10 ms·

Puerto Rico energy plan introduces MiniGrids to avoid repeat of Hurricane Maria

207 points by howard941 7y ago

perfunctory 7y ago
I remember reading some study of hedge fund managers that concluded that despite having access to the same market information manager's behavior differed based on their personal experience. More specifically, managers who got burnt by a bubble burst were more risk averse. I wonder how many nations will follow Puerto Rico's example before they experience a devastating storm first.
DigitalVerse 7y ago
It's a little depressing how long it takes to complete projects like this, but encouraging that they're even trying. So... I guess I feel neutral about this on the balance. Anyone wanna take bets on how delayed and how much over budget they'll be?
- rbritton 7y ago
  The corruption won't help. [0] [0]: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=puerto+rico+corruption+from+hurricane+maria&t=osx&ia=web https://duckduckgo.com/?q=puerto+rico+corruption+from+hurric...
- JackFr 7y ago
  Kevin Williamson writing about tunnel repairs in NYC https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/l-train-shutdown-repairs-what-took-long/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/l-train-shutdown-repai... "There was a terrible storm in 2012 that damaged the tunnel; repairs beginning in 2019 will shut down L Train service for a year and a half, etc. What strikes me as remarkable is that none of these accounts contains any half-serious attempt to explain to the curious reader such as myself why in the name of all that is good and holy it is taking all these years to get from Hurricane Sandy to Hurricane Sandy repairs. Assuming those repairs are done on schedule nearly nine years will have passed between Sandy and the completion of storm repairs. That’s twice as long as it took the United States to defeat the Axis powers, twice as long as the Civil War, longer than the time that elapsed between John Kennedy’s “We choose to go to the moon” speech and landing Americans on the moon."
  - jandrese 7y ago
    It should be noted that it only took 8 years for the line to be built in the first place.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    This is what could be like: https://inhabitat.com/japanese-workers-take-just-6-days-to-fix-earthquake-shattered-road/ https://inhabitat.com/japanese-workers-take-just-6-days-to-f... The side-by-side picture is stunning.
    - scottlamb 7y ago
      Americans can pull off that kind of fast repair, too: https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2018/12/07/an-earthquake-created-highway-hellscape-alaska-days-later-road-reopened-good-new/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7ae5cf325d5b https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2018/12/07/an-... The Washington Post article hints at some of the differences between their repair and more permanent work: > Alaska DOT spokeswoman Shannon McCarthy was quick to emphasize that this was emergency repair work and not a regular transportation project. > The latter requires permitting, survey operations, geotechnical work and a host of other prerequisites — and those finished roadways are designed to last, say, 20 years, she said. > “All of those things take a lot of time,” McCarthy told The Washington Post. “This is not that kind of project. This is a project to restore essential travel.” > While the repaired road is safe for drivers, it will require additional work after the spring arrives, she added.
  - mstade 7y ago
    > That’s twice as long as it took the United States to defeat the Axis powers, twice as long as the Civil War, longer than the time that elapsed between John Kennedy’s “We choose to go to the moon” speech and landing Americans on the moon." Implying the United States defeated the axis powers on their own is a bit rich – don't you think? Disregarding the revisionism of your comment, this seems to be a common argument in discussions like this and I wonder why? Isn't it fairly obvious that those ambitious undertakings were either due to significant political will or being forced by danger of death, whereas repairing a subway most probably carries none of that weight? So those responsible must fight tooth and nail to convince the powers that be of the necessity of the work, probably end up being underfunded anyhow, and of course all this requires the responsible (political) parties care enough in the first place. It seems like a pretty unreasonable argument to me, but maybe I'm missing the point.
- macspoofing 7y ago
