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If statically speaking, preparing for the end is the sanest course of action because it does appear to be the most likely scenario within the next 50 years, why

If statically speaking, preparing for the end is the sanest course of action because it does appear to be the most likely scenario within the next 50 years, why wouldn't it be the right mindset?

brightball 7y ago
Because if it doesn’t happen then what have you gained? If it does happen than what have you lost? It just rings like all of the people claiming “end times” for hundreds of years. But more specifically, is everybody on earth getting the same message? If not...why?
- Daishiman 7y ago
  > Because if it doesn’t happen then what have you gained? If it does happen than what have you lost? For those of us who don't have a particularly strong desire to have children this is very much a dealbreaker. > It just rings like all of the people claiming “end times” for hundreds of years. The only way that would be the case is if you ignore the evidence that makes the current situation untentable in a way that no other prior instance of history has been.
  - brightball 7y ago
    The current situation? We’ve previously had the threat of nuclear war situation and 2 world wars in the last 100 years. With a single scientific advance that would allow rapid carbon capture from the atmosphere, we could be having a totally different conversation.
    - ForHackernews 7y ago
      > With a single scientific advance that would allow rapid carbon capture from the atmosphere ... and reverse the laws of thermodynamics, too! Recapturing atmospheric CO2 means working to transform from a high-entropy state to a lower-entropy state. That's not going to happen for free. So you need to have: 1) A fast efficient carbon-capture mechanism. 2) A way to generate lots and lots of power that doesn't itself produce CO2. You're not describing a "single scientific advance" as much as you're describing dozens or hundreds of major feats of engineering. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I would not bet the planet on it.
      - brightball 7y ago
        Nuclear already accomplishes the power requirements though. As far as I can tell it’s more about having a working option and then paying for it. But even if we aren’t betting the planet on it...this is akin to a poker game where all of your money is already in the middle. Folding the hand just means you lose. There is literally nothing to gain by giving up. Nothing.
imgabe 7y ago
How is preparing for the end logical "statistically speaking"? The world has ended 0 times so far. The world has a 100% record of not ending.
- ForHackernews 7y ago
  This is the anthropic fallacy[0]: if and when society does collapse, you won't be here arguing about it. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
  - imgabe 7y ago
    So it seems pretty pointless for me to prepare for the end of the world, since if it happens there won't be anything I need to do. Makes more sense to prepare for the continuation of the world, since then I'd have to actually do something.
SuoDuanDao 7y ago
Because taking the most extreme course of preparation (genetic suicide) does not have as much effect on the end result as staying in the game, accepting one's own imperfection but continuing to try to be a net positive.
- futureastronaut 7y ago
  I don't have a strong opinion either way, but do we really have to call the decision to not have kids "genetic suicide?" I'm not the sole custodian of my genetics, it's not like I have some freak mutation that's going to save the species. We are largely genetically similar.

If statically speaking, preparing for the end is the sanest course of action because it does appear to be the most likely scenario within the next 50 years, why wouldn't it be the right mindset?

brightball 7y ago

Because if it doesn’t happen then what have you gained? If it does happen than what have you lost? It just rings like all of the people claiming “end times” for hundreds of years. But more specifically, is everybody on earth getting the same message? If not...why?

Daishiman 7y ago
> Because if it doesn’t happen then what have you gained? If it does happen than what have you lost? For those of us who don't have a particularly strong desire to have children this is very much a dealbreaker. > It just rings like all of the people claiming “end times” for hundreds of years. The only way that would be the case is if you ignore the evidence that makes the current situation untentable in a way that no other prior instance of history has been.
- brightball 7y ago
  The current situation? We’ve previously had the threat of nuclear war situation and 2 world wars in the last 100 years. With a single scientific advance that would allow rapid carbon capture from the atmosphere, we could be having a totally different conversation.
  - ForHackernews 7y ago
    > With a single scientific advance that would allow rapid carbon capture from the atmosphere ... and reverse the laws of thermodynamics, too! Recapturing atmospheric CO2 means working to transform from a high-entropy state to a lower-entropy state. That's not going to happen for free. So you need to have: 1) A fast efficient carbon-capture mechanism. 2) A way to generate lots and lots of power that doesn't itself produce CO2. You're not describing a "single scientific advance" as much as you're describing dozens or hundreds of major feats of engineering. I'm not saying it couldn't happen, but I would not bet the planet on it.
    - brightball 7y ago
      Nuclear already accomplishes the power requirements though. As far as I can tell it’s more about having a working option and then paying for it. But even if we aren’t betting the planet on it...this is akin to a poker game where all of your money is already in the middle. Folding the hand just means you lose. There is literally nothing to gain by giving up. Nothing.

imgabe 7y ago

How is preparing for the end logical "statistically speaking"? The world has ended 0 times so far. The world has a 100% record of not ending.

ForHackernews 7y ago
This is the anthropic fallacy[0]: if and when society does collapse, you won't be here arguing about it. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropic_principle
- imgabe 7y ago
  So it seems pretty pointless for me to prepare for the end of the world, since if it happens there won't be anything I need to do. Makes more sense to prepare for the continuation of the world, since then I'd have to actually do something.

SuoDuanDao 7y ago

Because taking the most extreme course of preparation (genetic suicide) does not have as much effect on the end result as staying in the game, accepting one's own imperfection but continuing to try to be a net positive.

futureastronaut 7y ago
I don't have a strong opinion either way, but do we really have to call the decision to not have kids "genetic suicide?" I'm not the sole custodian of my genetics, it's not like I have some freak mutation that's going to save the species. We are largely genetically similar.