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As far as I know the opposite is true and emission tests have only gotten stricter. The test cycle has been updated to be more realistic[1] and the standard has

As far as I know the opposite is true and emission tests have only gotten stricter. The test cycle has been updated to be more realistic[1] and the standard has lowered allowed values across the board[2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_Harmonised_Light_Vehicles_Test_Procedure https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Worldwide_Harmonised_Light_Veh... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Em...

DoctorOetker 7y ago
Consider the following quote from your reference [2]: (here "conformity factor" CF is the relative violation, so "0% conformity factor" means at the original limit, "100% conformity factor" means twice the original limit!) >In 2017, the European Union will introduce testing in real-world conditions called Real Driving Emissions, using portable emissions measurement systems in addition to laboratory tests.[24] The actual limits will use 110% (CF=2.1) "conformity factor" (the difference between the laboratory test and real-world conditions) in 2017, and 50% (CF=1.5) in 2021 for NO x ,[25] conformity factor for particles number P being left for further study. Environment organizations criticized the decision as insufficient,[26][27] while ACEA mentions it will be extremely difficult for automobile manufacturers to reach such a limit in such short period of time.[28] In 2015 an ADAC study (ordered by ICCT) of 32 Euro 6 cars showed that few complied with on-road emission limits, and LNT/NOx adsorber cars (with about half the market) had the highest emissions.[29] At the end of this study, ICCT was expecting a 100% conformity factor.[30] EDIT: adding; to me it seems like the regulators knew all along about the defeat mechanisms, and the VW scandal is just the first step: removing plausible deniability of the regulator. Next steps will be when people realise the conformity factor of their car is increasing over time as the laws get stricter? ;) Then people will start seriously questioning the regulators who formally accept such nomenclature!
- pedrocr 7y ago
  What you are describing is yet another way to make the testing stricter. Legally optimizing for the driving cycle will always be possible so adding an extra measurement that compares the test cycle with some real world driving is yet another hurdle to pass. You are somehow assuming that the conformity factor will increase over time but the quote says that it should go down from 2.1x to 1.5x, once again making the test even stricter. I don't see any evidence that they "knew all along" but this discussion is very common. We've seen it as well with the financial crisis. A set of people get discovered committing fraud and yet the discussion quickly shifts to how the regulators didn't do enough to stop it. Regulators are often inept and regulatory capture does exist. But if regulators were asleep or even worse complicit does not in any way excuse VW. In fact the complete opposite is true. If the industry somehow subverted regulation then that's an additional crime and not in any way a reason to throw up our hands and say "everyone was doing it, the regulators knew all along, that's life".
  - DoctorOetker 7y ago
    To rephrase my complaint: "conformity factor" should be more appropriately named "Excess Factor". Consider a car just barely passing a CF 2.1 NOx test in 2017, then it obviously won't pass the stricter CF 1.5 NOx test in 2021. even though the NOx emissions limit will be identical!: >European emission standards for passenger cars (Category M)*, g/km Tier Date (Type Approval) Date (First Registration) CO THC NMHC NO x HC+NO x PM PN [#/km] Diesel Euro 6c - September 2018 0.50 - - 0.080 0.170 0.0045 6×1011 Euro 6d-Temp September 2017 September 2019 0.50 - - 0.080 0.170 0.0045 6×1011 Euro 6d January 2020 January 2021 0.50 - - 0.080 0.170 0.0045 6×1011 As the emissions standard becomes stricter, then that same car would only pass increasing Excess Factors A 2017 NOx Excess Factor currently named "110% conformity factor CF" of 2.1 would result in a "50% conformity factor" car in 2021, even though the emission limits and the car are identical... does that make sense to the reader who wasn't pointed out the inversely defined terminology? It reminds me of "symbolic euro" which does not mean a euro as a symbolic gesture at all, it means a sum of money representing however high the cost will turn out to be, say in damages,...

DoctorOetker 7y ago

Consider the following quote from your reference [2]: (here "conformity factor" CF is the relative violation, so "0% conformity factor" means at the original limit, "100% conformity factor" means twice the original limit!) >In 2017, the European Union will introduce testing in real-world conditions called Real Driving Emissions, using portable emissions measurement systems in addition to laboratory tests.[24] The actual limits will use 110% (CF=2.1) "conformity factor" (the difference between the laboratory test and real-world conditions) in 2017, and 50% (CF=1.5) in 2021 for NO x ,[25] conformity factor for particles number P being left for further study. Environment organizations criticized the decision as insufficient,[26][27] while ACEA mentions it will be extremely difficult for automobile manufacturers to reach such a limit in such short period of time.[28] In 2015 an ADAC study (ordered by ICCT) of 32 Euro 6 cars showed that few complied with on-road emission limits, and LNT/NOx adsorber cars (with about half the market) had the highest emissions.[29] At the end of this study, ICCT was expecting a 100% conformity factor.[30] EDIT: adding; to me it seems like the regulators knew all along about the defeat mechanisms, and the VW scandal is just the first step: removing plausible deniability of the regulator. Next steps will be when people realise the conformity factor of their car is increasing over time as the laws get stricter? ;) Then people will start seriously questioning the regulators who formally accept such nomenclature!

pedrocr 7y ago
What you are describing is yet another way to make the testing stricter. Legally optimizing for the driving cycle will always be possible so adding an extra measurement that compares the test cycle with some real world driving is yet another hurdle to pass. You are somehow assuming that the conformity factor will increase over time but the quote says that it should go down from 2.1x to 1.5x, once again making the test even stricter. I don't see any evidence that they "knew all along" but this discussion is very common. We've seen it as well with the financial crisis. A set of people get discovered committing fraud and yet the discussion quickly shifts to how the regulators didn't do enough to stop it. Regulators are often inept and regulatory capture does exist. But if regulators were asleep or even worse complicit does not in any way excuse VW. In fact the complete opposite is true. If the industry somehow subverted regulation then that's an additional crime and not in any way a reason to throw up our hands and say "everyone was doing it, the regulators knew all along, that's life".
- DoctorOetker 7y ago
  To rephrase my complaint: "conformity factor" should be more appropriately named "Excess Factor". Consider a car just barely passing a CF 2.1 NOx test in 2017, then it obviously won't pass the stricter CF 1.5 NOx test in 2021. even though the NOx emissions limit will be identical!: >European emission standards for passenger cars (Category M)*, g/km Tier Date (Type Approval) Date (First Registration) CO THC NMHC NO x HC+NO x PM PN [#/km] Diesel Euro 6c - September 2018 0.50 - - 0.080 0.170 0.0045 6×1011 Euro 6d-Temp September 2017 September 2019 0.50 - - 0.080 0.170 0.0045 6×1011 Euro 6d January 2020 January 2021 0.50 - - 0.080 0.170 0.0045 6×1011 As the emissions standard becomes stricter, then that same car would only pass increasing Excess Factors A 2017 NOx Excess Factor currently named "110% conformity factor CF" of 2.1 would result in a "50% conformity factor" car in 2021, even though the emission limits and the car are identical... does that make sense to the reader who wasn't pointed out the inversely defined terminology? It reminds me of "symbolic euro" which does not mean a euro as a symbolic gesture at all, it means a sum of money representing however high the cost will turn out to be, say in damages,...