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> The decoupling is driven by a belief by some in the American government that they can somehow blunt the economic development of China and maintain American ge

> The decoupling is driven by a belief by some in the American government that they can somehow blunt the economic development of China and maintain American geopolitical hegemony into the foreseeable future. You don't come out and say it, but your implication is that this is not possible. It is not obvious to me that that is the case. 1. China is a low trust country. There is a deep culture of fraud and deceit. This will be a difficult thing to change, which I believe is a precondition to being a tier 1 super power. 2. People like to extend trends into the indefinite future, but macroeconomics is superstition at best. The stagnation of Japan caught just about everyone by surprise. I think there's at least a 30% chance this happens to China, based on some of the reports I've seen coming about of China related to debt and real estate. I think there is a good chance for China to reach tier 1 status, but it doesn't seem like a foregone conclusion to me. Given this level of uncertainty, it seems reasonable that some powerful Americans might not want the US to go gentle into that good night.

echaozh 7y ago
> China is a low trust country. There is a deep culture of fraud and deceit. Is it racism? China is low trust. China cannot innovate. What makes you think so?
- Theodores 7y ago
  Trust is a two way street, you have to be willing to trust to find trust. HN is not the forum for these types of discussions, there is a moral panic going on though and even the better educated are not immune to it. The same tropes get recycled until things we would never say about most countries are able to be said without supporting facts. As per the comment guidelines some things just need to be flagged rather than flame-discussed. We went through the same phases with Japan, Korea and plenty other places. It is best to see the funny side of it and also tune in to the other side of the story.
  - coldtea 7y ago
    >HN is not the forum for these types of discussions, there is a moral panic going on though and even the better educated are not immune to it. It could even be said that the better educated have it worse. At least the less educated are fed some crappy fake news that are easy enough to see through. The better educated are convinced they know the truth because they read fluff pieces in "trusted" newspapers and magazines (e.g. NYT, The Economist) promoting the financial and corporate interests du jour. It's easier to trust this "high end" version of fake news (where the lies are told with nuance, and the pundits have been shown to be worse in predictions than random coin tosses).
- tonyedgecombe 7y ago
  https://www.transparency.org/country/CHN https://www.transparency.org/country/CHN
  - coldtea 7y ago
    A, the kind of "independent" organizations western interests set up to pat themselves on the back?
    - eastendguy 7y ago
      Taiwanese and Hongkongers agree & enjoy their freedom. This "Western..." thing is something that is used often in Chinese PRC propaganda, to discredit free press and the rule of law as "Western" ideas. Yet, China has no problems following the "Western" idea of communism ;-)
      - coldtea 7y ago
        >Yet, China has no problems following the "Western" idea of communism ;-) Well, I couldn't care less what China does. Not to mention that their "idea of communism" has little to do with the indeed western ideas of Marx. As for the "Taiwanese and Hongkongers", those are not the best examples of freedom one could find. One was a dictatorship up until the 90s (under martial law and everything), and the other was under British occupation (with full blown riots against that rule during the 60s and 70s)...
- ovi256 7y ago
  Here's a study, "The Blue Book of Social Mentality", sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, replicating this finding that China is a low-trust society: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-02/18/content_16230755.htm http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-02/18/content_162307... http://www.ssapchina.com/ssapzx/c_00000009000200010007/ http://www.ssapchina.com/ssapzx/c_00000009000200010007/
cm2187 7y ago
I think your point 2 is very true. And there are other things to worry about China: the prevalence of corruption, an aging population. I think most of the growth from the 90s to 2008 was generated by the continuous flow of western companies outsourcing to China, investing in the economy and opening factories. That flow dried in 2008 because anything there was to outsource has been moved already and if anything automation will rather repatriate production. Then to compensate that and the collapse in global trade caused with the financial crisis, China embarked in a massive debt bubble. In less than 10 years the size of Chinese banks balance sheets went from nowhere to become the largest in the world, well over US giant banks. This fueled a real estate bubble. But this debt bubble is coming to an end, and what will fuel the growth for the next 15 years? The past 30 years are not reproducible.
coldtea 7y ago
>1. China is a low trust country. There is a deep culture of fraud and deceit. This will be a difficult thing to change, which I believe is a precondition to being a tier 1 super power. That's a low grade racism. China has issues, but is the #1 global manufacturer, and the biggest global companies (from Apple and BMW to Dell and Armani) rely on it for their production. That takes a lot of trust, not "fraud and deceit". Sure there's "fraud and deceit" from small-timers, but then again the US cities also used to be full of small time crooks and hustlers in the better part of the 20th century, as people were getting out of poverty. In the case of China it's internal, not foreign immigrants, but the dynamics are the same. >2. People like to extend trends into the indefinite future, but macroeconomics is superstition at best. Well, the same argument could be said for the hegemony of the USA. Why would it extend to the "indefinite future" (especially since trends show the opposite)?
- marvin 7y ago
  "A low trust country" is maybe not the most elegant way of phrasing it. But China does not have the rule of law and long-term stability in politics, policies and enforcing contractual agreements, established historically or by implication, to nearly the same degree as most Western countries. The trend of rich Chinese investing in property in the West demonstrates that Chinese citizens are also well aware of this, and are hedging their bets. This is an often underappreciated point regarding the industrial and innovative ability of Western society. It remains to be seen whether it's a precondition to being the most powerful nation in the world in terms of technological development and industrial capability. (In the same way as the question of democracy/freedom of speech in general being such a precondition).
  - gingabriska 7y ago
    >The trend of rich Chinese investing in property in the West demonstrates that Chinese citizens are also well aware of this, and are hedging their bets. Or they might be simply diversifying because they've too much? It was not uncommon for Americans back in 80s to have a Holliday home in Europe for same reason. We never say Apple manufacturing in China implies that Apple do not trust American government?
DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
> People like to extend trends into the indefinite future, but macroeconomics is superstition at best. The stagnation of Japan caught just about everyone by surprise. Japan stagnated after reaching approximate parity with the US in GDP/capita. China only has to reach one quarter the productivity of the United States in order to surpass the US in nominal GDP. If China reaches half the productivity of the US, its economy will be twice as large as that of the US. These are relatively low bars. > Given this level of uncertainty, it seems reasonable that some powerful Americans might not want the US to go gentle into that good night. I wouldn't call it "reasonable," but I might call it "predictable." A policy of trying to sabotage China's economic development would put the US and China on a definite collision course, and I don't want to see what the world looks like after that. The most concerning aspect of this is the apparent widespread support for this course of action among both Democrats and Republicans. A lot of people don't know what they're careening into.

