5 ms·

I really wouldn't say "nobody has come close" - she was 3 years older (122 vs 119) than the next oldest verified person, and around five years from most of the

I really wouldn't say "nobody has come close" - she was 3 years older (122 vs 119) than the next oldest verified person, and around five years from most of the next top ten - most of them died at 117. If she was, say, 132, I'd be more suspicious, but 122 sounds more reasonable for statistical outliers in an incredibly complex process.

gwern 7y ago
The problem is, 3 years is a huge gap. If you look at all the other centenarians, they really do cluster within months of 117-119. And then you have Calment, who is the only outlier and who is like 30+ months past them all (and this is at a time of life where the annual mortality rate is like >50%). I plotted the age gap between the record holders once, and it looks basically like a flat line and then a single dot at the top of the graph corresponding to Calment. It may be a complex process, but at least for everyone else they die on schedule.
- galaxyLogic 7y ago
  It is possible even if unlikely. But if you are right that it is way too unlikely then the next alternative is that her age was exaggerated by 3 years. The theory that she "was her own daughter" I think is also possible but less likely than an (intended or unintended) error of 3 years somewhere.
- xamuel 7y ago
  It's also worth pointing out that all the Abrahamic religions predict a 120-year limit, which prediction dates back thousands of years (Genesis 6:3). So regardless of your opinion of Abrahamic religions, there are a lot of people who would care a great deal about verifying those extra three years!
  - mrsuprawsm 7y ago
    >all the Abrahamic religions predict a 120-year limit Do you have any more information on this? It sounds like interesting reading, but all I can find on Google is a link to this post.
    - Jabbles 7y ago
      https://www.versebyverseministry.org/bible-answers/are-people-limited-to-120-years-of-life https://www.versebyverseministry.org/bible-answers/are-peopl... from https://www.google.com/search?q=bible+120+year+age+limit https://www.google.com/search?q=bible+120+year+age+limit
    - tastygreenapple 7y ago
      The book of Genesis spends the most time talking about this. The book of Genesis is roughly the same between Judaism and Christianity, I know the Qur'an's account is different but I don't know much more beyond that.
  - ropiwqefjnpoa 7y ago
    The other explanation is that God was saying he was going to bring the flood in 120 years.
  - ErotemeObelus 7y ago
    There were exceptions after the flood. In the Book of Chronicles we have Jehoiada who died 130 years old. (2 Chr. 24:15)
    - mjcohen 7y ago
      According to Professor Gershwin: Methus'lah lived nine hundred years Methus'lah lived nine hundred years But who calls dat livin' When no gal will give in To no man what's nine hundred years ?
  - fortran77 7y ago
    I can't speak for other religions, but in Judaism, the 120 is used in common practice to mean "long life". It's how long Moses lived. The interpretation of the 120 years reference is more complicated. See https://www.aish.com/atr/120-Year-Lifespan.html https://www.aish.com/atr/120-Year-Lifespan.html
    - 29athrowaway 7y ago
      Why did Moses et al. take 40 years to move from Egypt to Canaan? (about 200 miles)
      - xamuel 7y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twelve_Spies#Consequences https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twelve_Spies#Consequences
  - cmonnow 7y ago
    Hinduism (Vedas) sets 120 years as human lifespan (provided it is lived according to dharma, transgressions reduce it a proportionally). That's where all other religions got it form.
    - xamuel 7y ago
      That's very interesting if true. Can you give any reference? All I can find through search engines is some references to "about 100 years" and a single thread where someone mentions a 120 year prediction but then the rest of the thread is everyone else correcting that person.
- mikeash 7y ago
  It ought to be possible to estimate the odds. We don’t know exactly how mortality changes with extreme age but there ought to be a pretty decent idea. How likely is it for a gap like this to appear?
- wahern 7y ago
  You can see similar progression with world record mile runs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mile_run_world_record_progression#Men https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mile_run_world_record_progress... Advancements in nutrition and health in combination with expectations about longevity might result in similar clustering followed by leaps. Or not. Just saying that in the absence of a better fundamental understanding it's difficult to judge the strength of such circumstantial evidence. This recent paper should absolutely make us more skeptical of claims, but doesn't really shed much light on the heart of the matter--limits of longevity.
  - that_jojo 7y ago
    Are you intimating that she learned a breakthrough technique in how to be old?
    - wahern 7y ago
      The history of advancements in the mile, the marathon, and other competitions seems to suggest that expectations about what's physically possible effect people's performance individually and generally--e.g. apparent endurance barriers. A similar phenomenon might also exist in the context of longevity. If you get sick and weak at 70 but expect to live to the average age of 90 you might be more optimistic and committed to getting well. If you're sickly at 95 but expected to have already died you might give up the ghost sooner, so to speak. Assuming that such a phenomenon exists in the context of longevity, I'm intimating that increased awareness about extreme longevity might have the effect of changing expectations and therefore advancing at the margins the extremes of longevity that some people attain. And if the phenomenon behaves like it does in sports, one would expect clustering followed by intermittent breaks to a new limit. EDIT: To be clear, my main point isn't that this phenomenon exists but that given the possibility of its existence, and in tandem with the clear paucity of reliable, accurate data, the clustering we see might not be strong evidence of a hard barrier at ~117, and in particular not strong evidence that 122 is wildly improbable.
      - notahacker 7y ago
- gwern 7y ago
  I did some simulating of the Gompertz and it seems to support my intuition that Calment really is extreme: https://www.gwern.net/Order-statistics#sampling-gompertz-distribution-extremes https://www.gwern.net/Order-statistics#sampling-gompertz-dis...
aj7 7y ago
No. 122 is not reasonable.

