4 ms·

I'm in this boat. I've had too much cash sitting in a money market account for a couple of years in anticipation of a recession. I feel like the corporate tax c

by datpuz 7y ago

I'm in this boat. I've had too much cash sitting in a money market account for a couple of years in anticipation of a recession. I feel like the corporate tax cuts might have kicked the can down the road a little. It's a weird spot to be in and I'm still not sure what to do. I've lost a decent amount of money to inflation and opportunity cost. The feeling is as strong as ever but I know that macro trends aren't things anyone can accurately predict. I know there are better things I could do with the cash in the meantime, but I haven't done the research. I didn't really expect to be sitting on cash for such a long time. Would love to hear anyone's advice.

ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
FWIW people have been calling the top since as early as 2013. There is every reason to believe that there will be a recession tomorrow, but I also would not be surprised if this expansion extends into the early to mid 2020s. If you have this feeling now, and have had it for most of the current expansion, you might want to consider the possibility that your gut sense of whether there will be a recession is just broken, and whether you should stop listening to it. Because I guarantee you it's going to be telling you to get out of the market two or three years after the next expansion starts, and who knows how much money you're going to have left on the table by the time you're done with that one.
- datpuz 7y ago
  I've only been holding out since ~2017, but I definitely see your point. I know I'm probably being irrational by continuing to hold out, and I'm suffering a bit from the sunk cost fallacy. I guess I'm irrationally avoiding the situation where I held out for two years, only to buy in at the top, and look like a total doofus.
  - ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
    I know a guy who is in a very similar situation, although he's been holding out since about '15. IMO, what looks smart is doing the thing that has the correct risk/reward tradeoff, even if you happen to lose the bet.
    - mrep 7y ago
      Holy shit! In the past 5 years, the S&P 500 has returned 50% just counting stock price and not dividends reinvested. Talk about sunk costs, even the SP 500 only dropped 50% during the great recession.
      - ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
        You're telling me! I've been begging him to get in but he just can't get over the mental hurdle. The really astonishing thing is that he doesn't have a problem holding on to the stock grants his employer issues him. ?????? You can lead a horse to water . . .
        deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
  - fourstar 7y ago
    Do not listen to these people who constantly tell you to “just invest now, it’ll average out, etc”. Go with your gut. Cash is a position. Know when and how to use it to your advantage.
    - smileysteve 7y ago
      https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...
    - pedrocr 7y ago
      If you know how to do this you should be making bundles of money trading other people's money. If it's your own money and you don't have any particular reason you think you have a deep insight don't fall into the trap of thinking you see patterns where they don't exist. Our brains pattern match way too much. Retail investors with actual insight into markets have to be one in a million or less.
      - fourstar 7y ago
        You can make great money with this method. It’s called buying low and selling high. It’s how the majority of non-leveraged investors make their fortunes. Just need to wait for the next down cycle. Everything is cyclical.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
rorykoehler 7y ago
Don't time the market. Set up a long term investment thesis /strategy and allocate funds accordingly... Always. In good times or bad.
jly 7y ago
It depends on what your plans are for the money. If this is long-term savings, I would invest it all into a balanced portfolio as soon as you can and forget about it - there are many portfolio examples out there that only use a few 'total market'-style ETFs, as an example. I too have sat on cash at times during the last couple decades and it has cost me a lot of returns. Trying to time these things is basically like gambling and it will drive you crazy. If you plan to use the cash in the short-term or it's emergency savings, I would personally keep it in cash to protect the principal. High yield savings accounts or short-term treasuries will at least provide some inflation protection.
- czbond 7y ago
  While I agree with this, timing can be really important. Large ETF's sell blindly when people take money out of the ETF's. So a sell on ETF, means quality and not quality stocks are sold. So don't buy ETF's on the multi year down...
  - pedrocr 7y ago
    ETFs, the index ones most people use anyway, just track the market and do so very closely. There's no market timing effect from buying or selling the ETFs.
adventured 7y ago
> I've lost a decent amount of money to inflation and opportunity cost. You also obviously know that one ride on the S&P 500 from a relatively low point, will bury such inflationary losses in dramatic fashion. And one bad ride down from these heights could easily cost you the better part of a decade to fully recover. First do no harm, don't lose money; don't chase or try to force returns. Patience plus money is the critical combination to being positioned to pounce on opportunity. Most people lack the cash when the opportunties are plentiful (eg 2009-2010). And you don't need very many big broad hits (like riding the S&P to a triple over six years out of the great recession) across a lifetime, only a few. > I know there are better things I could do with the cash in the meantime This deep into an expansion (10 years at that), I'd say that now is exactly the time to hold the line on your patience. The stock market is seeing close to flat earnings growth and its multiple is very high, combined with everything else it certainly appears to be an out-of-gas scenario. We would need to see rather extraordinary earnings growth - and soon - to buffer the earnings multiple this market is carrying. And we're also not seeing macro economic growth like you would want to see, to feel confident in the market moving much higher than it already is. In the late 1990s we were seeing 4-5% growth (18 straight quarters of 4%+ growth in the late 1990s), now 2% is more common. China was an engine for the world economy for ~15 years; that is now over. Where's the next engine? There may not be one in the near future. A large share of this market climb the last few years has been nothing more than multiple expansion, it's not coming from an organic surge of earnings growth and productivity growth (the tax cuts were a big part of it, which wasn't organic; that adjustment spike is over). I consider this a very dangerous market based on growth rates & multiples (Warren Buffett appears to also hold that belief, based on his net equity selling and refusal to deploy Berkshire's epic $122b in cash; few have consistently navigated such circumstances better than Buffett, whether 1999-2000 or 2007-2008, he has a rigid wiring for it based on the value available to be purchased with capital; his spidey sense is tingling, clearly). I'd suggest you stick to being patient, wait for a better price vs value environment, and or for another major financial opportunity that comes along in your personal life. Lacking the capital to seize on opportunities when they become abundant, is a truly terrible trap to be stuck in, infinitely worse than the modest inflationary mouse nibbling at your capital now. Others will note something about not timing the market. Keep in mind this is absolutely not about timing a market. It's about being unwilling to dramatically overpay for what you're buying (eg paying a 30x multiple for zero growth on various blue chips). It's calculating value for price. That is not a matter of timing, it's a matter of deciding what price you're willing to pay for what value you get. Buffett for example isn't a market timer (he points this out at every opportunity, going back many decades); rather, he has fairly strict rules about what he's willing to pay for what value he gets. Being unwilling to overpay is not about timing or guessing, it's about having rules for what you're willing to pay for what you get.
ZenSystem 7y ago
People seem to be saying a) hold the cash and wait or b) put it in the market. There is a compromised path that exposes you to both scenarios (though by definition eliminates your ability to get the maximum possible upside). Compromise: Put your cash in, for instance, Betterment's new 2.69% savings account so that it's at least earning reasonable interest for 2019. CIT online bank is another alternative at 2.4% for over $50k. Both are FDIC insured. Take 10-30% of your cash holdings, divide by 12 and dollar-cost average your way into the (potentially bulging) market by making identical sized investments every month. If we see a crash soon you've limited your downside exposure. If we keep growing you've exposed yourself to some upside. Recalibrate in a year or so.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
webninja 7y ago
People are saying buy the S&P500 index when it’s at a 17x P/E ratio. Currently it’s at a 20.5x P/E ratio.

