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Peloton Confidentially Files Statement for Proposed IPO

85 points by coloneltcb 7y ago

codeulike 7y ago
When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920 https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920
- spyspy 7y ago
  My sides. I have friends working there that have tried getting me to apply. Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult and I have little faith in their business model. How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Let alone one that requires a $40/month subscription? It feels the same as Blue Apron - the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work (go to the gym or the grocery store) but still want to do the hard part (actually cook and exercise).
  - kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
    People pay for gym memberships that they never use. They also buy home exercise equipment that collects dust for most of its life. Then you have active cyclists that will splurge $5K+ on a real bike and want a way to ride when the weather makes it troublesome. There is a market.
    - zerkten 7y ago
      There is a definite market, but like gym memberships it is likely to contract during downturns. The folks I know with Pelotons are cycle infrequently and have a more general regime. As a cyclist I'd be interested to know how many get a Peloton versus sticking with traditional trainers? Ignoring the all-weather cyclists it'd also be interesting to know how many ride into the shoulders of the season. Most of the folks I ride with have $5000 bikes and they may ride from March to November here in Philly depending on really bad conditions.
      - alistairSH 7y ago
        DC resident and cyclist. I ride year-round, but in winter I do scheduled indoor group sessions (currently, on Wahoo Kickrs) as the ground tends to be too squishy with the freeze/thaw for the mountain bike (which I prefer to the road bike). I also own a Kickr at home. My spare mountain bike is mounted on it year-round. Through summer, I do the 30-minute workout program on TrainerRoad (rainy days or when I work late, but I try to do most riding outside). My issue with Peloton isn't the money. As noted, like many cyclists, I have several expensive bikes. It's the lack of specificity for actual cycling. And the subscription is just ridiculous, when Zwift and TrainerRoad are $15/month for similar software.
    - rchaud 7y ago
      You could not go to a gym for 3 years and your membership fees would still cost you less than the $2000 bike, let alone the monthly subscription.
      - kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
        People are paying over $100 per class for yoga and spin classes in major cities.
        lawlington 7y ago
        Sure, but you pay for those per session it's not an automatic charge, so they aren't just wasting $100 repeatedly, they're getting (what they feel like) is their moneys worth per session. I'd be willing to bet there's a small amount of people (probably ~5% or less) that sign up for a class during the week and then eschew it in favor of laziness.
        bogomipz 7y ago
        Genuinely curious - which places charge more than $100 per class?
        eropple 7y ago
        I have a side business dealing directly with the yoga and spin industry and I've never heard of this. Can you point me to an example?
      - aczerepinski 7y ago
        There are numerous upscale gyms in my area that cost $200-400 per month. The demographic that is considering a Pelaton is probably buying in addition to a gym membership like that or comparing against it.
    - aw11gwd 7y ago
      I built a website to serve the market that sits between and overlaps Peloton and Zwift. It's a human-curated aggregator/review site with a filter so you can quickly find content by type, duration, featured athlete, sport, recommended use. It's free and you can use your existing equipment or even a Peloton spin bike if you grow tired of paying a subscription. https://slpstream.com/ https://slpstream.com/ The site is still at MVP stage so I welcome any feedback on viability, usability, copy, anything that can help me improve it. I want to make it easier, cheaper (free!) and more fun for people to get their workout done from pros to beginners. I also want to help promote the work of the athletes + producers and give kudos to the brands that support that content production instead of buying display ads based on behavioral tracking! One cool feature apart from the filter is that if you sign up (free, just username/password) you can bookmark favorites onto a personal playlist page to return to later. Another attempt to reduce the friction between thinking about a workout and getting it done. FYI there are quite a few free guided workout videos on YouTube (GCN is my favorite so far) that are great when you need to do interval training. They are super engaging and high quality. For aerobic base training (lower intensity but longer duration) I like inspiring documentaries or sports events and podcasts or audiobooks for runs outside. I'm adding more to Slipstream every day.
  - bstar77 7y ago
    This bike is for people that don't want to go to a gym and/or don't have lots of time to leave the house on a daily basis. You can also finance the bike so the hit isn't so bad. Additionally, there's no extra charge for multiple accounts (up to 10), so if everyone in the house uses it, the cost makes more sense. I work out of home and this is the only way I get consistent exercise. My fitness has gone up tremendously as has my quality of life. It's all about what motivates you to take your health seriously... this bike does it for me and a lot of other people. It's really hard to put a price on that.
    - wlesieutre 7y ago
      Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type). Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using that a lot less now. If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told BoxVR is a better workout than Beat Saber but I haven't bought that yet.
