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Ford and VW Agree to Share Costs of Self-Driving and Electric Cars
- bob33212 7y agoThis may sound like a conspiracy theory, but I think that these journalists are downplaying tesla, to troll us and get is to rage and share these articles
- Waterluvian 7y agoI'm not sure if there's such thing as a tenured journalist but there ought to be. If my mortgage payment depended on view count I would definitely have a bias whether I meant it or not.
- radicalbyte 7y agoIn the UK there sort of is. A disproportionate number of journalists come from the Upper and Upper Middle classes. They're sent to private school then study something fluffy (English, Politics, Psychology) and then go work for one of the big national papers. They don't need to work so can spend their time promoting their causes.
- adrianN 7y agoProbably a big portion of HN's readers are at least upper middle class. That doesn't mean that they don't have to work. Median income is a lot lower than people think, as are median savings. Double or triple the median definitely puts you in the upper middle class, but it's still a for cry from not having to work.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- pault 7y agoThe British class system is different than in the US. Your class has much more to do with your family than your income.
- pjc50 7y agoThe peak example of this is Boris Johnson, who earns more as a Spectator "journalist" than as a Minister.
- chvid 7y agoTesla? I thought they had gone bankrupt.
- beat 7y agoAnd if you read the media and don't look at the numbers, of course you'd think that. I ran the numbers a while back, for a similar discussion. They've grown faster than Amazon ever did, for a decade. It's kind of astounding. No, they're not profitable - and they shouldn't be. They're about a tenth the size of a major manufacturer like Toyota or GM now. If they want to play in that league, being profitable is fiscally irresponsible. They should be squeezing every cent they can out of investors and burning cash like they need it to keep warm, because that's fueling this astounding growth. Insisting that they be profitable or not take loans or stock sales to raise cash is a complete misunderstanding of how high growth companies work.
- DanCarvajal 7y agoI think the conspiracy is how much they've overplayed Tesla. Let's meet in the middle.
- runeb 7y agoDepends on where you live I guess. Here in Norway 25% of all new cars sold is a Tesla.
- Certhas 7y agoThat's an extreme outlier though. The vast majority of BEV vehicles sold are Chinese. And I am not sure it will last either. Volkswagen is planning to switch a factory that puts out 350.000 cars per year to 100% EV by middle of next year[1]. We'll soon find out what the relative difficulty of scaling from scratch vs switching at scale truly are. [1] https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-07/automatisierung-volkswagen-vw-arbeitsplaetze-roboter-elektromobilitaet-werk-zwickau https://www.zeit.de/wirtschaft/2019-07/automatisierung-volks...
- aaronblohowiak 7y agoWhere are the batteries going to come from for that? I will bet you a thousand usd with 2:1 odds they do not produce 350,000 bev by July of 2021
- Certhas 7y agoAnd why not? Remember that VW has ten times the R&D budget that Tesla has [2], and that they are committing to going heavily electric over the next years, and that the plans for this switch have been developing over many years already. Concretely they are building up joint ventures with all major manufacturers [1]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batteries/vw-to-deepen-alliances-with-battery-suppliers-for-electric-push-idUSKCN1U30I8 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-volkswagen-electric-batte... [2] https://i.imgur.com/AFzfS6i.png https://i.imgur.com/AFzfS6i.png Edit: BMW by comparison, does not seem to have a plan, has not worked towards a cultural shift towards EV, etc... Tesla might well eat their lunch for years to come...
- mensetmanusman 7y agoWow! I wonder what the C-suite discussions were like that led to a collaboration between rivals on this topic. Thoughts: -They are being hit on two major fronts simultaneously from the valley -Cost of ML/AI experts is too high for these MBAs to fathom -Risk of Waymo winning is existential -Risk of Tesla winning hurts their high margin vehicle sales
- toomuchtodo 7y agoThe threat is real. Tesla has eaten into BMW sales enough that their CEO just departed because of it. https://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-domination-reportedly-cause-bmw-ceo-resignation-2805196 https://www.ibtimes.com/tesla-domination-reportedly-cause-bm...
- judge2020 7y agoProbably also due to how far behind their general EV tech is https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/9/20687413/bmw-electric-mini-cooper-specs-release https://www.theverge.com/2019/7/9/20687413/bmw-electric-mini...
- leetcrew 7y agoI see it more as a hedge. I think the prevailing opinion is growing bearish on fully self driving cars. great progress has been made, but as we (the public, at least) learn more, it just seems like production ready vehicles are further away. my take is that the technology is too valuable (and disruptive) to not invest at all, but so expensive and far away that it doesn't make sense for an established manufacturer to give it the full court press.
