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China has extensive fab capacity down to 28nm and in-country access to processes as low as 16nm. That puts them roughly where we were in 2011. They also have ma
by debatem1 7y ago
China has extensive fab capacity down to 28nm and in-country access to processes as low as 16nm. That puts them roughly where we were in 2011. They also have market access to 10nm and will likely have market access to 3nm before the US has in-country access to it. Furthermore, the actual location of those advanced fabs are all in SE Asia, particularly Taiwan and South Korea. Tech transfer is inevitable, market access will continue to exist in peacetime, and in the event of any conflict they will simply take what they want. Meanwhile, the US is basically stalled around 7nm and has been for quite some time.
Taken together that means that we have at most an 8 year lead on what is in play literally right now in china. Given their investment level it's pretty likely that they will hit parity within two years. And Huawei was first to market with a 7nm CPU design. This is what you term a "secure long-term advantage"?
- espeed 7y agoYou watching the news?
- debatem1 7y agoIs there something on that dragged your attention away from the fact that your earlier assertions about the US's continued dominance of semiconductor fab were incorrect?
- espeed 7y agoYou mapped out a trajectory you think things are going to follow. Things change. No more technology transfer. Protecting IP is the key to what happened yesterday.
- debatem1 7y agoThings do change. That doesn't make your specific prediction of what they will change into correct. Given that your previous assertions about the past and present were wrong, I doubt you are correct about the shape of the future. Happy to bet on it, though.
- espeed 7y agoYou're referring to part of the process, I'm referring to the whole process -- i.e. full independent capability / self-sufficiency -- and currently China has zero capability to manufacture advanced chips independently [0] ... Huawei would love to source its chips and other components purely from Chinese suppliers, but as of today it is unable to do so ... There is no production line in China that uses only equipment made in China, so it is very difficult to make any chipsets without U.S. equipment. [0] https://wccftech.com/china-is-still-multiple-generations-behind-in-chip-manufacturing/ https://wccftech.com/china-is-still-multiple-generations-beh...
- debatem1 7y agoMalarky. By the same measure the US can't manufacture anything at all anymore because it can't source all the parts of any single supply chain from solely inside the US. China has-- currently, not theoretically-- in country fab just a few years behind, and has been actively building plants at 10nm. We know they've already bought equipment for 7nm. So the idea that somehow the supply chain is holding them back is just wrong. Not only that, but U.S. equipment doesn't lead here and hasn't for quite some time. Taiwanese equipment does. Are you really arguing that China does not and will not have access to Taiwanese Fab equipment? Because if so, you should know that TSMC is already moving fab to China.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- espeed 7y agoWe will see.