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I used to hold a kind of naive hope that the ham fisted Party would eventually be replaced with democracy. I remember back in 2011 my friends that were placed i

I used to hold a kind of naive hope that the ham fisted Party would eventually be replaced with democracy. I remember back in 2011 my friends that were placed in moderately distinguished positions were sending their kids to Canada to collect foreign dual citizenship, fully expecting the collapse of the PRC in their lifetime. But now I think the Party is too good at maintaining itself. It's augmented by technology like WeChat to know exactly what is going on across the whole country. Access to dissident conversations will make it even easier to tailor the kind of subtle propaganda they're getting very good at. Will the PRC just continue to exist as it is, forever? My last remaining hope is for massive power grabs by xi jinping (already happening), followed by government ineptitude as he ages and underlings squabble, followed by chaos upon his death. Beyond that I can't see any way out.

jdietrich 7y ago
Maybe one day, if China embraces democracy, it might hope to become as prosperous as India. /s In all seriousness, "democracy" is at this point almost meaningless as a barometer of good governance. There are a lot of spectacularly successful autocracies and a lot of dismally awful democracies. In the broad scheme of things, the CPC has done a damned good job of advancing the interests of the Chinese people. China might one day gradually transition towards democracy in the manner of Singapore, but many Chinese people are rightly fearful of the possibility of the collapse of the CPC. The most common outcome after the overthrow of a dictatorship is chaos and economic collapse, followed by a much worse dictatorship.
- paulryanrogers 7y ago
  > CPC has done a damned good job of advancing the interests of the Chinese people. Certainly the nation has modernized rapidly. But at what cost? Western media speaks of famines, proxy wars, land grabs, implicit and explicit suppression of anything/anyone different. (Not saying other forms of governing are guaranteed to do better, but at least with democracies power is supposed to be more distributed.)
- tanilama 7y ago
  Agree. Democracy isn't the end of governance. A dysfunctional democracy is no better than an effective authoritarian government.
- repolfx 7y ago
  This seems to be a remarkably common talking point on HN in this thread, but nobody ever cares to substantiate it with evidence. There are a lot of spectacularly successful autocracies and a lot of dismally awful democracies Where are these "successful autocracies"? I hope you're not imagining that mere economic growth is sufficient for success, because examples like Taiwan, Japan and Korea show that rapid 20th century economic growth in Asia is the norm not the exception. To the extent China has grown fast in recent decades it's only been by abandoning many of the bad policies the dictatorship previously imposed, in favour of policies used by democratic countries. Meanwhile other countries managed to become 1st world countries with clean air, and without throwing millions of citizens into concentration camps. China's performance is thus significantly sub-par compared to its neighbours. The most common outcome after the overthrow of a dictatorship is chaos and economic collapse, followed by a much worse dictatorship Maybe? I'd have to see stats on that. Dictatorships that were overthrown or collapsed and which were replaced by peace and (relative) prosperity in the 20th century: 1. Nazi Germany 2. USSR 3. Japanese emperor system 4. DDR/East Germany 5. Franco in Spain 6. Various other petty dictators in places like Greece 7. Arguably, Turkey, albeit it seems a rather weak democracy
  - dang 7y ago
    If you keep doing ideological flamewar on HN we are going to ban you. Breaking the site guidelines will eventually get your main account banned as well. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- heraclius 7y ago
  I’m not sure where your sample starts but to start from the beginning one has to take into account the Great Leap Forwards, Cultural Revolution, invasion of Tibet, and so on. The ineptitude and corruption of the Nationalists never approached the suffering of the 50s and 60s which were actively difficult to achieve. The sole mechanism by which the party became a force for stability is slowly being eliminated: collective leadership in China is now something of a joke. That’s where things went wrong under Mao; it’s why the “bad emperor” problem exists as a concept; and it’s where things are beginning to go wrong at the edges (Xinjiang, Tibet…) under Xi.
pavlov 7y ago
Imagine a cheap plastic Crocs stamping on a face recognition database forever.
chvid 7y ago