  >It's a little depressing how long it takes to complete projects like this What if this is because those kinds of projects aren't a great solution and yet we're constantly trying to hamfist them in because it 'feels' right. If it was easy and cheap we would have switched long time ago. Solar and wind are expensive, and they stress the infrastructure because of their inherent intermittency. Battery deployments are also expensive to deploy and to maintain (Li batteries will degrade, but then so will wind turbines and solar panels) and no battery project can bridge the gap in the daily and seasonal fluctuations of power output from solar and wind. You end up needing to burn fossil fuels to compensate. You'll burn either natural gas, or coal, or some sort of bio-fuel or garbage or ... whatever else, but you'll burn something. Hydro, geothermal and nuclear are pretty much the only proven power generation sources that can provide city-scale power without fossil fuels - and we're pretty much out of rivers to dam and geysers to develop. And since nobody likes nuclear anymore we're left with no actual solution to carbon emissions. But hey, Green New Deal is a great way to feel like you're doing something!! >Anyone wanna take bets on how delayed and how much over budget they'll be? Sure. I'll take that bet. It will be a disaster. I also don't believe that they will ever deploy 920 MW of battery storage - which would be by far the biggest battery deployment in the world. And if they do, it won't be worth it.
  - loudmax 7y ago
    > Sure. I'll take that bet. It will be a disaster. I understand the "bet" here is figurative, but it's pretty sad to bet on the misery of others. We should have realistic expectations for how this project is likely to work out, but we shouldn't give into cynicism before the project has even gotten started. You'll probably end up proven right, but in this instance, I hope you're wrong. You should hope you're wrong too.
    - macspoofing 7y ago
      I take your point. Needless to say, that wasn't my intention.
- dghughes 7y ago
  Would that not be the Jones Act not so much Puerto Rico? Tesla wouldn't be affected by it but any other project that wasn't US-based would be. I find it amazing such archaic thing as the Jones Act exists. It's like a forgotten laws you sometimes see mocked in newspapers.
hackeraccount 7y ago
Why try a different solution? Why not just rebuild the existing grid more robustly so it can withstand damage better? I'm not saying this wouldn't work but changes in kind are generally riskier then changes in degree.
- maliker 7y ago
  My guess is Siemens is going for it because if you can get the load/generation balancing right, it costs much less than hardening. Might also be more resilient. Only way to fully harden these systems is underground them at 10 (100?) times the cost. There's also probably some research funding provided by DOE for this because it's a new approach. And if it works, it would be beneficial in tons of other places.
  - noahl 7y ago
    Also worth noting that even if you put them underground, you could flood your tunnels, or have an earthquake, or a giant rabid mole attack, etc... I don't read your comment as ignoring this, but I want to point out for everyone that reliability always has tradeoffs about what events you want to be able to handle and how much preparation you want to do / pay someone to do for you.
    - namibj 7y ago
      Our (german) underground cables are waterproof and bite-proof, the latter to varying degrees. Earthquakes are an issue, but iirc they only tend to require a few splices, not a new cable.
- durkie 7y ago
  the energy mix of electric grids everywhere is changing rapidly to include more renewable technologies, and especially so on islands. puerto rico's grid was in quite bad shape, but it was also originally designed around importing most of its fuel and operating a single (or few) large generator supplying the island. this setup created concentrated points of failure in the event of a natural disaster and also now makes little economic sense given recent advancements in PV and battery technology.
SEJeff 7y ago
Tesla has been working with Puerto Rico quite a bit on this exact thing: https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects-puerto-rico-elon-musk/ https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects... https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/tesla-powerwall-powerpack-puerto-rico-blackout-elon-musk/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/tesla-powerwall-powerpack-pue...
- xkjkls 7y ago
  Have they actually made any progress though? This seems like they just had a bunch of PR statements and empty promises.
  - toomuchtodo 7y ago