echaozh 7y ago

> China is a low trust country. There is a deep culture of fraud and deceit. Is it racism? China is low trust. China cannot innovate. What makes you think so?

Theodores 7y ago
Trust is a two way street, you have to be willing to trust to find trust. HN is not the forum for these types of discussions, there is a moral panic going on though and even the better educated are not immune to it. The same tropes get recycled until things we would never say about most countries are able to be said without supporting facts. As per the comment guidelines some things just need to be flagged rather than flame-discussed. We went through the same phases with Japan, Korea and plenty other places. It is best to see the funny side of it and also tune in to the other side of the story.
- coldtea 7y ago
  >HN is not the forum for these types of discussions, there is a moral panic going on though and even the better educated are not immune to it. It could even be said that the better educated have it worse. At least the less educated are fed some crappy fake news that are easy enough to see through. The better educated are convinced they know the truth because they read fluff pieces in "trusted" newspapers and magazines (e.g. NYT, The Economist) promoting the financial and corporate interests du jour. It's easier to trust this "high end" version of fake news (where the lies are told with nuance, and the pundits have been shown to be worse in predictions than random coin tosses).
tonyedgecombe 7y ago
https://www.transparency.org/country/CHN https://www.transparency.org/country/CHN
- coldtea 7y ago
  A, the kind of "independent" organizations western interests set up to pat themselves on the back?
  - eastendguy 7y ago
    Taiwanese and Hongkongers agree & enjoy their freedom. This "Western..." thing is something that is used often in Chinese PRC propaganda, to discredit free press and the rule of law as "Western" ideas. Yet, China has no problems following the "Western" idea of communism ;-)
    - coldtea 7y ago
      >Yet, China has no problems following the "Western" idea of communism ;-) Well, I couldn't care less what China does. Not to mention that their "idea of communism" has little to do with the indeed western ideas of Marx. As for the "Taiwanese and Hongkongers", those are not the best examples of freedom one could find. One was a dictatorship up until the 90s (under martial law and everything), and the other was under British occupation (with full blown riots against that rule during the 60s and 70s)...
ovi256 7y ago
Here's a study, "The Blue Book of Social Mentality", sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, replicating this finding that China is a low-trust society: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-02/18/content_16230755.htm http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2013-02/18/content_162307... http://www.ssapchina.com/ssapzx/c_00000009000200010007/ http://www.ssapchina.com/ssapzx/c_00000009000200010007/

