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Does anyone have any good links to how the trade war is affecting the Chinese economy and population? Most everything I read in the western press seems to mostl

by tedeh 7y ago

Does anyone have any good links to how the trade war is affecting the Chinese economy and population? Most everything I read in the western press seems to mostly concern the "American consumer" and how him/her is hurting due to higher prices. It would be interesting to hear what's going on on the other side, too.

wtdata 7y ago
China has an autocratic regimen, it's difficult to gather what the population there truly thinks about US trade tariffs, when they all pretend they never even heard about Tianamen.
- duxup 7y ago
  >when they all pretend they never even heard about Tianamen The usual reaction I've seen when it is acknowledged (even if generally) is to note that it is "unhelpful" to talk about it.
  - 420codebro 7y ago
    Chinese got their euphemism-game down strong. Nazis would blush.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    In particular, it doesn't help the one doing the talking.
- SkyMarshal 7y ago
  Not all of them pretend, many actually haven't heard about it. I know at least one older Chinese adult who came to the US for the first time recently and saw the videos on Youtube for the first time in her life. It was 30yrs ago has been pretty well suppressed by the censors.
businessinchina 7y ago
I've run a business in China for over a decade and follow the macroeconomic situation here closely. Here's the deal: The Chinese economy became investment-driven instead of export-driven following the Great Financial Crisis. Exports are less important to GDP than real estate construction and infrastructure development (subways, high speed rail, bridges, etc). In terms of exports, Europe is the biggest trading partner, not the US. The US is number 2. The Chinese economy has a big problem: the government can drive GDP as much as it wants via state-driven investment and debt, but much of that is malinvestment and the debt cannot be self-funded. So there is and has been a large debt problem. This is why the Chinese economy has been slowing and the government has not found a politically acceptable way to tackle the problem. The US trade war is basically kicking the Chinese economy while it's already down, but it's not the key source of the problems here.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- kuzehanka 7y ago
  > Exports are less important to GDP than real estate construction and infrastructure development (subways, high speed rail, bridges, etc). Exports have stopped mattering several years ago. Manufacturing is increasingly being moved to Viet Nam, India, and Africa. Countries with cheaper labour costs and that don't steal your IP and lock you out of their domestic market as part of the manufacturing deal. You forgot the ghost cities, the buildings that crumble before they are ever populated, and the roads that fall apart within a year of being built. The backbone of the Chinese realestate economy. The chinese real-estate investment bubble is a bomb and the trade war is rapidly counting the timer down to 0. Is it a bubble? Yes it is, the Chinese government has had to put in multiple controls over the last 5 years to slow its growth and try to prevent it from bursting[1]. They're in a difficult position. Letting it keep growing will guarantee it bursts. Stopping it entirely will cease only source of the economic growth that's kept the population placated with the authoritative government. The more wealthy and smarter Chinese have been investing overseas. That investment has fallen exponentially since the start of the trade war[2]. This bubble isn't going to hold up for more than 2 more years, assuming the trade war continues. And if it bursts, it'll hit the world economy pretty hard. Recently the Chinese government has also put in tight controls on who can move money out of the country and how much. This was in response to everyone trying to move all their assets overseas as the trade war ramped up. They're even going after party members now[3]. tl;dr: China's economy is large, but most of it is a house of cards built on a bluff. That bluff has been called during a downturn that the CCP didn't know how to address in the first place. Anyone with the means to do so is folding, cashing out, and leaving the country or at least sending their children overseas[4]. [1] https://www.scmp.com/property/article/2080470/more-mainland-chinese-cities-follow-beijings-lead-curbing-home-purchases https://www.scmp.com/property/article/2080470/more-mainland-... [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-08/chinese-investment-into-australia-drops-sharply/10980082 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-08/chinese-investment-in... [3] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2167731/desperate-chinese-middle-class-take-big-risks-move-money-and-themselves https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2167731/d... [4] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/more-than-a-third-of-chinese-millionaires-want-to-leave-china.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/more-than-a-third-of-chinese...

by tedeh 7y ago

wtdata 7y ago

China has an autocratic regimen, it's difficult to gather what the population there truly thinks about US trade tariffs, when they all pretend they never even heard about Tianamen.

duxup 7y ago
>when they all pretend they never even heard about Tianamen The usual reaction I've seen when it is acknowledged (even if generally) is to note that it is "unhelpful" to talk about it.
- 420codebro 7y ago
  Chinese got their euphemism-game down strong. Nazis would blush.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  In particular, it doesn't help the one doing the talking.
SkyMarshal 7y ago
Not all of them pretend, many actually haven't heard about it. I know at least one older Chinese adult who came to the US for the first time recently and saw the videos on Youtube for the first time in her life. It was 30yrs ago has been pretty well suppressed by the censors.

businessinchina 7y ago

I've run a business in China for over a decade and follow the macroeconomic situation here closely. Here's the deal: The Chinese economy became investment-driven instead of export-driven following the Great Financial Crisis. Exports are less important to GDP than real estate construction and infrastructure development (subways, high speed rail, bridges, etc). In terms of exports, Europe is the biggest trading partner, not the US. The US is number 2. The Chinese economy has a big problem: the government can drive GDP as much as it wants via state-driven investment and debt, but much of that is malinvestment and the debt cannot be self-funded. So there is and has been a large debt problem. This is why the Chinese economy has been slowing and the government has not found a politically acceptable way to tackle the problem. The US trade war is basically kicking the Chinese economy while it's already down, but it's not the key source of the problems here.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
kuzehanka 7y ago
> Exports are less important to GDP than real estate construction and infrastructure development (subways, high speed rail, bridges, etc). Exports have stopped mattering several years ago. Manufacturing is increasingly being moved to Viet Nam, India, and Africa. Countries with cheaper labour costs and that don't steal your IP and lock you out of their domestic market as part of the manufacturing deal. You forgot the ghost cities, the buildings that crumble before they are ever populated, and the roads that fall apart within a year of being built. The backbone of the Chinese realestate economy. The chinese real-estate investment bubble is a bomb and the trade war is rapidly counting the timer down to 0. Is it a bubble? Yes it is, the Chinese government has had to put in multiple controls over the last 5 years to slow its growth and try to prevent it from bursting[1]. They're in a difficult position. Letting it keep growing will guarantee it bursts. Stopping it entirely will cease only source of the economic growth that's kept the population placated with the authoritative government. The more wealthy and smarter Chinese have been investing overseas. That investment has fallen exponentially since the start of the trade war[2]. This bubble isn't going to hold up for more than 2 more years, assuming the trade war continues. And if it bursts, it'll hit the world economy pretty hard. Recently the Chinese government has also put in tight controls on who can move money out of the country and how much. This was in response to everyone trying to move all their assets overseas as the trade war ramped up. They're even going after party members now[3]. tl;dr: China's economy is large, but most of it is a house of cards built on a bluff. That bluff has been called during a downturn that the CCP didn't know how to address in the first place. Anyone with the means to do so is folding, cashing out, and leaving the country or at least sending their children overseas[4]. [1] https://www.scmp.com/property/article/2080470/more-mainland-chinese-cities-follow-beijings-lead-curbing-home-purchases https://www.scmp.com/property/article/2080470/more-mainland-... [2] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-08/chinese-investment-into-australia-drops-sharply/10980082 https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-08/chinese-investment-in... [3] https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2167731/desperate-chinese-middle-class-take-big-risks-move-money-and-themselves https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2167731/d... [4] https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/more-than-a-third-of-chinese-millionaires-want-to-leave-china.html https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/05/more-than-a-third-of-chinese...