    https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/25/560045944/tesla-turns-power-back-on-at-childrens-hospital-in-puerto-rico https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/25/560045944... https://futurism.com/tesla-announced-six-new-projects-restore-power-puerto-rico https://futurism.com/tesla-announced-six-new-projects-restor... > A lack of energy resources can have dire health implications, so Tesla will first deploy battery systems at the most critical locations. These include a sewer treatment plant, the Arcadia water pumping station, the Ciudad Dorada elderly community, the Susan Centeno hospital, and the Boys and Girls Club of Vieques. Doesn't sound like empty promises.
    - bduerst 7y ago
      Only a hospital in San Juan received a solar panel deployment. The quote you cited is more promises.
      - toomuchtodo 7y ago
        Citation please.
        ancientworldnow 7y ago
zaroth 7y ago
Hopefully they were buying some on the hundreds of Sunny Island MicroGrids being auctioned the last two days from the liquidation of DC Solar! I was this | ... (insert hundreds of more dots here) ... | close to convincing my wife we should buy a lot of 90 - 275W solar panels (several of those lots sold for ~$4k). The 25kWh 48v batteries look pretty awesome too, but where the heck I am going to put 2,000lbs of battery?! EDIT: Puerto Rico is installing MiniGrids, which are an order of magnitude or two larger than the MicroGrids powered by the Sunny Islands, but anyway... https://cagp.industrialbid.com/m/view-auctions/catalog/id/3850/ https://cagp.industrialbid.com/m/view-auctions/catalog/id/38...
- SenorSourdough 7y ago
  From the article, it sounds like they will be using some microgrids as well in areas where geography would hinder recovery after disasters.
- jgamman 7y ago
  hate me if you want but i think we should call these milli-grids if they are 2-3 orders of magnitude bigger than a micro-grid... i admit there will be some marketing issues.
g_sch 7y ago
This is certainly a bold plan. I wonder (doubt, even) if PREPA will be able to execute it. Segmenting the grid is going to introduce a lot of trade-offs. Smaller segments means that dips and spikes in load are going to create greater differences in frequency, and as such require faster demand response to create the same level of frequency regulation as a larger grid. Renewables such as solar and wind are already not known for being particularly friendly to grid operations as their output can vary quickly and unpredictably. On a smaller grid, these variances are going to be magnified. They also can't be used for demand response by themselves - you can't tell the sun to start shining on demand. Batteries can effectively smooth the load by providing operating reserve, but the proposed 940 MW of battery capacity (I couldn't figure out from the original report [0] how much MWh storage they are proposing -- there seem to be some numbers missing) is significantly larger than any other battery-based grid energy storage plan that I'm aware of. I hope they can pull off this plan, and they are able to make it work for the people of PR as well. [0] https://drive.google.com/open?id=1oupTRdHXRHzc6UuKUdmFp9eWKPR0CZd5 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1oupTRdHXRHzc6UuKUdmFp9eWKP...
- duxup 7y ago
  >I wonder (doubt, even) if PREPA will be able to execute it. Sadly this might say a lot more about PREPA than anything else.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - g_sch 7y ago
    After looking it up, I discovered PREPA was privatized shortly after Hurricane Maria. So perhaps they have new sources of capital. Though I'm still not sure (or at least not confident) that anyone with a profit motive is going to invest heavily in Puerto Rico's grid.
    - Vivtek 7y ago
      There was talk that Duke Energy was interested in a purchase. I haven't heard anything recently.
malchow 7y ago
Any devs interested in this space -- we have a company working on this and hiring; please ping me. Power networks are currently dumb and dataless. This will change!
- worstestes 7y ago
  where can I learn more?
- mastry 7y ago
  Interesting. I spent several years at a small regional power company where we did some initial work on smart meters. That was probably 10 years ago and from what I understand they're still trying to get it all working on a large scale. Are you referring to something more than smart meters?
  - malchow 7y ago
    Yep -- I'm talking about ARM Cortex equipped internet connected boxes -- think residential solar, 5G rollout, small cells -- all on a genuine internet of power.
    - cco 7y ago
      One question, why?
      - malchow 7y ago
        Power generators in the future are: 1) more numerous, 2) lower output, 3) more intermittent, 4) more democratized. Therefore communication is more important than it was in the 20th century monolithic model.
- hobolord 7y ago
  quite interested to hear more, already doing work in this space
- g_sch 7y ago