cm2187 7y ago

I think your point 2 is very true. And there are other things to worry about China: the prevalence of corruption, an aging population. I think most of the growth from the 90s to 2008 was generated by the continuous flow of western companies outsourcing to China, investing in the economy and opening factories. That flow dried in 2008 because anything there was to outsource has been moved already and if anything automation will rather repatriate production. Then to compensate that and the collapse in global trade caused with the financial crisis, China embarked in a massive debt bubble. In less than 10 years the size of Chinese banks balance sheets went from nowhere to become the largest in the world, well over US giant banks. This fueled a real estate bubble. But this debt bubble is coming to an end, and what will fuel the growth for the next 15 years? The past 30 years are not reproducible.

coldtea 7y ago

>1. China is a low trust country. There is a deep culture of fraud and deceit. This will be a difficult thing to change, which I believe is a precondition to being a tier 1 super power. That's a low grade racism. China has issues, but is the #1 global manufacturer, and the biggest global companies (from Apple and BMW to Dell and Armani) rely on it for their production. That takes a lot of trust, not "fraud and deceit". Sure there's "fraud and deceit" from small-timers, but then again the US cities also used to be full of small time crooks and hustlers in the better part of the 20th century, as people were getting out of poverty. In the case of China it's internal, not foreign immigrants, but the dynamics are the same. >2. People like to extend trends into the indefinite future, but macroeconomics is superstition at best. Well, the same argument could be said for the hegemony of the USA. Why would it extend to the "indefinite future" (especially since trends show the opposite)?

marvin 7y ago
"A low trust country" is maybe not the most elegant way of phrasing it. But China does not have the rule of law and long-term stability in politics, policies and enforcing contractual agreements, established historically or by implication, to nearly the same degree as most Western countries. The trend of rich Chinese investing in property in the West demonstrates that Chinese citizens are also well aware of this, and are hedging their bets. This is an often underappreciated point regarding the industrial and innovative ability of Western society. It remains to be seen whether it's a precondition to being the most powerful nation in the world in terms of technological development and industrial capability. (In the same way as the question of democracy/freedom of speech in general being such a precondition).
- gingabriska 7y ago
  >The trend of rich Chinese investing in property in the West demonstrates that Chinese citizens are also well aware of this, and are hedging their bets. Or they might be simply diversifying because they've too much? It was not uncommon for Americans back in 80s to have a Holliday home in Europe for same reason. We never say Apple manufacturing in China implies that Apple do not trust American government?

DiogenesKynikos 7y ago

> People like to extend trends into the indefinite future, but macroeconomics is superstition at best. The stagnation of Japan caught just about everyone by surprise. Japan stagnated after reaching approximate parity with the US in GDP/capita. China only has to reach one quarter the productivity of the United States in order to surpass the US in nominal GDP. If China reaches half the productivity of the US, its economy will be twice as large as that of the US. These are relatively low bars. > Given this level of uncertainty, it seems reasonable that some powerful Americans might not want the US to go gentle into that good night. I wouldn't call it "reasonable," but I might call it "predictable." A policy of trying to sabotage China's economic development would put the US and China on a definite collision course, and I don't want to see what the world looks like after that. The most concerning aspect of this is the apparent widespread support for this course of action among both Democrats and Republicans. A lot of people don't know what they're careening into.