I think China take will the path to democracy most other democratic nations have taken including my own: As the middle class eventually grows big enough it will demand and get political influence ultimately creating democratic institutions (formal freedom of speech, parliaments, elections, referendums) as we have it in the west. It is easy to focus on a single news story and forgetting that China is a much freer society today than it was 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago.
- idlewords 7y ago
  By no measure is China a freer society today than it was 10 years ago.
  - jimclegg 7y ago
    >By no measure is China a freer society today than it was 10 years ago. That's debatable but we know for a fact the USA was freer 10 years ago.
    - NicoJuicy 7y ago
      That is not the subject though
  - theseadroid 7y ago
    really? source please?
    - jimclegg 7y ago
      The FISA court system, Patriot Act & Freedom Act punch enough holes in the 4th amendment to make it useless. Pretty clear that less liberty is the outcome for all.
      - theseadroid 7y ago
        Thanks! My reply is to your comment's parent though :)
theseadroid 7y ago
Maybe there's a third option aside from continue the state quo or convert fully into a democracy? Maybe the party can evolve into something that's more and more benevolent to the people it governs? As a Chinese who emigrated because of the many social problems of China, I'm not sure switching to democracy right now will be beneficial for regular Chinese. You've all heard stories about how bad mannered Chinese tourists are, but those are still somehow better than the average Chinese I'd say. Think about people who still eat shark fins today, who have no problem buying rhino horns or pangolin skins. (there are more extreme stuff, one example: https://www.animalsasia.org/intl/media/news/news-archive/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-bear-bile-farming.html https://www.animalsasia.org/intl/media/news/news-archive/fiv...). If you ever visited mainland China you probably noticed many public restrooms have no toilet paper. Some places tried to put toilet paper in but people would steal all of them right after. I am not sure democracy can work with people like that. I fear it wont. I fear not enough educated/informed people will make democratic decisions that are harmful to themselves. I fear a democratic China will become the next Russia, the next Brazil, the next Turkey. At least the current party has done more poverty fighting than most of the third world democratic countries. (data available on world bank website) Does China have problems? Absolutely. The question is if you really understand what are the problems, before we even start talking if the proposed solutions will work or not. >Will the PRC just continue to exist as it is, forever? My last remaining hope is for massive power grabs by xi jinping (already happening), followed by government ineptitude as he ages and underlings squabble, followed by chaos upon his death. Beyond that I can't see any way out. If that happens, is that a good thing? To you, or some Americans who see China as a foe, maybe. I doubt such a chaos is what the average Chinese wants. P.S. PRC doesn't allow dual citizenship.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- gcb0 7y ago
  I sense from your post that you confuse democracy with capitalism. Also Brazil and Russia are not democratic (right now). Neither have a democratically elected leader.
  - 7y ago
tempguy9999 7y ago
It'll be fine as long as people in bulk are reasonably happy, which equates to the economy doing well which allows china's economy to look and feel good. "look and feel" because there seem to be many proper economists (I'm not) that see china's economy as a facade hiding junk. When we get the big bubble pop which seems to be hastening in, their people may start to feel a lot less comfortable. We'll see then what happens but I don't think it will be remotely nice as their government will start to blame anyone but themselves (well naturally!) and political tensions will rise.
- adventured 7y ago
  Reuters has been running an interesting series of stories on the topsy turvy economy inside of China, focused on Henan: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-property-insight/in-inland-chinese-province-property-bubble-haunts-dreams-of-prosperity-idUSKCN1SR02J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-prope... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-consumption-insig/in-chinas-heartland-once-flush-shoppers-turn-cautious-idUSKCN1SN02T https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-consu... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-socialmobility-in/china-dreams-on-hold-heartland-city-feels-chill-of-economic-slowdown-idUSKCN1SY017 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-socia...
  - tempguy9999 7y ago
    Oh look, a post with details of china's dodgy economic situation and how it treats its people is downvoted. But who would do that? And why??????? So confusing....
gdy 7y ago
"My last remaining hope is ... chaos" That was evil.
joyjoyjoy 7y ago
Massive power grabs can be a sign of weakness, not strength. "kids to Canada to collect foreign dual citizenship" China does not allow for dual citizenship.

