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It makes sense. Xi has a lot more to lose than he has to gain by cracking down on Hong Kong.

duxup 7y ago
It does, although arguably Hong Hong is hardly as big of the China pie as it once was. One day perhaps they decide it time to bring them into the fold. Arguably the law was a step towards it.
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  HK will be completely integrated into the mainland by 2047, at least according to the treaty DXP signed with Thatcher.
  - not2b 7y ago
    The treaty promises that Hong Kong would keep its separate system of government until 2047, but I don't believe it specifies what happens after that. It's hard to predict what will happen, but I doubt if it will instantly become like any other Chinese city.
    - jonathankoren 7y ago
      No, the plan is that when 2047 comes, Hong Kong will be just another Chinese city. That’s why Beijing is changing the school curriculum. And that’s why there were protests in 2012. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/world/asia/thousands-protest-chinas-curriculum-plans-for-hong-kong-schools.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/world/asia/thousands-prot...
      - loyukfai 7y ago
        There are different aspirations and opinions as to what will happen after 2047, but thus far it has not been clearly defined or publicly stated. Clearly, to become another Chinese city like Shenzhen is an option. At the same time, it's just one of the options.
        jonathankoren 7y ago
        Well, I guess we'll see what Beijing decides, because Hong Kong's opinion is moot.
        loyukfai 7y ago
        Well, I have to sadly agree, to a certain extent, but IMO it's not set in stone either. We'll see.
  - my_username_is_ 7y ago
    As not2b suggests, it's more nuanced than "Hong Kong is just another city by 2047". Firstly, they're supposed to be separate for at least 50 years. The ambiguity comes in with determining how separate the "two systems" really should be. Are they allowed to specify the national curriculum? Are they allowed to extradite criminals? After the 50 years are up, Hong Kong can potentially continue to act semi-autonomously as an SAR. (It's just not supposed to change until after that date.) Hong Kong's current status is economically advantageous to China, as companies have a place to make inroads to the large Chinese market in a business-friendly environment that typically respects the rule of law. The SAR is also given special economic status by some foreign countries, which would likely be taken away upon 'complete integration'. The integration that you're talking about is going to be a long process, and there won't be a singular point where it's clearly happened. So we shouldn't be surprised that China is making efforts to integrate now, but we also shouldn't be surprised by the resistance.
- loyukfai 7y ago
  Yes, but China is highly unlikely willing to start or pour in more oil into the fire considering her current economic situations. Hong Kong is not as important as in 20 or 30 years ago, but it's not Xinjiang either.
tepidandroid 7y ago
There is no need for Xi or China's establishment to do anything here. They will simply wait it out. Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. There is no end game where democracy and freedom wins and they secede from China and live happily ever after. What will most likely happen: the everyday people (shopkeepers, professionals, etc) who need to earn a living will tire of the endless disruptions currently paralyzing their streets and businesses. They will realize that the more radical elements of the demonstrations are undermining the very things that they are fighting for that make Hong Kong an attractive place for investment and international business in the first place: societal stability and the rule of law. This will most likely occur some time around mid-August, when the school season begins.
- derefr 7y ago
  > Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. They're dependent on their relationship with somebody. Not necessarily China. It used to be Britain. It could be someone else. (Maybe the US, similar to the relationship the US has with Japan, South Korea, and sorta-Taiwan.)
  - bllguo 7y ago
    but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China
    - derefr 7y ago
      North Korea is valuable to Russia and China because it keeps (US-allied) South Korea away from having a land bridge into either of those countries. In other words, entire countries can be propped up for decades not on their worth as an ally or vassal, but rather on their worth as a hindrance to your enemies. I would expect, if HK found a new patron, it'd be for that reason.
      - r00fus 7y ago
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

It does, although arguably Hong Hong is hardly as big of the China pie as it once was. One day perhaps they decide it time to bring them into the fold. Arguably the law was a step towards it.

seanmcdirmid 7y ago
HK will be completely integrated into the mainland by 2047, at least according to the treaty DXP signed with Thatcher.
- not2b 7y ago
  The treaty promises that Hong Kong would keep its separate system of government until 2047, but I don't believe it specifies what happens after that. It's hard to predict what will happen, but I doubt if it will instantly become like any other Chinese city.
  - jonathankoren 7y ago
    No, the plan is that when 2047 comes, Hong Kong will be just another Chinese city. That’s why Beijing is changing the school curriculum. And that’s why there were protests in 2012. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/world/asia/thousands-protest-chinas-curriculum-plans-for-hong-kong-schools.html https://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/world/asia/thousands-prot...
    - loyukfai 7y ago
      There are different aspirations and opinions as to what will happen after 2047, but thus far it has not been clearly defined or publicly stated. Clearly, to become another Chinese city like Shenzhen is an option. At the same time, it's just one of the options.
      - jonathankoren 7y ago
        Well, I guess we'll see what Beijing decides, because Hong Kong's opinion is moot.
        loyukfai 7y ago
        Well, I have to sadly agree, to a certain extent, but IMO it's not set in stone either. We'll see.
- my_username_is_ 7y ago
  As not2b suggests, it's more nuanced than "Hong Kong is just another city by 2047". Firstly, they're supposed to be separate for at least 50 years. The ambiguity comes in with determining how separate the "two systems" really should be. Are they allowed to specify the national curriculum? Are they allowed to extradite criminals? After the 50 years are up, Hong Kong can potentially continue to act semi-autonomously as an SAR. (It's just not supposed to change until after that date.) Hong Kong's current status is economically advantageous to China, as companies have a place to make inroads to the large Chinese market in a business-friendly environment that typically respects the rule of law. The SAR is also given special economic status by some foreign countries, which would likely be taken away upon 'complete integration'. The integration that you're talking about is going to be a long process, and there won't be a singular point where it's clearly happened. So we shouldn't be surprised that China is making efforts to integrate now, but we also shouldn't be surprised by the resistance.
loyukfai 7y ago
Yes, but China is highly unlikely willing to start or pour in more oil into the fire considering her current economic situations. Hong Kong is not as important as in 20 or 30 years ago, but it's not Xinjiang either.

tepidandroid 7y ago

There is no need for Xi or China's establishment to do anything here. They will simply wait it out. Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. There is no end game where democracy and freedom wins and they secede from China and live happily ever after. What will most likely happen: the everyday people (shopkeepers, professionals, etc) who need to earn a living will tire of the endless disruptions currently paralyzing their streets and businesses. They will realize that the more radical elements of the demonstrations are undermining the very things that they are fighting for that make Hong Kong an attractive place for investment and international business in the first place: societal stability and the rule of law. This will most likely occur some time around mid-August, when the school season begins.

derefr 7y ago
> Hong Kong is and always will be wholly dependent on its relationship with China. They're dependent on their relationship with somebody. Not necessarily China. It used to be Britain. It could be someone else. (Maybe the US, similar to the relationship the US has with Japan, South Korea, and sorta-Taiwan.)
- bllguo 7y ago
  but they were only valuable to the UK because it was their gateway to China. it has always been about the relationship to China
  - derefr 7y ago
    North Korea is valuable to Russia and China because it keeps (US-allied) South Korea away from having a land bridge into either of those countries. In other words, entire countries can be propped up for decades not on their worth as an ally or vassal, but rather on their worth as a hindrance to your enemies. I would expect, if HK found a new patron, it'd be for that reason.
    - r00fus 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]