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As far as a race goes there's only one other runner currently and they are 1/10th as far along (6 vs 60 satelites) and without a plan to launch as cheaply as Sp
by ravedave5 7y ago
As far as a race goes there's only one other runner currently and they are 1/10th as far along (6 vs 60 satelites) and without a plan to launch as cheaply as SpaceX. Spacex will be the first to have a system and unless it is too expensive or has other operational issues they are going to be hard to catch.
- lukeify 7y agoThose "unless"'s are _kind_ of the point of the article.
- zamadatix 7y agoBut the "unless"'s apply to everyone else 10x more, they just don't make for as good of a headline since "it's hard" has already been talked to death.
- breakyerself 7y agoSpaceX has a huge price advantage on launches so a competitor would have to be able to significantly undercut them on the cost of the hardware just to become competetive.
- woodandsteel 7y agoRight. The article really should have included that.
- new_realist 7y agoSatellite costs, not launch costs, dominate. And then there is Vulcan and other cheap launch competitors coming online.
- Dylan16807 7y ago> Satellite costs, not launch costs, dominate. Starlink is promising well under a million per satellite, and OneWeb is reportedly already at a million. Satellite costs might end up lower than launch costs, and even if they're higher that doesn't seem like they'll dominate.
- SEJeff 7y agoWhich are paper rockets until they actually launch, land, and refly successfully.
- mrep 7y agoThat may be true for heavy ones that are only ever built once but these are light and mass produced. I cannot find the source but I'm pretty sure elon musk said that the rocket costs more to build than all of the satellites on a launch.
- bryanlarsen 7y agoThe expert quoted in the article believes that first mover advantage won't buy SpaceX much. She believes convenience, price and performance are going to be a lot more important in choosing winners.
- wetpaws 7y agoExpert opinions don't cost much.
- elcritch 7y agoAlthough you’re downvoted here, I believe you have a point. This expert doesn’t seem to factor in the likelihood that providing better quality service will be boosted by first mover advantage given the nature of the system. A linked constellation system is still novel and will certainly require trial and error to hone it. SpaceX has a major edge here in being first and having related expertise in a vertically integrated company. Unless they totally botch it they could readily remain a generation ahead of other players for a decade or more just by leveraging extra launch ability. E.g. they can iterate quicker and more often. Given this constellation and phased array antennas are novel combination an expert’s opinion is worth about as much as most here on HN. Also, it’s annoying how the article questions finding a market, as the competition in semi-rural areas is Comcast, charter, Verizon etc if lucky. That’s a pretty low bar IMHO. I hope we get some good competition in this area!
- SEJeff 7y agoElon recently stated the phased array antennas for Starlink will be the most advanced phased array antennas in the world. That's saying something as the AESA radars in the newer jets use phased array radars + antennas.
- stcredzero 7y agoOnce those start being manufactured at scale, maybe we'll have AESA radars available for hobbyist use? Say, aren't Tesla cars supposed to be using radar?
- new_realist 7y agoSpaceX’s launched satellites don’t even have lasers. They’re beta, and some went offline. I’m not sure you can conclude anything at this point.