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I'd say "nervous" captures it best. Or maybe the quip about the US, originally, "doing the right thing after having exhausted all other options". Combustion en

I'd say "nervous" captures it best. Or maybe the quip about the US, originally, "doing the right thing after having exhausted all other options". Combustion engines, and Diesel especially, also require a lot more manpower to assemble. Spiegel, the largest and well-respected magazine, just quoted relative figures of 10 (Diesel):4 (Gasoline): 1 (Electric). So even if German manufacturers happen to survive the transition with market share intact, a lot of jobs are on the line. And that's a big "if". Not only is there a lot of know-how that will become rather worthless. Consumers may well consider electric vehicles a new category, making brand value not transferrable. The silver lining may be that the importance of cars for German industry, while big, is often overstated, especially outside Germany. The true strength of the country is in thousands of engineering SMEs you and I have never heard of, excelling in specialty B2B products. Stuff like pumps and industrial tooling and whatnot.

agumonkey 7y ago
Thanks, very interesting and understandable. That said, fear is rarely the right reason to avoid evolving. Better embrace the change and make your employees expert on electric motors and assembly.
sergiosgc 7y ago
> Consumers may well consider electric vehicles a new category, making brand value not transferrable. I guess this is the reasoning behind Kia's very strong investment in electric cars. They never managed to break the image of European cars having the best engines [1], and look at electric as an opportunity to break the stronghold. The risk for the European auto industry is real, and present in the market. [1] European diesel and gasoline engines are indeed an engineering marvel, so the technological moat is real, but eroding due to a technology phase-out. Interesting times ahead.
- WorldMaker 7y ago
  Kia (and Hyundai their ouroboros relative; apparently they each own minor stakes in each other and which is the parent company depends on which financial winds you prefer) is presumably also feeling a lot of pressure from the home Asian markets. Nissan believed almost ten years ago that EVs were the only path forward and has R&D invested to that point (the Leaf, their Renault portfolio). Toyota also accidentally built themselves a fiefdom with the Prius despite their leadership still thinking Hydrogen might still upset EVs (which looks increasingly unlikely for cars; maybe for other diesel uses), but with the luck that a good Hydrogen drive chain is a good EV drive chain with a different "battery". Plus, all the Chinese EV-only brands trying to disrupt the car industry entirely (BYD, Nio, etc). With BMW and VW both talking about plans to have their entire catalogs electrified as soon as 2023, German manufacturers may finally be feeling the existential crisis at hand and are trying to compete. (It's American manufacturers that are probably the most at risk right now. GM and Ford aren't yet feeling enough pressure from Asian imports nor Tesla. The irony of "dieselgate" helping the US EPA force the hands of European manufacturers more firmly towards EV fleets, but not appearing to make a similar strategic impact on American manufacturers fleets is probably going to be fog thick in the next few years.)
nradov 7y ago
Those numbers don't make sense. It certainly doesn't take 2.5× more labor hours to assemble a diesel drive train then a comparable gasoline one. The difference is really marginal. Some parts are more complex and have to be stronger, but others are simpler.

agumonkey 7y ago

Thanks, very interesting and understandable. That said, fear is rarely the right reason to avoid evolving. Better embrace the change and make your employees expert on electric motors and assembly.

sergiosgc 7y ago

> Consumers may well consider electric vehicles a new category, making brand value not transferrable. I guess this is the reasoning behind Kia's very strong investment in electric cars. They never managed to break the image of European cars having the best engines [1], and look at electric as an opportunity to break the stronghold. The risk for the European auto industry is real, and present in the market. [1] European diesel and gasoline engines are indeed an engineering marvel, so the technological moat is real, but eroding due to a technology phase-out. Interesting times ahead.

WorldMaker 7y ago
Kia (and Hyundai their ouroboros relative; apparently they each own minor stakes in each other and which is the parent company depends on which financial winds you prefer) is presumably also feeling a lot of pressure from the home Asian markets. Nissan believed almost ten years ago that EVs were the only path forward and has R&D invested to that point (the Leaf, their Renault portfolio). Toyota also accidentally built themselves a fiefdom with the Prius despite their leadership still thinking Hydrogen might still upset EVs (which looks increasingly unlikely for cars; maybe for other diesel uses), but with the luck that a good Hydrogen drive chain is a good EV drive chain with a different "battery". Plus, all the Chinese EV-only brands trying to disrupt the car industry entirely (BYD, Nio, etc). With BMW and VW both talking about plans to have their entire catalogs electrified as soon as 2023, German manufacturers may finally be feeling the existential crisis at hand and are trying to compete. (It's American manufacturers that are probably the most at risk right now. GM and Ford aren't yet feeling enough pressure from Asian imports nor Tesla. The irony of "dieselgate" helping the US EPA force the hands of European manufacturers more firmly towards EV fleets, but not appearing to make a similar strategic impact on American manufacturers fleets is probably going to be fog thick in the next few years.)

nradov 7y ago

Those numbers don't make sense. It certainly doesn't take 2.5× more labor hours to assemble a diesel drive train then a comparable gasoline one. The difference is really marginal. Some parts are more complex and have to be stronger, but others are simpler.