      - mrguyorama 7y ago
        >I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber That's an absurd claim by your apple watch. An hour of expert level beat saber is closer to 360 calories.
        wlesieutre 7y ago
        I have a hunch that it's overestimating because you wave your arms around a lot, but 360 seems like an underestimate. Average heart rate in 70% to 80% range, and I'll have higher than average calorie expenditure because I'm overweight. EDIT - did a comparison against Runner's World's calorie burn calculator, and the calories/hour burn rate lines up with a leisurely 11:30 minutes/mile pace based on my weight. It honestly seems about right.
        corey_moncure 7y ago
  - japhyr 7y ago
    I know people who love spin classes. They're not just buying an exercise bike. They're buying a really nice bike, and membership in a global community of people who also love spin. It really does seem like getting to go to a spin class any time you want, in the privacy of your own home. I have way more than $2k in outdoor gear, because my favorite exercise is trail running and climbing mountains. If riding an indoor bike was my thing, I would seriously consider a Peloton.
    - spyspy 7y ago
      I didn't say there was zero market. Obviously people are buying the things. But this is an IPO we're talking about. I'm questioning the long term growth of what I see as an expensive niche product.
      - bstar77 7y ago
        You made a pretty inflammatory comment: "the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work". He's just explaining that there is a market. It's probably an enthusiast market as well as wealthy people that can make this an impulse buy, but the opportunity for growth is to convince a much more general market to finance the bike and justify the monthly costs like they do their cable/streaming bills. I understand you didn't want to interview for the job, I get not wanting to work on a product you don't care for... I just think your other comments made little sense and seemed more inflammatory than anything.
        spyspy 7y ago
        Sorry it wasn't meant to be inflammatory, brevity is hard. But has any fitness fad ever threatened the cable industry? I don't see anyone cancelling their netflix subscription in order to afford this thing. But based on all the responses claiming there's "tons" of market I'm still inclined to disagree. The market seems to just be people already really into cycling (either outdoors or spin classes) and are currently pouring money into those hobbies. Maybe it's a wildly bigger market than I imagine but if I was putting my money on it, and we're talking about an IPO here, I'd say that Peloton's best growth will soon be behind them and they're trying to cash out while they can.
  - kevinconaway 7y ago
    > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? A lot, myself included. My wife and I gave it to each other for Christmas one year, right before our daughter was born. At the time when we were new parents, it was perfect. We could exercise quietly without waking either the baby or each other, all without leaving the house. Now that our daughter is older, we still use it albeit more infrequently in the summer when we both like to go out and run. However, the digital classes offered in the app are great for running & training. For me personally, it was easy to get stuck in a rut of just plodding along and not really improving my fitness. Having the coaches in your ear telling you what to do works well for me.
  - entee 7y ago
    I am a fairly experienced road cyclist and even though I prefer to ride outside AND have a computer-controlled bike trainer, I would consider one if I had the space. I also have several friends who prefer this to all their other options. 1.) It's way easier to get started up without the faff of setting up your trainer. If you have a dedicated bike+trainer this is less of an issue, but that is going to cost a fair amount (something like $1-1.5K) and take up about as much space, and not be anywhere near as seamless. 2.) The coaching you get is extremely rich compared to TrainerRoad and Zwift, both costing $15/person/month. So if you have 2 people on the same account you pay a bit more per person and get better coaching. They are also branching out into strength and other types of video coaching as part of the package. I initially thought it was useless if you had a trainer for the bike, but I see the appeal now. If the app worked with my wahoo trainer, then I'd very likely buy the service and have it work with my existing equipment.
    - spyspy 7y ago
      I see your point that, for you, there's an appeal. But with so many comments disagreeing with me and saying there's "tons" of market I'm inclined to maintain my point. I think the market (and evidenced by the way it's _marketed_) as it stands is not the general public. It's either people who are already paying gobs of money for cycling classes à la SoulCycle or already dishing out money for their cycling hobby. On the topic of a looming IPO, I don't see their growth continuing to accelerate for much longer.
      - gamblor956 7y ago
        Generally the people that use HN are not the target market for Peloton. In contrast to your POV, I know dozens of people who do already have Pelton subscriptions, or plan to get some. My office is planning to get 2 or 3 bikes for our exercise room. Peloton is too expensive to see startup-type growth much longer, but they've got something better: actual revenue and a path to profitability (if they're not already there).
    - eitally 7y ago
      It's not "better" coaching, just directly engaged instruction. TrainerRoad/Zwift workouts are tailored to specific goals, whereas spin classes are aimed at general fitness... and I've never seen one that lasted over 45 minutes.
  - timdorr 7y ago
    > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Apparently, somewhere around 400,000: https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/peloton-subscriptions-doubled-over-past-year/ https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/peloton-subscriptions-d...
  - TomVDB 7y ago
    > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Tons of them. I've had a bunch of setups where you could plug in your road bike into a stationary setup, with virtual screen and everything, but the hassle of setting it up was always just a little too much friction. It'd be the logical N+1 addition to my stable of more expensive road, cross and mountain bikes. You have no idea how much people are willing to spend on their cycling hobby. If I want a one hour work-out, going to the gym adds 2 times 10 minutes to go back and from. The bikes may already be taken. Music is blaring out of loudspeakers. There's no training included. This is not about being lazy, it's about being rich enough to trade time and convenience for money.
