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I agree with this, plus another factor that I rarely hear discussed is the lifecycle of electric cars. If Elon is to be believed, electric cars should have a us

I agree with this, plus another factor that I rarely hear discussed is the lifecycle of electric cars. If Elon is to be believed, electric cars should have a useable lifespan about 5 times longer than ICE. Are the traditional automakers prepared for Americans to come in for new cars once every few decades instead of once every few years?

flyinglizard 7y ago
That’s Elon talking out of his ass again. ICE vehicles have a lifespan of 15+ years already on the original engine and transmission, while electrics will need their battery replaced outright at some point and at a massive cost. You don’t normally stop driving a car because it’s not working, you sell it way in advance because you want something newer/safer/better.
- bluGill 7y ago
  More importantly, ICE vehicles are generally scrapped not because the engine is wore out, but because the body is. Miles of driving on rough roads shakes all kinds of parts to fatigue. UV degrade the paint and plastic. Ozone degrades the door seals. Road salt eats anything iron. It all adds up to cars being wore out despite having a good engine.
_jal 7y ago
Musk is a huckster. Average car life, depending on what numbers you use, is 12-18 years. There will probably be a 60 year old Tesla when we get there, but there will not be a fleet of them.
- jellicle 7y ago
  Teslas will probably be the shortest life vehicle on the road. I am not commenting on their quality, but instead the likelihood that Tesla will simply EOL the older vehicles at some point. "It's no longer worth while for us to keep up our original models, so we're turning them all off on January 1, 2021. All owners will receive a $2000 credit toward purchasing a new vehicle....". That's how it goes when you're buying a service rather than an object (see also: DRM books, etc.). CERTAINLY there will never be a 60-year-old Tesla. Can't legally maintain it, can't drive it without Tesla's support, and they won't.
  - _jal 7y ago
    > CERTAINLY there will never be a 60-year-old Tesla Yes there will. It will sit in some rich guy's garage, hacked up to function without mothership contact, and specialty publications will publish pictures of it every few years.
    - imtringued 7y ago
      That rich guy will just buy the latest luxury car every 4 years.
  - maxsilver 7y ago
    I get your point, most people won't be driving a Tesla in 60 years. But there certainly will be someone who maintains an original 2010s-era Tesla. There are people who still own fully-functional Ford Model T's from ~1910. They are over 100 years old, and they still drive them through the Memorial Day Parade every year.
  - Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
    > "It's no longer worth while for us to keep up our original models, so we're turning them all off on January 1, 2021. All owners will receive a $2000 credit toward purchasing a new vehicle....". I'm not sure if this is intended to be hyperbole or just extreme pessimism. If Tesla decided to just "shut off" everyone's car for being too old, they'd be hit with a class-action lawsuit as soon as a lawyer drafted it. At worst, they could decide to stop manufacturing parts, but even that's unlikely, as parts could still be sold for profit to people that need repairs. I know right now there's long waits for replacement parts, but that's due to production prioritizing building more cars to be delivered, not for providing replacement parts.

flyinglizard 7y ago

That’s Elon talking out of his ass again. ICE vehicles have a lifespan of 15+ years already on the original engine and transmission, while electrics will need their battery replaced outright at some point and at a massive cost. You don’t normally stop driving a car because it’s not working, you sell it way in advance because you want something newer/safer/better.

bluGill 7y ago
More importantly, ICE vehicles are generally scrapped not because the engine is wore out, but because the body is. Miles of driving on rough roads shakes all kinds of parts to fatigue. UV degrade the paint and plastic. Ozone degrades the door seals. Road salt eats anything iron. It all adds up to cars being wore out despite having a good engine.

_jal 7y ago

Musk is a huckster. Average car life, depending on what numbers you use, is 12-18 years. There will probably be a 60 year old Tesla when we get there, but there will not be a fleet of them.

jellicle 7y ago
Teslas will probably be the shortest life vehicle on the road. I am not commenting on their quality, but instead the likelihood that Tesla will simply EOL the older vehicles at some point. "It's no longer worth while for us to keep up our original models, so we're turning them all off on January 1, 2021. All owners will receive a $2000 credit toward purchasing a new vehicle....". That's how it goes when you're buying a service rather than an object (see also: DRM books, etc.). CERTAINLY there will never be a 60-year-old Tesla. Can't legally maintain it, can't drive it without Tesla's support, and they won't.
- _jal 7y ago
  > CERTAINLY there will never be a 60-year-old Tesla Yes there will. It will sit in some rich guy's garage, hacked up to function without mothership contact, and specialty publications will publish pictures of it every few years.
  - imtringued 7y ago
    That rich guy will just buy the latest luxury car every 4 years.
- maxsilver 7y ago
  I get your point, most people won't be driving a Tesla in 60 years. But there certainly will be someone who maintains an original 2010s-era Tesla. There are people who still own fully-functional Ford Model T's from ~1910. They are over 100 years old, and they still drive them through the Memorial Day Parade every year.
- Sohcahtoa82 7y ago
  > "It's no longer worth while for us to keep up our original models, so we're turning them all off on January 1, 2021. All owners will receive a $2000 credit toward purchasing a new vehicle....". I'm not sure if this is intended to be hyperbole or just extreme pessimism. If Tesla decided to just "shut off" everyone's car for being too old, they'd be hit with a class-action lawsuit as soon as a lawyer drafted it. At worst, they could decide to stop manufacturing parts, but even that's unlikely, as parts could still be sold for profit to people that need repairs. I know right now there's long waits for replacement parts, but that's due to production prioritizing building more cars to be delivered, not for providing replacement parts.