3 ms·

I think they are coming to the wrong conclusions. They lost the plot at 7, so 8 is based on bad data. If the Time Value of Money has disappeared, then I sugge

I think they are coming to the wrong conclusions. They lost the plot at 7, so 8 is based on bad data. If the Time Value of Money has disappeared, then I suggest it is the money that is not worth the time. We have many historical case studies that show what happens on a broader time scale when a society's money is debauched. Time is the one true scarcity we all face. I am working at using it wisely... What have I got to lose? :)

benj111 7y ago
"We have many historical case studies that show what happens on a broader time scale when a society's money is debauched" All those are examples of high inflation, this isn't what we are seeing, and seemingly not what bond buyers are expecting to see.
- raintrees 7y ago
  Wouldn't that depend on which part of the cycle we are in? I repeatedly read that prognosticators are expecting both deflation and rapid inflation, but they are arguing over the order. And I am referring to large time cycles, the ones that play out over societal reformation periods, so I would not expect the bond market to reflect that scale of timing.
  - raintrees 7y ago
    In this I would expect it to be similar to the precious metals market - The major moves play out suddenly after years of "relative" quiet.
    - benj111 7y ago
      Who are the prognosticators? I've not read and not sure you accurately can predict medium/long term inflation rates. And what part of what cycle? I assumed when you said debauched, you meant quantitive easing and general money printing. If you, say, double the money supply there isn't going to be double the things to buy, so the cost of what there is will rise to compensate (inflation), or so the theory goes. That seems distinct from any kind of economic cycle, although obviously if you start printing money when theres deflationary pressures then that could act to stabilise the currency, but that doesn't sound like debauching the currency, and doesn't necessarily mean you need to keep printing the money when the inflationary pressure returns.
      - raintrees 7y ago
        Sorry, I am multi-tasking, and that poorly. I will look up some of the references, the names that seem to be coming to mind (looking over my RSS feeds) are Kuppy from Adventures in Capitalism, Chris Martensen from Peak Prosperity, Simon Black of Sovereign Man, Charles Hugh Smith of Of Two Minds, I think less-doom-prone authors on fee.org and mises.org. It is highly likely a biased list, I seem to have been gravitating towards the overall message of decay/decline, helped along by the citations of urban areas not doing too well in various places throughout the US. I live very rural along the northern coast of California, so more selection-bias there, as well. Yes on my debauchery reference, QE, TARP, increasing debt (temporary removal of the debt ceiling - oh boy), increasing obligations incurring more debt (social programs, retirements and benefits), the general idea of borrowing from our future to live for today that seems to be the current m.o. And now apparently little in the way of an anchor for US currency (or other central bank nations, for that matter) since removal from the Gold standard, and recently the demise of Bretton Woods as other nations seek ways around being forced to use US currency. This leads me to conclude that we are on the down-slope of Charles Hugh Smith's S curve: https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.ht... Have to run, cooking (experimental tomatillos, tomatoes, and Cilantro sauce) as well as doing some remote tech support.
Dylan16807 7y ago
> If the Time Value of Money has disappeared, then I suggest it is the money that is not worth the time. What a baffling statement. "If my money can't spontaneously create new money, then why should I try to earn any?" If anything, lowered time-value increases the importance of trading time for cash. And value being too stable is the opposite of being debauched.
- raintrees 7y ago
  Money is a tool we use to facilitate trade. Price assignation has been distorted by "corrective action." Traditionally, bonds would be purchased as a hedge/guarantee of future value, and not to be charged a loss of that value instead. Anecdotally, I am slowly raising my service prices as my costs rise. To me, this is evidence that my dollar (I'm in the US) is not going as far as it used to. And yet costs in a healthy financial system should normally be driven down, by typical Austrian Economic thinking. As I posted elsewhere, my observations are for a different time scale than bonds are usually measured against. Sorry for the confusion. :) I have been spending too much time thinking macro...
  - benj111 7y ago
    "Anecdotally, I am slowly raising my service prices as my costs rise. To me, this is evidence that my dollar (I'm in the US) is not going as far as it used to. And yet costs in a healthy financial system should normally be driven down, by typical Austrian Economic thinking" I don't think that's correct. You're referring to competition and efficiencies, not inflation. "The Austrian school believes any increase in the money supply not supported by an increase in the production of goods and services leads to an increase in prices" https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/austrian-school-of-economics.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/austrian-...