- electriclove 7y agoI agree it's a hedge.. but for a slightly different reason. The legacy automakers have been fighting BEVs and though they have made many announcements, they really don't offer (and don't want to offer) much in the US that isn't a compliance car. They have been teasing upcoming concepts and electrification (code word for hybrid) because they are trying to prevent disruption of their (automakers, fuel suppliers, trucking, dealerships, gas stations, unions, etc) status quo. With every milestone that is being made by Tesla, Waymo, etc, they are more at risk. This is them hedging against change. "If things truly change, we'll work together and be able to catch up."
- scotty79 7y agoIs that even legal? Shouldn't commpanies that offer same products compete rather than cooperate?
- codeulike 7y agoToyota figured out the Hybrid tech and then licensed it to everyone else, if I remember correctly.
- switchb4 7y agoLol
- arethuza 7y agoVW seems to specialise in having a number of brands that sell similar vehicles that differ in fairly minor ways.
- bluGill 7y agomost car companies do.
- iamnotacrook 7y ago"Is that even legal?" What law would it break? Why wouldn't that imaginary law also apply to, say, mobile phone manufacturers who have entered into agreements to use each other's patents without specific permission or payments?
- gambiting 7y agoWhat? Of course it is. Companies develop certain models together and then they sell it under their own brands all the time. Peugeot Partner/Citroen Berlingo and pretty much every van out there is a shared development.
- JorgeGT 7y agoThat's true, but in that case Peugeot and Citroën have been the same company since more than 40 years ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupe_PSA https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupe_PSA
- distant_hat 7y agoCar sales are rapidly declining across the world and we may have hit peak car. Consolidation will likely arise in a market like this by itself. Combine this with the threat from companies like Tesla and you can see the old behemoths wanting to combine forces.
- melling 7y agoNo, you made that up. There has been no decline. https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car-sales-since-1990/ https://www.statista.com/statistics/200002/international-car... We’re going to add another 2 billion people and the world is getting richer. What do you think that will do the car sales?
- yifanl 7y agoUm, in the link you give, it shows that car sales have not grown in the past 2 years.
- Zircom 7y agoUm, in the comment you're replying to, his claim was that car sales are not 'rapidly declining', which is still true if they are plateauing.
- lkbm 7y agoBloomberg made it up[0]. It's mostly true of the US, though. [0] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-28/this-is-what-peak-car-looks-like https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-02-28/this-is-w... EDIT: More specifically on car sales, they do mention a decline in China: "IHS sees the biggest impact of mobility services coming in China. Auto sales there plunged 18 percent in January, an unprecedented seventh consecutive monthly decline, as commuters rapidly embraced ride-hailing."
- melling 7y agoThe article also says: “Researcher IHS Markit predicts the 100 million vehicle milestone will be surpassed in the next decade, but only because of growth in China, India, Russia, and other emerging markets” China is already a much bigger car market than the US. They are also experiencing a bit of an economic slowdown, probably cause by the trade war. https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/china-economic-growth-slowing-to-30-year-low-trade-war-2019-7-1028342430 https://markets.businessinsider.com/amp/news/china-economic-...
- codeulike 7y agoAll the traditional car manufacturers make announcements all the time about how they're going to be really good at EVs in 5 years time or whatever. They've been saying stuff like this for a decade now. Here's a VW press release from 2013: September 9, 2013 /PRNewswire/ -- The Volkswagen Group has set its sights on global market leadership in electric mobility. "We are starting at exactly the right time. We are electrifying all vehicle classes, and therefore have everything we need to make the Volkswagen Group the top automaker in all respects, including electric mobility, by 2018", Prof. Dr. Martin Winterkorn, CEO of Volkswagen Aktiengesellschaft, said on the eve of the 65th International Motor Show in Frankfurt am Main. https://tass.com/press-releases/700457 https://tass.com/press-releases/700457 So far its been bullshit from most* of the incumbents because the boardrooms can't give up on the idea of ICE. * Honourable mention to Hyundai and Kia who have cars on the road that can genuinely compete with Tesla. Unfortunately they can't source enough batteries to make many of them. * And ok Nissan and BMW and co had quite good 120-mile range EVs a few years ago but thats all history now, its 200 miles or forget it from now on. * ok yeah the Bolt was quite good but they didn't bother launching it in my country (uk) so its not on my radar, and they didn't bother trying to sell any cos they were making them at a huge loss * ok Nissan do have a 200+ mile range Leaf now so I'll give them credit for that. There are general concerns about price and lack of battery cooling though.