207 points by howard941 7y ago

I remember reading some study of hedge fund managers that concluded that despite having access to the same market information manager's behavior differed based on their personal experience. More specifically, managers who got burnt by a bubble burst were more risk averse. I wonder how many nations will follow Puerto Rico's example before they experience a devastating storm first.

DigitalVerse 7y ago

It's a little depressing how long it takes to complete projects like this, but encouraging that they're even trying. So... I guess I feel neutral about this on the balance. Anyone wanna take bets on how delayed and how much over budget they'll be?

rbritton 7y ago
The corruption won't help. [0] [0]: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=puerto+rico+corruption+from+hurricane+maria&t=osx&ia=web https://duckduckgo.com/?q=puerto+rico+corruption+from+hurric...
JackFr 7y ago
Kevin Williamson writing about tunnel repairs in NYC https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/l-train-shutdown-repairs-what-took-long/ https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/l-train-shutdown-repai... "There was a terrible storm in 2012 that damaged the tunnel; repairs beginning in 2019 will shut down L Train service for a year and a half, etc. What strikes me as remarkable is that none of these accounts contains any half-serious attempt to explain to the curious reader such as myself why in the name of all that is good and holy it is taking all these years to get from Hurricane Sandy to Hurricane Sandy repairs. Assuming those repairs are done on schedule nearly nine years will have passed between Sandy and the completion of storm repairs. That’s twice as long as it took the United States to defeat the Axis powers, twice as long as the Civil War, longer than the time that elapsed between John Kennedy’s “We choose to go to the moon” speech and landing Americans on the moon."
- jandrese 7y ago
  It should be noted that it only took 8 years for the line to be built in the first place.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  This is what could be like: https://inhabitat.com/japanese-workers-take-just-6-days-to-fix-earthquake-shattered-road/ https://inhabitat.com/japanese-workers-take-just-6-days-to-f... The side-by-side picture is stunning.
  - scottlamb 7y ago
    Americans can pull off that kind of fast repair, too: https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2018/12/07/an-earthquake-created-highway-hellscape-alaska-days-later-road-reopened-good-new/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.7ae5cf325d5b https://www.washingtonpost.com/transportation/2018/12/07/an-... The Washington Post article hints at some of the differences between their repair and more permanent work: > Alaska DOT spokeswoman Shannon McCarthy was quick to emphasize that this was emergency repair work and not a regular transportation project. > The latter requires permitting, survey operations, geotechnical work and a host of other prerequisites — and those finished roadways are designed to last, say, 20 years, she said. > “All of those things take a lot of time,” McCarthy told The Washington Post. “This is not that kind of project. This is a project to restore essential travel.” > While the repaired road is safe for drivers, it will require additional work after the spring arrives, she added.
- mstade 7y ago
  > That’s twice as long as it took the United States to defeat the Axis powers, twice as long as the Civil War, longer than the time that elapsed between John Kennedy’s “We choose to go to the moon” speech and landing Americans on the moon." Implying the United States defeated the axis powers on their own is a bit rich – don't you think? Disregarding the revisionism of your comment, this seems to be a common argument in discussions like this and I wonder why? Isn't it fairly obvious that those ambitious undertakings were either due to significant political will or being forced by danger of death, whereas repairing a subway most probably carries none of that weight? So those responsible must fight tooth and nail to convince the powers that be of the necessity of the work, probably end up being underfunded anyhow, and of course all this requires the responsible (political) parties care enough in the first place. It seems like a pretty unreasonable argument to me, but maybe I'm missing the point.
macspoofing 7y ago
>It's a little depressing how long it takes to complete projects like this What if this is because those kinds of projects aren't a great solution and yet we're constantly trying to hamfist them in because it 'feels' right. If it was easy and cheap we would have switched long time ago. Solar and wind are expensive, and they stress the infrastructure because of their inherent intermittency. Battery deployments are also expensive to deploy and to maintain (Li batteries will degrade, but then so will wind turbines and solar panels) and no battery project can bridge the gap in the daily and seasonal fluctuations of power output from solar and wind. You end up needing to burn fossil fuels to compensate. You'll burn either natural gas, or coal, or some sort of bio-fuel or garbage or ... whatever else, but you'll burn something. Hydro, geothermal and nuclear are pretty much the only proven power generation sources that can provide city-scale power without fossil fuels - and we're pretty much out of rivers to dam and geysers to develop. And since nobody likes nuclear anymore we're left with no actual solution to carbon emissions. But hey, Green New Deal is a great way to feel like you're doing something!! >Anyone wanna take bets on how delayed and how much over budget they'll be? Sure. I'll take that bet. It will be a disaster. I also don't believe that they will ever deploy 920 MW of battery storage - which would be by far the biggest battery deployment in the world. And if they do, it won't be worth it.
- loudmax 7y ago
  > Sure. I'll take that bet. It will be a disaster. I understand the "bet" here is figurative, but it's pretty sad to bet on the misery of others. We should have realistic expectations for how this project is likely to work out, but we shouldn't give into cynicism before the project has even gotten started. You'll probably end up proven right, but in this instance, I hope you're wrong. You should hope you're wrong too.
  - macspoofing 7y ago
    I take your point. Needless to say, that wasn't my intention.
dghughes 7y ago
Would that not be the Jones Act not so much Puerto Rico? Tesla wouldn't be affected by it but any other project that wasn't US-based would be. I find it amazing such archaic thing as the Jones Act exists. It's like a forgotten laws you sometimes see mocked in newspapers.

