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To be honest, the real protests should begin as key organizers magically "disappear" over the next few months. I can only imagine the amount of intelligence Be

To be honest, the real protests should begin as key organizers magically "disappear" over the next few months. I can only imagine the amount of intelligence Beijing has collected over these last few days and what sort of operations they have in mind. The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went off the table when Xi installed himself as leader for life.)
- csomar 7y ago
  > Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong It is. But re-integration remains a goal for Beijing. If not realistically, then at least politically. The more aggressive Xi has been with Hong Kong, the more Taiwan has stiffened. Rolling tanks into Hong Kong would give Taiwan legitimate cover for being supplied weapons. For a variety of reasons, China doesn’t want that. That, in turn, gives the protesters leverage.
    - petre 7y ago
      Taiwan is supplied with weapons. US and Taiwanese gov't officials take Xi's threats quite seriously. No need for legitimate cover. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-taiwan-arms-sale.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-taiwan-...
  - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
    > From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. Huh? No, it doesn't. It has military bases in nearby Okinawa, however. I'm sure the USA setting up a military base in Taiwan would really piss China off, and it would also be not very useful since the Ryukyu Islands are right next door anyways. The USA simply provides Taiwan with weapons, and occasionally meanders an aircraft carrier around (or used to, it doesn't do that much anymore).
    - csomar 7y ago
      > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_Command https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_C... Taiwan existed because of the US. Basically, the other side of the civil war got defeated and come hiding in Taiwan behind US military. Otherwise, it'd have been invaded by China since. It seems currently that there is no official military presence. However, there is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances I think it's enough to deter China from attacking Taiwan.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - lsc36 7y ago
        This was only active until 1979; the US currently has no military presence in Taiwan.
      - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
        Taiwan exists because Mao decided to spend all his international capital on a Korean invasion rather than a Taiwan one, making the USA care about Taiwan again. In an alternate dimension where Mao held back, we would have had a unified Korea and China, strange.
- DeonPenny 7y ago
  CCP military is already in the city. They have been building bases in the city since before 2014
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > CCP military is already in the city Rolling in the military as in deploying it against peaceful protesters. A second Tiananmen Square. They have the forces but are constrained in projecting them.
  - phyalow 7y ago
    Indeed, the PLA's main garrison (ex. British Army) sits directly in front of Merrill Lynch's Hong Kong Tower (BAML), the irony is not lost on Hong Kongers for sure.
- verttii 7y ago
  It's highly unlikely that any country would impose sanctions on China for such measures. Hell, we don't even have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan anywhere because everyone fears losing the chance to do business with China.
  - wbl 7y ago
    We still sanction China for Tianmen square.
    - OrgNet 7y ago
      > But, unfortunately, the sanctions have rarely been enforced and U.S. companies skirt the sanctions with impunity. In 2011, Cisco sold over 500,000 cameras to the city of Chongqing specifically to watch its citizens.
NeedMoreTea 7y ago
Already in the plan by the sound of things, with the reports of police arresting the injured in hospital, and being given back door access to medical records...

JumpCrisscross 7y ago

> The loss of face that they have suffered from this will not stand Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. The protesters are rationally responding to a ham-fisted (yet weak) authoritarian move by Beijing. (The right move for Beijing is retreat. But that option went off the table when Xi installed himself as leader for life.)

csomar 7y ago
> Beijing has limited force projection options. Rolling in the military means inviting international sanctions and possibly military aid, if not for Hong Kong then almost certainly for Taiwan. From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. It'd be hard to invade the country without conflict with such a base. And even a small incident can spiral into a war with China. So no, I think Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > Taiwan situation is way different than Hong Kong It is. But re-integration remains a goal for Beijing. If not realistically, then at least politically. The more aggressive Xi has been with Hong Kong, the more Taiwan has stiffened. Rolling tanks into Hong Kong would give Taiwan legitimate cover for being supplied weapons. For a variety of reasons, China doesn’t want that. That, in turn, gives the protesters leverage.
  - petre 7y ago
    Taiwan is supplied with weapons. US and Taiwanese gov't officials take Xi's threats quite seriously. No need for legitimate cover. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-taiwan-arms-sale.html https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/06/us/politics/trump-taiwan-...
- seanmcdirmid 7y ago
  > From my limited knowledge, the US has a military base in Taiwan. Huh? No, it doesn't. It has military bases in nearby Okinawa, however. I'm sure the USA setting up a military base in Taiwan would really piss China off, and it would also be not very useful since the Ryukyu Islands are right next door anyways. The USA simply provides Taiwan with weapons, and occasionally meanders an aircraft carrier around (or used to, it doesn't do that much anymore).
  - csomar 7y ago
    > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_Command https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Taiwan_Defense_C... Taiwan existed because of the US. Basically, the other side of the civil war got defeated and come hiding in Taiwan behind US military. Otherwise, it'd have been invaded by China since. It seems currently that there is no official military presence. However, there is this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Assurances I think it's enough to deter China from attacking Taiwan.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - lsc36 7y ago
      This was only active until 1979; the US currently has no military presence in Taiwan.
    - seanmcdirmid 7y ago
      Taiwan exists because Mao decided to spend all his international capital on a Korean invasion rather than a Taiwan one, making the USA care about Taiwan again. In an alternate dimension where Mao held back, we would have had a unified Korea and China, strange.
DeonPenny 7y ago
CCP military is already in the city. They have been building bases in the city since before 2014
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > CCP military is already in the city Rolling in the military as in deploying it against peaceful protesters. A second Tiananmen Square. They have the forces but are constrained in projecting them.
- phyalow 7y ago
  Indeed, the PLA's main garrison (ex. British Army) sits directly in front of Merrill Lynch's Hong Kong Tower (BAML), the irony is not lost on Hong Kongers for sure.
verttii 7y ago
It's highly unlikely that any country would impose sanctions on China for such measures. Hell, we don't even have formal diplomatic relations with Taiwan anywhere because everyone fears losing the chance to do business with China.
- wbl 7y ago
  We still sanction China for Tianmen square.
  - OrgNet 7y ago
    > But, unfortunately, the sanctions have rarely been enforced and U.S. companies skirt the sanctions with impunity. In 2011, Cisco sold over 500,000 cameras to the city of Chongqing specifically to watch its citizens.

NeedMoreTea 7y ago

Already in the plan by the sound of things, with the reports of police arresting the injured in hospital, and being given back door access to medical records...