benj111 7y ago

"We have many historical case studies that show what happens on a broader time scale when a society's money is debauched" All those are examples of high inflation, this isn't what we are seeing, and seemingly not what bond buyers are expecting to see.

raintrees 7y ago
Wouldn't that depend on which part of the cycle we are in? I repeatedly read that prognosticators are expecting both deflation and rapid inflation, but they are arguing over the order. And I am referring to large time cycles, the ones that play out over societal reformation periods, so I would not expect the bond market to reflect that scale of timing.
- raintrees 7y ago
  In this I would expect it to be similar to the precious metals market - The major moves play out suddenly after years of "relative" quiet.
  - benj111 7y ago
    Who are the prognosticators? I've not read and not sure you accurately can predict medium/long term inflation rates. And what part of what cycle? I assumed when you said debauched, you meant quantitive easing and general money printing. If you, say, double the money supply there isn't going to be double the things to buy, so the cost of what there is will rise to compensate (inflation), or so the theory goes. That seems distinct from any kind of economic cycle, although obviously if you start printing money when theres deflationary pressures then that could act to stabilise the currency, but that doesn't sound like debauching the currency, and doesn't necessarily mean you need to keep printing the money when the inflationary pressure returns.
    - raintrees 7y ago
      Sorry, I am multi-tasking, and that poorly. I will look up some of the references, the names that seem to be coming to mind (looking over my RSS feeds) are Kuppy from Adventures in Capitalism, Chris Martensen from Peak Prosperity, Simon Black of Sovereign Man, Charles Hugh Smith of Of Two Minds, I think less-doom-prone authors on fee.org and mises.org. It is highly likely a biased list, I seem to have been gravitating towards the overall message of decay/decline, helped along by the citations of urban areas not doing too well in various places throughout the US. I live very rural along the northern coast of California, so more selection-bias there, as well. Yes on my debauchery reference, QE, TARP, increasing debt (temporary removal of the debt ceiling - oh boy), increasing obligations incurring more debt (social programs, retirements and benefits), the general idea of borrowing from our future to live for today that seems to be the current m.o. And now apparently little in the way of an anchor for US currency (or other central bank nations, for that matter) since removal from the Gold standard, and recently the demise of Bretton Woods as other nations seek ways around being forced to use US currency. This leads me to conclude that we are on the down-slope of Charles Hugh Smith's S curve: https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.html https://www.oftwominds.com/blogmar19/empires-collapse3-19.ht... Have to run, cooking (experimental tomatillos, tomatoes, and Cilantro sauce) as well as doing some remote tech support.

Dylan16807 7y ago

> If the Time Value of Money has disappeared, then I suggest it is the money that is not worth the time. What a baffling statement. "If my money can't spontaneously create new money, then why should I try to earn any?" If anything, lowered time-value increases the importance of trading time for cash. And value being too stable is the opposite of being debauched.

raintrees 7y ago
Money is a tool we use to facilitate trade. Price assignation has been distorted by "corrective action." Traditionally, bonds would be purchased as a hedge/guarantee of future value, and not to be charged a loss of that value instead. Anecdotally, I am slowly raising my service prices as my costs rise. To me, this is evidence that my dollar (I'm in the US) is not going as far as it used to. And yet costs in a healthy financial system should normally be driven down, by typical Austrian Economic thinking. As I posted elsewhere, my observations are for a different time scale than bonds are usually measured against. Sorry for the confusion. :) I have been spending too much time thinking macro...
- benj111 7y ago
  "Anecdotally, I am slowly raising my service prices as my costs rise. To me, this is evidence that my dollar (I'm in the US) is not going as far as it used to. And yet costs in a healthy financial system should normally be driven down, by typical Austrian Economic thinking" I don't think that's correct. You're referring to competition and efficiencies, not inflation. "The Austrian school believes any increase in the money supply not supported by an increase in the production of goods and services leads to an increase in prices" https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/austrian-school-of-economics.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/austrian-...