- graycrow 7y agoYes, this is pretty exact description of a current state of affairs in the EV market. I would also mention Renault and PSA (with Opel), which also trying to ride on EV wave.
- orbifold 7y agoWell VW is due to release cars based on their new electric platform this year and the next few years going forward. They are called id https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/e-mobility/en.html https://www.volkswagen.co.uk/e-mobility/en.html. I don't think they are necessarily late. BMW and Mercedes have made similar investments in all electric platforms. They are all basically going full force in that direction now and have been for a few years. Note that VWs platform will find its way into cars of all of their other brands (SEAT, Skoda and so on). BMWs CEO left recently because he did not execute quickly enough on their electric strategy squandering their initial lead.
- ghobs91 7y agoIt's interesting that two of the largest automakers in the world need to work together to compete with a company the size of Tesla in this arena.
- bluGill 7y agoNot really. Large automakers have been working together for years. It is interesting that Tesla thinks they can compete without doing this (I'm not sure how true this statement is).
- toomuchtodo 7y agoTesla owns a battery factory (which both at the time and in hindsight, was of course the right thing to do; Tesla predicted at a 500k unit/year run rate they would consume worldwide battery production capacity if they did not build their own batteries). Their powertrain sled is years ahead of the competition (per Sandy Munro's teardown). All other automakers are struggling to secure battery supply, and still don't recognize that they're no longer just bolting OE bin parts together, but the powertrain (battery, motors, inverters) must be core of their business (V1 and V2 Superchargers used stacked Model S/X inverters, V3 now uses bespoke [more efficient] power equipment; what other auto manufacturer is designing and building their own charge infrastructure?). It is unlikely a partnership would provide any value to Tesla unless a legacy automaker would like to hand over their manufacturing capacity.
- bluGill 7y agoTesla partnered with Panasonic to create that battery factory. Supply management is a core competency for the big automakers. Do not confuse not as far along with their EV journey with incompetent at it. If things are not available in their OE bin they are good at creating the supply. Auto manufactures are not building charging stations because that shouldn't be a core competency. Tesla being first may have been forced to build them, but as EV takes off others will get into the game. It is better for the big automakers if they have a universal charging connector and let many others worry about how to get a charging station elsewhere. It is a distraction from building cars to spend time building a charging system (one Tesla probably had to take on, but as EVs become more common others will step up to create them)
- chvid 7y agoDoes autonomous vehicles not lend themselves to some sort of standardization? Rather than constructing something is completely able to drive on its own with an ability to learn traffic, signage, weather, roads etc. Instead create something that relies on standards and communicates with a central authority on road information, traffic, planning etc. It seems to me that one could make something that is a lot cheaper, a far easier to implement, a lot safer, more environmental by letting go of the ideal that the vehicle should be autonomous.
- Klathmon 7y agoThe problem is then you are driving an "IoT car". One hack of a "central server", one lying or broken set of sensors, one crack or loss of encryption keys, and someone has control over a huge number of cars. Plus you run into issues of what happens if the central server goes down, connection issues, new or changing scenery or tons of other little issues. IMO companies working on self driving are on the right track here. That car should be able to fully self drive alongside humans without a single byte of data going in or out of the car.
- jmilloy 7y agoI don't entirely disagree, but do the cars have to phone home in order to share standardized information with standardized communication protocols?
- pault 7y agoI would add to that by saying that governments should meet half way and standardize road markings designed for CV. In that scenario the worst thing an attacker could do is paint patterns that confuse the car, but they can do that already.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- chvid 7y agoI was thinking it would work for the end-user a bit like cruise control. You drive you car to a highway that supports this form of driving. You press a button and you essentially let the authority of that highway drive you to your destination (or selected exit of that highway). A central authority can handle coordination, change of environment, safety much better than a single agent.
- im3w1l 7y agoWould it be correct to say their failing was prioritizing dividends over vision in a time of cheap money (low interest)?
- tim333 7y agoStrategically it seems to make sense to cooperate so as to have more cash to compete with Waymo, Telsa and Ford. Their joint sales are ~ 16.6m vehicles/year so even if they spend a bunch that's not so much per car compared with Waymo and Tesla for similar spend.
- SN76477 7y agoI have always felt that autonomous vehicles should be open source. It will change the world when they finally make it happen and it will be if it everyone.
- MisterBastahrd 7y agoEVs will have a true breakthrough in the marketplace when single-charge mileage at highway speeds is longer than the distance that the average person would tolerate driving in a day. Don't think daily driver. Think road trip. So about 600 miles or so.