hackeraccount 7y ago

Why try a different solution? Why not just rebuild the existing grid more robustly so it can withstand damage better? I'm not saying this wouldn't work but changes in kind are generally riskier then changes in degree.

maliker 7y ago
My guess is Siemens is going for it because if you can get the load/generation balancing right, it costs much less than hardening. Might also be more resilient. Only way to fully harden these systems is underground them at 10 (100?) times the cost. There's also probably some research funding provided by DOE for this because it's a new approach. And if it works, it would be beneficial in tons of other places.
- noahl 7y ago
  Also worth noting that even if you put them underground, you could flood your tunnels, or have an earthquake, or a giant rabid mole attack, etc... I don't read your comment as ignoring this, but I want to point out for everyone that reliability always has tradeoffs about what events you want to be able to handle and how much preparation you want to do / pay someone to do for you.
  - namibj 7y ago
    Our (german) underground cables are waterproof and bite-proof, the latter to varying degrees. Earthquakes are an issue, but iirc they only tend to require a few splices, not a new cable.
durkie 7y ago
the energy mix of electric grids everywhere is changing rapidly to include more renewable technologies, and especially so on islands. puerto rico's grid was in quite bad shape, but it was also originally designed around importing most of its fuel and operating a single (or few) large generator supplying the island. this setup created concentrated points of failure in the event of a natural disaster and also now makes little economic sense given recent advancements in PV and battery technology.

SEJeff 7y ago

Tesla has been working with Puerto Rico quite a bit on this exact thing: https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects-puerto-rico-elon-musk/ https://electrek.co/2018/06/03/tesla-energy-storage-projects... https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/tesla-powerwall-powerpack-puerto-rico-blackout-elon-musk/ https://electrek.co/2018/04/18/tesla-powerwall-powerpack-pue...