jdietrich 7y ago

Maybe one day, if China embraces democracy, it might hope to become as prosperous as India. /s In all seriousness, "democracy" is at this point almost meaningless as a barometer of good governance. There are a lot of spectacularly successful autocracies and a lot of dismally awful democracies. In the broad scheme of things, the CPC has done a damned good job of advancing the interests of the Chinese people. China might one day gradually transition towards democracy in the manner of Singapore, but many Chinese people are rightly fearful of the possibility of the collapse of the CPC. The most common outcome after the overthrow of a dictatorship is chaos and economic collapse, followed by a much worse dictatorship.

paulryanrogers 7y ago
> CPC has done a damned good job of advancing the interests of the Chinese people. Certainly the nation has modernized rapidly. But at what cost? Western media speaks of famines, proxy wars, land grabs, implicit and explicit suppression of anything/anyone different. (Not saying other forms of governing are guaranteed to do better, but at least with democracies power is supposed to be more distributed.)
tanilama 7y ago
Agree. Democracy isn't the end of governance. A dysfunctional democracy is no better than an effective authoritarian government.
repolfx 7y ago
This seems to be a remarkably common talking point on HN in this thread, but nobody ever cares to substantiate it with evidence. There are a lot of spectacularly successful autocracies and a lot of dismally awful democracies Where are these "successful autocracies"? I hope you're not imagining that mere economic growth is sufficient for success, because examples like Taiwan, Japan and Korea show that rapid 20th century economic growth in Asia is the norm not the exception. To the extent China has grown fast in recent decades it's only been by abandoning many of the bad policies the dictatorship previously imposed, in favour of policies used by democratic countries. Meanwhile other countries managed to become 1st world countries with clean air, and without throwing millions of citizens into concentration camps. China's performance is thus significantly sub-par compared to its neighbours. The most common outcome after the overthrow of a dictatorship is chaos and economic collapse, followed by a much worse dictatorship Maybe? I'd have to see stats on that. Dictatorships that were overthrown or collapsed and which were replaced by peace and (relative) prosperity in the 20th century: 1. Nazi Germany 2. USSR 3. Japanese emperor system 4. DDR/East Germany 5. Franco in Spain 6. Various other petty dictators in places like Greece 7. Arguably, Turkey, albeit it seems a rather weak democracy
- dang 7y ago
  If you keep doing ideological flamewar on HN we are going to ban you. Breaking the site guidelines will eventually get your main account banned as well. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
heraclius 7y ago
I’m not sure where your sample starts but to start from the beginning one has to take into account the Great Leap Forwards, Cultural Revolution, invasion of Tibet, and so on. The ineptitude and corruption of the Nationalists never approached the suffering of the 50s and 60s which were actively difficult to achieve. The sole mechanism by which the party became a force for stability is slowly being eliminated: collective leadership in China is now something of a joke. That’s where things went wrong under Mao; it’s why the “bad emperor” problem exists as a concept; and it’s where things are beginning to go wrong at the edges (Xinjiang, Tibet…) under Xi.

pavlov 7y ago

Imagine a cheap plastic Crocs stamping on a face recognition database forever.

chvid 7y ago

I think China take will the path to democracy most other democratic nations have taken including my own: As the middle class eventually grows big enough it will demand and get political influence ultimately creating democratic institutions (formal freedom of speech, parliaments, elections, referendums) as we have it in the west. It is easy to focus on a single news story and forgetting that China is a much freer society today than it was 10, 20, 30, 40 years ago.

