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I'm a noob regarding investing, so bear with me if I use incorrect terms or kick open doors that are already open etc. but if my interpretation of this graph is
by jvdongen 16y ago
I'm a noob regarding investing, so bear with me if I use incorrect terms or kick open doors that are already open etc. but if my interpretation of this graph is correct, it also offers some guidelines for investing in funds (not individual companies):
1) from the visual it seems to me that the starting year is the most relevant. If you start in a good year, it will mostly turn out right, regardless whenever your end (exceptions aside, for which see point 2). If you start in a bad year it will mostly work out badly unless you really have some time to spare or manage to run into a very rare occasion (e.g. starting in 1947 and ending in the mid 1950's). But that's just from the visual, which can be very misleading, so the raw data points would be interesting to do some statistic exercises. If that holds true though, it could be a good guideline - assess the current returns of a particular fund and do not invest [in it] if the current returns are not high enough. While this would make you, by definition, miss out on any really spectacular returns, it could reduce risk enormously without sacrificing much in terms of returns.
2) if you happen to have invested in a fund that took a nose-dive, hang on to it and don't sell for a long while, as in the long run you're apparently very likely to end up at the 20-year median (guess it's called a median for a reason ;-) which is not too bad. At the very least your loss is going to be minimized with time.
- roadnottaken 16y agoNo.... 1) in reality you're constantly investing. nobody invests a lump-sum one time and hopes they chose a good moment to enter the market. the chart gives you some idea of your long-term chances. 2) "* if you happen to have invested in a fund that took a nose-dive, hang on to it and don't sell for a long while*" unless it goes bankrupt in which case you definitely want to sell. This is one reason why strategists advocate diversification and investing in index funds: you're sheltered from the (possibly poor) performance of any single company/stock.