by datpuz 7y ago

ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago

FWIW people have been calling the top since as early as 2013. There is every reason to believe that there will be a recession tomorrow, but I also would not be surprised if this expansion extends into the early to mid 2020s. If you have this feeling now, and have had it for most of the current expansion, you might want to consider the possibility that your gut sense of whether there will be a recession is just broken, and whether you should stop listening to it. Because I guarantee you it's going to be telling you to get out of the market two or three years after the next expansion starts, and who knows how much money you're going to have left on the table by the time you're done with that one.

datpuz 7y ago
I've only been holding out since ~2017, but I definitely see your point. I know I'm probably being irrational by continuing to hold out, and I'm suffering a bit from the sunk cost fallacy. I guess I'm irrationally avoiding the situation where I held out for two years, only to buy in at the top, and look like a total doofus.
- ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
  I know a guy who is in a very similar situation, although he's been holding out since about '15. IMO, what looks smart is doing the thing that has the correct risk/reward tradeoff, even if you happen to lose the bet.
  - mrep 7y ago
    Holy shit! In the past 5 years, the S&P 500 has returned 50% just counting stock price and not dividends reinvested. Talk about sunk costs, even the SP 500 only dropped 50% during the great recession.
    - ijpoijpoihpiuoh 7y ago
      You're telling me! I've been begging him to get in but he just can't get over the mental hurdle. The really astonishing thing is that he doesn't have a problem holding on to the stock grants his employer issues him. ?????? You can lead a horse to water . . .
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
- fourstar 7y ago
  Do not listen to these people who constantly tell you to “just invest now, it’ll average out, etc”. Go with your gut. Cash is a position. Know when and how to use it to your advantage.
  - smileysteve 7y ago
    https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market-timer/ https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2014/02/worlds-worst-market...
  - pedrocr 7y ago
    If you know how to do this you should be making bundles of money trading other people's money. If it's your own money and you don't have any particular reason you think you have a deep insight don't fall into the trap of thinking you see patterns where they don't exist. Our brains pattern match way too much. Retail investors with actual insight into markets have to be one in a million or less.
    - fourstar 7y ago
      You can make great money with this method. It’s called buying low and selling high. It’s how the majority of non-leveraged investors make their fortunes. Just need to wait for the next down cycle. Everything is cyclical.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]

rorykoehler 7y ago

Don't time the market. Set up a long term investment thesis /strategy and allocate funds accordingly... Always. In good times or bad.