idlewords 7y ago
By no measure is China a freer society today than it was 10 years ago.
- jimclegg 7y ago
  >By no measure is China a freer society today than it was 10 years ago. That's debatable but we know for a fact the USA was freer 10 years ago.
  - NicoJuicy 7y ago
    That is not the subject though
- theseadroid 7y ago
  really? source please?
  - jimclegg 7y ago
    The FISA court system, Patriot Act & Freedom Act punch enough holes in the 4th amendment to make it useless. Pretty clear that less liberty is the outcome for all.
    - theseadroid 7y ago
      Thanks! My reply is to your comment's parent though :)

theseadroid 7y ago

Maybe there's a third option aside from continue the state quo or convert fully into a democracy? Maybe the party can evolve into something that's more and more benevolent to the people it governs? As a Chinese who emigrated because of the many social problems of China, I'm not sure switching to democracy right now will be beneficial for regular Chinese. You've all heard stories about how bad mannered Chinese tourists are, but those are still somehow better than the average Chinese I'd say. Think about people who still eat shark fins today, who have no problem buying rhino horns or pangolin skins. (there are more extreme stuff, one example: https://www.animalsasia.org/intl/media/news/news-archive/five-things-you-need-to-know-about-bear-bile-farming.html https://www.animalsasia.org/intl/media/news/news-archive/fiv...). If you ever visited mainland China you probably noticed many public restrooms have no toilet paper. Some places tried to put toilet paper in but people would steal all of them right after. I am not sure democracy can work with people like that. I fear it wont. I fear not enough educated/informed people will make democratic decisions that are harmful to themselves. I fear a democratic China will become the next Russia, the next Brazil, the next Turkey. At least the current party has done more poverty fighting than most of the third world democratic countries. (data available on world bank website) Does China have problems? Absolutely. The question is if you really understand what are the problems, before we even start talking if the proposed solutions will work or not. >Will the PRC just continue to exist as it is, forever? My last remaining hope is for massive power grabs by xi jinping (already happening), followed by government ineptitude as he ages and underlings squabble, followed by chaos upon his death. Beyond that I can't see any way out. If that happens, is that a good thing? To you, or some Americans who see China as a foe, maybe. I doubt such a chaos is what the average Chinese wants. P.S. PRC doesn't allow dual citizenship.

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
gcb0 7y ago
I sense from your post that you confuse democracy with capitalism. Also Brazil and Russia are not democratic (right now). Neither have a democratically elected leader.
- 7y ago

tempguy9999 7y ago

It'll be fine as long as people in bulk are reasonably happy, which equates to the economy doing well which allows china's economy to look and feel good. "look and feel" because there seem to be many proper economists (I'm not) that see china's economy as a facade hiding junk. When we get the big bubble pop which seems to be hastening in, their people may start to feel a lot less comfortable. We'll see then what happens but I don't think it will be remotely nice as their government will start to blame anyone but themselves (well naturally!) and political tensions will rise.

adventured 7y ago
Reuters has been running an interesting series of stories on the topsy turvy economy inside of China, focused on Henan: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-property-insight/in-inland-chinese-province-property-bubble-haunts-dreams-of-prosperity-idUSKCN1SR02J https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-prope... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-consumption-insig/in-chinas-heartland-once-flush-shoppers-turn-cautious-idUSKCN1SN02T https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-consu... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-socialmobility-in/china-dreams-on-hold-heartland-city-feels-chill-of-economic-slowdown-idUSKCN1SY017 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-henan-socia...
- tempguy9999 7y ago
  Oh look, a post with details of china's dodgy economic situation and how it treats its people is downvoted. But who would do that? And why??????? So confusing....

gdy 7y ago

"My last remaining hope is ... chaos" That was evil.

joyjoyjoy 7y ago

Massive power grabs can be a sign of weakness, not strength. "kids to Canada to collect foreign dual citizenship" China does not allow for dual citizenship.