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I think this is hilarious, but probably not going to continue to be true. Yes, a lot of software products fail, but automation is increasingly driving capital g

I think this is hilarious, but probably not going to continue to be true. Yes, a lot of software products fail, but automation is increasingly driving capital growth and replacing labor. The p2p gig economy does cut out a lot of bureaucracy, and AI advances... both of which were hard to predict in '08. The article he cited, Parkinson 1955 (originally in the Economist), on the relationship of british naval bureaucracy to work, is even more interesting imo! http://www.berglas.org/Articles/parkinsons_law.pdf http://www.berglas.org/Articles/parkinsons_law.pdf . It hypothesizes a growth equation for bureaucracy where the only exogenous factor is the underlying population. I'd be curious whether more rigorous research says anything about bureaucratic growth, as we're stretching further towards an era where minimal % of the population has to do any 'blue collar' labor. Maybe in the field of institutional economics?

Supermancho 7y ago
> It hypothesizes a growth equation for bureaucracy where the only exogenous factor is the underlying population Having observed additional layers of bureaucracy develop over time, I have noticed the additional factor of attempting to get blood from a stone. When a the critical metric (eg revenue growth) falls, a perverse incentive of increasing control is pursued after some short gains. Following the pereto curve, this too is less effective over time.
- marmaduke 7y ago
  > attempting to get blood from a stone This is an excellent expression. I have observed this sort of thing as well, especially with regards to deadlines that get pushed back.
yosefk 7y ago
Berglas actually wrote about AI as well (http://www.berglas.org/Articles/AIKillGrandchildren/AIKillGrandchildren.html http://www.berglas.org/Articles/AIKillGrandchildren/AIKillGr...), and suggested to legally limit chip frequency to 1 MHz to avoid AI proliferation, on the theory that from an evolutionary standpoint, rogue AI is inevitable. More recently (during the current deep learning bubble) he wrote a whole book about AI.
gridlockd 7y ago
> Yes, a lot of software products fail, but automation is increasingly driving capital growth and replacing labor. The p2p gig economy does cut out a lot of bureaucracy, and AI advances... both of which were hard to predict in '08. The gig economy may cut out "a lot of bureaucracy", but it's replacing it with other forms of pointless work. I don't think this is more true anywhere than in software. How many AngularJS developers does it take to change a light bulb? Answer: Never mind, we're rewriting the frontend in React.
- mattmanser 7y ago
  I'm interested how you and the GP think it reduces bureaucracy? Surely it's more, now a bunch of "contractors" have to do loads of company admin off the clock. It's just a dodge, shifting bureaucracy and costs from a company onto an individual who's being forced to masquerade as a company. And possibly a flash in the pan, it is certainly possible the gig economy will be an illegal working practice in 20 years time in socially progressive countries.
twic 7y ago
> driving capital growth and replacing labor. The p2p gig economy The p2p gig economy does not drive capital growth or replace labour.

Supermancho 7y ago

> It hypothesizes a growth equation for bureaucracy where the only exogenous factor is the underlying population Having observed additional layers of bureaucracy develop over time, I have noticed the additional factor of attempting to get blood from a stone. When a the critical metric (eg revenue growth) falls, a perverse incentive of increasing control is pursued after some short gains. Following the pereto curve, this too is less effective over time.

marmaduke 7y ago
> attempting to get blood from a stone This is an excellent expression. I have observed this sort of thing as well, especially with regards to deadlines that get pushed back.

yosefk 7y ago

Berglas actually wrote about AI as well (http://www.berglas.org/Articles/AIKillGrandchildren/AIKillGrandchildren.html http://www.berglas.org/Articles/AIKillGrandchildren/AIKillGr...), and suggested to legally limit chip frequency to 1 MHz to avoid AI proliferation, on the theory that from an evolutionary standpoint, rogue AI is inevitable. More recently (during the current deep learning bubble) he wrote a whole book about AI.

gridlockd 7y ago

> Yes, a lot of software products fail, but automation is increasingly driving capital growth and replacing labor. The p2p gig economy does cut out a lot of bureaucracy, and AI advances... both of which were hard to predict in '08. The gig economy may cut out "a lot of bureaucracy", but it's replacing it with other forms of pointless work. I don't think this is more true anywhere than in software. How many AngularJS developers does it take to change a light bulb? Answer: Never mind, we're rewriting the frontend in React.

mattmanser 7y ago
I'm interested how you and the GP think it reduces bureaucracy? Surely it's more, now a bunch of "contractors" have to do loads of company admin off the clock. It's just a dodge, shifting bureaucracy and costs from a company onto an individual who's being forced to masquerade as a company. And possibly a flash in the pan, it is certainly possible the gig economy will be an illegal working practice in 20 years time in socially progressive countries.

twic 7y ago

> driving capital growth and replacing labor. The p2p gig economy The p2p gig economy does not drive capital growth or replace labour.