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The PLA will happily storm HK if the HK govt requests it... but they won't. The reason is money. If the PLA move in, the wealthy elite in HK will start moving

by ab_c 7y ago

The PLA will happily storm HK if the HK govt requests it... but they won't. The reason is money. If the PLA move in, the wealthy elite in HK will start moving their assets out -- likely to Singapore. Political instability is never good for investments and when a handful of the millionaires/billionaires start migrating their wealth, it'll become a mass exodus.

mc32 7y ago
I don’t think it’s this simple. Ultimately stability is paramount and more important than wealth. Self preservation of the CCP may require intervention. I’m sure they’d prefer to avoid having to use a heavy hand, but they will if they surmise that they have to.
immichaelwang 7y ago
China does not value the status/wellbeing of their millionaires/billionaires over the control of the CCP in people's minds, which is always the top priority.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  Even worse: the million and billionaires all value their relationship with mainland China and the CCP more than their working-class HK brethren.
  - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
    I think they value their millions and billions more than either. And they made a fair number of those millions and billions through their relationship with mainland China and the CCP. If it looks like the mainland CCP is going to cost them their millions and billions, though...
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      At this moment, at least, the CCP is mostly pro big business and friendly to the rich (as many of them are themselves now). Of course, that could change at anytime, but the interests of the rich are more closely aligned with the CCP than the protesters atm.
      - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
        Are the interests of the Hong Kong rich more closely aligned with the CCP? (As for the mainland rich, I agree with you... for the moment.)
        seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        Yes, I specifically meant the HK rich. They have lots of business interests outside of HK and inside China, so it isn’t very surprising that they are tied to the party at the hip. The same is actually true for Taiwan (rich Taiwanese are pro China even if working class Taiwanese are not).
jorblumesea 7y ago
HK only amounts to a small percentage of China's GDP now. This is also why HK has less free rein in its affairs. The "one state two systems" policy was convenient when HK was a giant in China and they needed the cash. With the economic free zones and growth of China itself, it's just less important compared to other cities in Guangdong. China would absolutely take a 2-3% GDP cut to be ridden of HK problems. China is far more worried about public image and international condemnation. Especially with all of the other scrutiny on China's affairs (xinjiang concentration camps etc)
- headsupftw 7y ago
  "HK only amounts to a small percentage of China's GDP now" Echoing this statement, HK accounted for 18% of China's GDP when it became part of China in 1997. Today its neighboring city Shenzhen alone generates more GDP than HK. Nobody saw this coming twenty years ago.
  - jorblumesea 7y ago
    The Chinese definitely saw it coming. The special economic zones were a specific plan to undercut HKs power and fuel mainland growth, which the CCP directly controlled. The mainland has always distrusted what it deems to be subversive ideas. HK and its ideas towards democracy has always been an existential threat.
- ethbro 7y ago
  HK was a backdoor into the rest of the world. Post-WTO, the Chinese are mostly through the front door without having had to change. So definitely less dependence on HK now. The British were still insane to give it back though. Say what you want about colonialism and how it was originally annexed, it was a strategic gem. They fought a war they could barely win over the Falklands, and then they hand Hong Kong over as a gift. There's no doubt China could have and probably would have taken it by force, but they also needed world acceptance a lot more at the time.
  - vkou 7y ago
Kenji 7y ago
> If the PLA move in, the wealthy elite in HK will start moving their assets out I would already start moving my assets out right fucking now. No, yesterday. The window in which you can move your assets and leave is closing as we speak. It's not gonna get better. People who don't want to get fucked by an authoritarian, socialist government have no choice other than fleeing. Singapore is authoritarian too, though.

by ab_c 7y ago

mc32 7y ago

I don’t think it’s this simple. Ultimately stability is paramount and more important than wealth. Self preservation of the CCP may require intervention. I’m sure they’d prefer to avoid having to use a heavy hand, but they will if they surmise that they have to.

immichaelwang 7y ago

China does not value the status/wellbeing of their millionaires/billionaires over the control of the CCP in people's minds, which is always the top priority.

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
Even worse: the million and billionaires all value their relationship with mainland China and the CCP more than their working-class HK brethren.
- AnimalMuppet 7y ago
  I think they value their millions and billions more than either. And they made a fair number of those millions and billions through their relationship with mainland China and the CCP. If it looks like the mainland CCP is going to cost them their millions and billions, though...
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    At this moment, at least, the CCP is mostly pro big business and friendly to the rich (as many of them are themselves now). Of course, that could change at anytime, but the interests of the rich are more closely aligned with the CCP than the protesters atm.
    - AnimalMuppet 7y ago
      Are the interests of the Hong Kong rich more closely aligned with the CCP? (As for the mainland rich, I agree with you... for the moment.)
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        Yes, I specifically meant the HK rich. They have lots of business interests outside of HK and inside China, so it isn’t very surprising that they are tied to the party at the hip. The same is actually true for Taiwan (rich Taiwanese are pro China even if working class Taiwanese are not).

jorblumesea 7y ago

HK only amounts to a small percentage of China's GDP now. This is also why HK has less free rein in its affairs. The "one state two systems" policy was convenient when HK was a giant in China and they needed the cash. With the economic free zones and growth of China itself, it's just less important compared to other cities in Guangdong. China would absolutely take a 2-3% GDP cut to be ridden of HK problems. China is far more worried about public image and international condemnation. Especially with all of the other scrutiny on China's affairs (xinjiang concentration camps etc)

headsupftw 7y ago
"HK only amounts to a small percentage of China's GDP now" Echoing this statement, HK accounted for 18% of China's GDP when it became part of China in 1997. Today its neighboring city Shenzhen alone generates more GDP than HK. Nobody saw this coming twenty years ago.
- jorblumesea 7y ago
  The Chinese definitely saw it coming. The special economic zones were a specific plan to undercut HKs power and fuel mainland growth, which the CCP directly controlled. The mainland has always distrusted what it deems to be subversive ideas. HK and its ideas towards democracy has always been an existential threat.
ethbro 7y ago
HK was a backdoor into the rest of the world. Post-WTO, the Chinese are mostly through the front door without having had to change. So definitely less dependence on HK now. The British were still insane to give it back though. Say what you want about colonialism and how it was originally annexed, it was a strategic gem. They fought a war they could barely win over the Falklands, and then they hand Hong Kong over as a gift. There's no doubt China could have and probably would have taken it by force, but they also needed world acceptance a lot more at the time.
- vkou 7y ago

Kenji 7y ago

> If the PLA move in, the wealthy elite in HK will start moving their assets out I would already start moving my assets out right fucking now. No, yesterday. The window in which you can move your assets and leave is closing as we speak. It's not gonna get better. People who don't want to get fucked by an authoritarian, socialist government have no choice other than fleeing. Singapore is authoritarian too, though.