jly 7y ago

It depends on what your plans are for the money. If this is long-term savings, I would invest it all into a balanced portfolio as soon as you can and forget about it - there are many portfolio examples out there that only use a few 'total market'-style ETFs, as an example. I too have sat on cash at times during the last couple decades and it has cost me a lot of returns. Trying to time these things is basically like gambling and it will drive you crazy. If you plan to use the cash in the short-term or it's emergency savings, I would personally keep it in cash to protect the principal. High yield savings accounts or short-term treasuries will at least provide some inflation protection.

czbond 7y ago
While I agree with this, timing can be really important. Large ETF's sell blindly when people take money out of the ETF's. So a sell on ETF, means quality and not quality stocks are sold. So don't buy ETF's on the multi year down...
- pedrocr 7y ago
  ETFs, the index ones most people use anyway, just track the market and do so very closely. There's no market timing effect from buying or selling the ETFs.

adventured 7y ago

> I've lost a decent amount of money to inflation and opportunity cost. You also obviously know that one ride on the S&P 500 from a relatively low point, will bury such inflationary losses in dramatic fashion. And one bad ride down from these heights could easily cost you the better part of a decade to fully recover. First do no harm, don't lose money; don't chase or try to force returns. Patience plus money is the critical combination to being positioned to pounce on opportunity. Most people lack the cash when the opportunties are plentiful (eg 2009-2010). And you don't need very many big broad hits (like riding the S&P to a triple over six years out of the great recession) across a lifetime, only a few. > I know there are better things I could do with the cash in the meantime This deep into an expansion (10 years at that), I'd say that now is exactly the time to hold the line on your patience. The stock market is seeing close to flat earnings growth and its multiple is very high, combined with everything else it certainly appears to be an out-of-gas scenario. We would need to see rather extraordinary earnings growth - and soon - to buffer the earnings multiple this market is carrying. And we're also not seeing macro economic growth like you would want to see, to feel confident in the market moving much higher than it already is. In the late 1990s we were seeing 4-5% growth (18 straight quarters of 4%+ growth in the late 1990s), now 2% is more common. China was an engine for the world economy for ~15 years; that is now over. Where's the next engine? There may not be one in the near future. A large share of this market climb the last few years has been nothing more than multiple expansion, it's not coming from an organic surge of earnings growth and productivity growth (the tax cuts were a big part of it, which wasn't organic; that adjustment spike is over). I consider this a very dangerous market based on growth rates & multiples (Warren Buffett appears to also hold that belief, based on his net equity selling and refusal to deploy Berkshire's epic $122b in cash; few have consistently navigated such circumstances better than Buffett, whether 1999-2000 or 2007-2008, he has a rigid wiring for it based on the value available to be purchased with capital; his spidey sense is tingling, clearly). I'd suggest you stick to being patient, wait for a better price vs value environment, and or for another major financial opportunity that comes along in your personal life. Lacking the capital to seize on opportunities when they become abundant, is a truly terrible trap to be stuck in, infinitely worse than the modest inflationary mouse nibbling at your capital now. Others will note something about not timing the market. Keep in mind this is absolutely not about timing a market. It's about being unwilling to dramatically overpay for what you're buying (eg paying a 30x multiple for zero growth on various blue chips). It's calculating value for price. That is not a matter of timing, it's a matter of deciding what price you're willing to pay for what value you get. Buffett for example isn't a market timer (he points this out at every opportunity, going back many decades); rather, he has fairly strict rules about what he's willing to pay for what value he gets. Being unwilling to overpay is not about timing or guessing, it's about having rules for what you're willing to pay for what you get.

ZenSystem 7y ago

People seem to be saying a) hold the cash and wait or b) put it in the market. There is a compromised path that exposes you to both scenarios (though by definition eliminates your ability to get the maximum possible upside). Compromise: Put your cash in, for instance, Betterment's new 2.69% savings account so that it's at least earning reasonable interest for 2019. CIT online bank is another alternative at 2.4% for over $50k. Both are FDIC insured. Take 10-30% of your cash holdings, divide by 12 and dollar-cost average your way into the (potentially bulging) market by making identical sized investments every month. If we see a crash soon you've limited your downside exposure. If we keep growing you've exposed yourself to some upside. Recalibrate in a year or so.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

webninja 7y ago

People are saying buy the S&P500 index when it’s at a 17x P/E ratio. Currently it’s at a 20.5x P/E ratio.