opioid addiction, and suicide. A Chinese could be forgiven for looking at all that and saying "No thanks. Your freedom isn't going to get me where I want to go."
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
ksec 7y ago
>For the next generation, though, who grew up with enough food to eat... Which is why it has now been proven wrong, none of those who grew up with enough food ( Very decent food in fact ) cares or even think about it. Look at those who grew up wealthy and are now studying aboard. Maslow's Theory, is just a theory after all, not a law.