gwern 7y ago

The problem is, 3 years is a huge gap. If you look at all the other centenarians, they really do cluster within months of 117-119. And then you have Calment, who is the only outlier and who is like 30+ months past them all (and this is at a time of life where the annual mortality rate is like >50%). I plotted the age gap between the record holders once, and it looks basically like a flat line and then a single dot at the top of the graph corresponding to Calment. It may be a complex process, but at least for everyone else they die on schedule.

galaxyLogic 7y ago
It is possible even if unlikely. But if you are right that it is way too unlikely then the next alternative is that her age was exaggerated by 3 years. The theory that she "was her own daughter" I think is also possible but less likely than an (intended or unintended) error of 3 years somewhere.
xamuel 7y ago
It's also worth pointing out that all the Abrahamic religions predict a 120-year limit, which prediction dates back thousands of years (Genesis 6:3). So regardless of your opinion of Abrahamic religions, there are a lot of people who would care a great deal about verifying those extra three years!
- mrsuprawsm 7y ago
  >all the Abrahamic religions predict a 120-year limit Do you have any more information on this? It sounds like interesting reading, but all I can find on Google is a link to this post.
  - Jabbles 7y ago
    https://www.versebyverseministry.org/bible-answers/are-people-limited-to-120-years-of-life https://www.versebyverseministry.org/bible-answers/are-peopl... from https://www.google.com/search?q=bible+120+year+age+limit https://www.google.com/search?q=bible+120+year+age+limit
  - tastygreenapple 7y ago
    The book of Genesis spends the most time talking about this. The book of Genesis is roughly the same between Judaism and Christianity, I know the Qur'an's account is different but I don't know much more beyond that.
- ropiwqefjnpoa 7y ago
  The other explanation is that God was saying he was going to bring the flood in 120 years.
- ErotemeObelus 7y ago
  There were exceptions after the flood. In the Book of Chronicles we have Jehoiada who died 130 years old. (2 Chr. 24:15)
  - mjcohen 7y ago
    According to Professor Gershwin: Methus'lah lived nine hundred years Methus'lah lived nine hundred years But who calls dat livin' When no gal will give in To no man what's nine hundred years ?
- fortran77 7y ago
  I can't speak for other religions, but in Judaism, the 120 is used in common practice to mean "long life". It's how long Moses lived. The interpretation of the 120 years reference is more complicated. See https://www.aish.com/atr/120-Year-Lifespan.html https://www.aish.com/atr/120-Year-Lifespan.html
  - 29athrowaway 7y ago
    Why did Moses et al. take 40 years to move from Egypt to Canaan? (about 200 miles)
    - xamuel 7y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twelve_Spies#Consequences https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Twelve_Spies#Consequences
- cmonnow 7y ago
  Hinduism (Vedas) sets 120 years as human lifespan (provided it is lived according to dharma, transgressions reduce it a proportionally). That's where all other religions got it form.
  - xamuel 7y ago
    That's very interesting if true. Can you give any reference? All I can find through search engines is some references to "about 100 years" and a single thread where someone mentions a 120 year prediction but then the rest of the thread is everyone else correcting that person.
mikeash 7y ago
It ought to be possible to estimate the odds. We don’t know exactly how mortality changes with extreme age but there ought to be a pretty decent idea. How likely is it for a gap like this to appear?
wahern 7y ago
You can see similar progression with world record mile runs: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mile_run_world_record_progression#Men https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mile_run_world_record_progress... Advancements in nutrition and health in combination with expectations about longevity might result in similar clustering followed by leaps. Or not. Just saying that in the absence of a better fundamental understanding it's difficult to judge the strength of such circumstantial evidence. This recent paper should absolutely make us more skeptical of claims, but doesn't really shed much light on the heart of the matter--limits of longevity.
- that_jojo 7y ago
  Are you intimating that she learned a breakthrough technique in how to be old?
  - wahern 7y ago
    The history of advancements in the mile, the marathon, and other competitions seems to suggest that expectations about what's physically possible effect people's performance individually and generally--e.g. apparent endurance barriers. A similar phenomenon might also exist in the context of longevity. If you get sick and weak at 70 but expect to live to the average age of 90 you might be more optimistic and committed to getting well. If you're sickly at 95 but expected to have already died you might give up the ghost sooner, so to speak. Assuming that such a phenomenon exists in the context of longevity, I'm intimating that increased awareness about extreme longevity might have the effect of changing expectations and therefore advancing at the margins the extremes of longevity that some people attain. And if the phenomenon behaves like it does in sports, one would expect clustering followed by intermittent breaks to a new limit. EDIT: To be clear, my main point isn't that this phenomenon exists but that given the possibility of its existence, and in tandem with the clear paucity of reliable, accurate data, the clustering we see might not be strong evidence of a hard barrier at ~117, and in particular not strong evidence that 122 is wildly improbable.
    - notahacker 7y ago
gwern 7y ago
I did some simulating of the Gompertz and it seems to support my intuition that Calment really is extreme: https://www.gwern.net/Order-statistics#sampling-gompertz-distribution-extremes https://www.gwern.net/Order-statistics#sampling-gompertz-dis...

aj7 7y ago

No. 122 is not reasonable.