- floatrock 7y agoWhy optimize for the 5% case other than "well, that's how we do things now"? EVs will have a true breakthrough in the marketplace when batteries will hit economies of scale and drop in price enough for the car to hit price parity with ICE. At that point, the mechanical simplicity and lower maintenance & operations costs will make EV's a no-brainer for everyone. And according to which consulting shop's learning curves you look at, that day is only 2-3 years away.
- Marsymars 7y agoEven at price parity, still a tough sell for people without a garage to charge their car in.
- Sohcahtoa82 7y ago5% case is generous. More like 1% case. And even 600 miles isn't necessary unless you're the type to eat while driving. I much prefer to stop somewhere and eat and stretch out for a bit. That 30+ minutes should be spent plugged into a charger.
- dv_dt 7y agoAt what point does this go from partnering in tech development to anti-trust collusion?
- konschubert 7y agoI guess at the point where EVs and SDVs gain significant market share
- bryanmgreen 7y agoGood. There should be more collaboration to improve the impact of vehicles on our planet. Let the automakers compete mostly over exterior and interior design, not power units. That'd be a win for people, companies, and our planet.
- wcarron 7y agoGreat and all, but I'll never purchase an EV if I can help it. They are garbage, in my opinion. They feel like cheap toys, like go karts. I've driven and ridden in Teslas and, aside from the acceleration, there's nothing special about it. Besides, as a motorcycle rider, even the Tesla Model 3 0-60 isn't anything magical. It's...mundane to riders (who aren't on Harleys). The P100D ludicrous mode, however, is objectively insane. Call me a luddite, but I want to shift gears. I want an I6 or V8 ICE that puts out gratuitous amounts of power and, yes, NOISE. I want sharp steering feedback and beefy front rotors and stiff, aggressive suspension. I don't want a damn Chevy Bolt, I want a real freaking sports car with all the money poured into the performance, and none into comfort. There are tons of buyers like me, too. SoCal has a huuuge car culture of guys who buy old toyotas, porsches old and new, Rx7s, miatas, BRZs and WRK STIs, old Lancer Evos. Tons of us LIKE driving. Tons of us LIKE offensively loud engines. Tons of us LIKE manually shifting. What about us? What happens when other people finally surrender their autonomy to shitty self-driving EVs? What Ford should really do is build a mid/rear engined mustang-based sport coupe. Enough of the autonomous vehicle nonsense. It's over a decade away anyway. Let the people who like driving, drive!
- bluGill 7y agoThere are tons of you, but you are still a small minority.
- ISL 7y agoNobody says car buyers of the future have to buy an EV. This transition is not unlike the shift from film cameras to digital imaging. Film is far from dead, but the economies of scale, particularly in film-camera manufacturing have disappeared. The romance of the photographic darkroom is still alive and well. If self-driving cars live up to the hype, in the distant future, insurance companies may charge more to insure human drivers, and carbon taxes may make ICEs slightly more expensive to operate, but otherwise, it is an open road. From a technical perspective, nothing about EV design forbids tight suspension, responsive steering, and quick acceleration/braking. Indeed, stripping all the comfort from a car will tend to make it lighter, and electronic control is likely to permit quicker response times all around. The only thing that an EV cannot deliver is the noise of an open pipe (without the silliness of a retrofitted speaker). I backcountry ski a lot, in areas shared with snowmobilers who love the 'BRAAP' of a barely-muffled two-stroke. I keep hoping for a competent electric snowmobile, not just for the quiet, but also so snowmobilers might glimpse the life-changing experience of being immersed in both deep powder and silence at thirty miles an hour. Run silent, run deep. (and, well, when an F/A-18's afterburner rips the sky in half, elate, 'cause that's rad, too.)
- Gravityloss 7y agoIdeally you want to replace the most kilometers per year by electric ones. This means short trips. Who cares if you drive a thousand on the single long vacation trip per year if you drive cumulatively ten thousand on short ones. So a plugin hybrid makes a lot of sense from CO2 and city air quality sense, as well as from fuel savings sense. They wouldn't need a huge combustion engine or anything. I don't know why they are so rare or why they tend to have extra complicated big twin turbo combustion engines etc. As far as I know, the BMW i3 with REX (Range ExtendeR) is the only one in this category, and it hasn't been updated since 2013. For example the Huyndai Ioniq plug in hybrid has a 1.6 liter 105 kilowatt gasoline engine and a full sized gearbox. Is that necessary? The car sales sites suck at ordering cars by the relevant feature which is pure electric range. The manufacturers have always been hopeless with their web sites. Tesla is probably the only one worth going to and that is only because they have so few models and options. With others the best option is to download the pdf:s with prices.