xkjkls 7y ago
Have they actually made any progress though? This seems like they just had a bunch of PR statements and empty promises.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/25/560045944/tesla-turns-power-back-on-at-childrens-hospital-in-puerto-rico https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/10/25/560045944... https://futurism.com/tesla-announced-six-new-projects-restore-power-puerto-rico https://futurism.com/tesla-announced-six-new-projects-restor... > A lack of energy resources can have dire health implications, so Tesla will first deploy battery systems at the most critical locations. These include a sewer treatment plant, the Arcadia water pumping station, the Ciudad Dorada elderly community, the Susan Centeno hospital, and the Boys and Girls Club of Vieques. Doesn't sound like empty promises.
  - bduerst 7y ago
    Only a hospital in San Juan received a solar panel deployment. The quote you cited is more promises.
    - toomuchtodo 7y ago
      Citation please.
      - ancientworldnow 7y ago

zaroth 7y ago

Hopefully they were buying some on the hundreds of Sunny Island MicroGrids being auctioned the last two days from the liquidation of DC Solar! I was this | ... (insert hundreds of more dots here) ... | close to convincing my wife we should buy a lot of 90 - 275W solar panels (several of those lots sold for ~$4k). The 25kWh 48v batteries look pretty awesome too, but where the heck I am going to put 2,000lbs of battery?! EDIT: Puerto Rico is installing MiniGrids, which are an order of magnitude or two larger than the MicroGrids powered by the Sunny Islands, but anyway... https://cagp.industrialbid.com/m/view-auctions/catalog/id/3850/ https://cagp.industrialbid.com/m/view-auctions/catalog/id/38...

SenorSourdough 7y ago
From the article, it sounds like they will be using some microgrids as well in areas where geography would hinder recovery after disasters.
jgamman 7y ago
hate me if you want but i think we should call these milli-grids if they are 2-3 orders of magnitude bigger than a micro-grid... i admit there will be some marketing issues.

g_sch 7y ago

This is certainly a bold plan. I wonder (doubt, even) if PREPA will be able to execute it. Segmenting the grid is going to introduce a lot of trade-offs. Smaller segments means that dips and spikes in load are going to create greater differences in frequency, and as such require faster demand response to create the same level of frequency regulation as a larger grid. Renewables such as solar and wind are already not known for being particularly friendly to grid operations as their output can vary quickly and unpredictably. On a smaller grid, these variances are going to be magnified. They also can't be used for demand response by themselves - you can't tell the sun to start shining on demand. Batteries can effectively smooth the load by providing operating reserve, but the proposed 940 MW of battery capacity (I couldn't figure out from the original report [0] how much MWh storage they are proposing -- there seem to be some numbers missing) is significantly larger than any other battery-based grid energy storage plan that I'm aware of. I hope they can pull off this plan, and they are able to make it work for the people of PR as well. [0] https://drive.google.com/open?id=1oupTRdHXRHzc6UuKUdmFp9eWKPR0CZd5 https://drive.google.com/open?id=1oupTRdHXRHzc6UuKUdmFp9eWKP...

duxup 7y ago
>I wonder (doubt, even) if PREPA will be able to execute it. Sadly this might say a lot more about PREPA than anything else.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- g_sch 7y ago
  After looking it up, I discovered PREPA was privatized shortly after Hurricane Maria. So perhaps they have new sources of capital. Though I'm still not sure (or at least not confident) that anyone with a profit motive is going to invest heavily in Puerto Rico's grid.
  - Vivtek 7y ago
    There was talk that Duke Energy was interested in a purchase. I haven't heard anything recently.

malchow 7y ago

Any devs interested in this space -- we have a company working on this and hiring; please ping me. Power networks are currently dumb and dataless. This will change!

worstestes 7y ago
where can I learn more?
mastry 7y ago
Interesting. I spent several years at a small regional power company where we did some initial work on smart meters. That was probably 10 years ago and from what I understand they're still trying to get it all working on a large scale. Are you referring to something more than smart meters?
- malchow 7y ago
  Yep -- I'm talking about ARM Cortex equipped internet connected boxes -- think residential solar, 5G rollout, small cells -- all on a genuine internet of power.
  - cco 7y ago
    One question, why?
    - malchow 7y ago
      Power generators in the future are: 1) more numerous, 2) lower output, 3) more intermittent, 4) more democratized. Therefore communication is more important than it was in the 20th century monolithic model.
hobolord 7y ago
quite interested to hear more, already doing work in this space
g_sch 7y ago