    - alistairSH 7y ago
      I don't understand Peloton because there are smart-trainers available (Wahoo Kickr, etc). $1000 bike. $1000 trainer. $15/month for Zwift or TrainerRoad. And you can take the bike outside when the weather is nice. Or, for a bike enthusiast (or anybody who already owns a bike), the bike is already there. So, it's just the trainer.
      - TomVDB 7y ago
        Twice, I had something like a Wahoo Kickr. Twice, after repeated use, the mounting mechanism to fasten my road bike to the trainer started to fail or became very cumbersome to use. When it did work, the tires on the road bike slipped when putting on high power. In the end, even if it wasn't a huge inconvenience, the hassle of using the system was sufficient friction to stop me from using it, just like the overhead of going to a gym. There is a large market for tailor-made solutions that are perfect for just one application. (See also: iPad, bike GPS computers, 10 different categories of mountain bikes, ...)
        alistairSH 7y ago
        The Kickr is direct mount (remove rear wheel, mount to axle/cassette that are part of trainer). Parts could still fail, but no tire slippage.
  - smacktoward 7y ago
    > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? In an age when wealth is highly concentrated among a few people, you can make a lot of money selling those few people absurdly overpriced luxury goods. Are there lots of them? Not really. But they have all the disposable income, so...
    - Johnny555 7y ago
      Maybe you can make a living at selling $50,000 jewelry to the very wealthy, but I'm not sure you can make much of a living selling a $3000 bike to the 1%.
      - scarface74 7y ago
        You're not just selling the bike, you're also selling subscriptions. On top of that, there is the gamification of competing with other people/yourself.
  - drugme 7y ago
    Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult Difficult for you, maybe. How else do you expect them to find the top 0.01 percent of the candidate pool they're looking for?
    - brewdad 7y ago
      I think OP is saying the interview asked for a much greater skill level than is actually necessary to do the job. The equivalent of requiring a PhD for a job doing Bachelor's level grunt work.
      - drugme 7y ago
        Sorry, I was being facetious. I've seen this kind of screening "process" many times and find it totally ridiculous.
  - aczerepinski 7y ago
    I could imagine getting one if I had some amount more money. I work from home and my gym is just far enough away that I can’t go there on a standard lunch break. In the summer I run or bike outside. A Pelaton for me would just be for lunchtime workouts in the winter... can’t justify that financially but I do see the appeal.
  - HansLandaa 7y ago
    I don't see the value proposition in this business model. You can have a full time membership at gym with in person cycling classes not to mention yoga classes, saunas, pools, weightlifting equipment and cardio equipment for the same price as their subscription.
    - scarface74 7y ago
      I don't have a Peloton at home but I do have a treadmill, elliptical, and some weights and getting a stationary bike is on my list. It is really convenient not to have to go through the ceremony of going to the gym. I can go to the room across the hall and work out anytime in front of my TV. You really don't need a lot of different weightlifting equipment to stay in shape. Just an adjustable weight bench (which I have) and adjustable dumb bells. You can stream Yoga classes if you want. I also don't have to be around germ infested sick people in the winter and wait on equipment.
      - eitally 7y ago
        +1. Honestly, if I go to the gym it's because I want someone else to tell me what to do, and for the social aspect, not because my home setup isn't sufficient (bench, adjustable DBs, stationary bike, rowing machine, medicine balls, slides, resistance bands, TRX, bosu).
        scarface74 7y ago
        The other part of the story is that I spent over a decade as a part time fitness instructor going around to over a dozen gyms during the course of a year and the energy of being in front of a class and the friendships I made were priceless. But as $life_happened and I stopped teaching and moved away from my friends, I really started hating everything about the gym and having to work around the gym schedule. There are times I hang out with my wife until she goes to sleep and then work out after 9PM.
  - velox_io 7y ago
    There's a huge difference between an exercise bike and the real thing. Sure you can add online gameplay, but it is a poor substitute. I'm not sure how much staying power they have. More people seem to like the idea of excerise rather than the exercise itself. Maybe I'm missing something.. I'm surprised that they haven't expanded into rowing, seems like an even better fit. Personally, I think you're better off joining a gym and going to spin class if you don't have good roads near you. Oh, and seeing that they have packages with bundled cycling shoes did make me cringe. That's when you need to go to a bike shop and get some that fit (cycling shoes are designed to be stiff so they don't 'wear in' to the same degree as other footwear.
    - eropple 7y ago
      > I'm surprised that they haven't expanded into rowing, seems like an even better fit. I'm just gonna drop a shameless plug here and note that I recently joined the team at Hydrow; rowing is our business and our machine feels really good--the quality of the product was a nontrivial part of why I signed up. https://hydrow.com https://hydrow.com
- dsfyu404ed 7y ago
  >Sometimes I’ll move the Peloton bike into our gallery so I can spend time with my half gay husband while he reads Architectural Digest wearing combat boots I definitely lol'd. Half gayness notwithstanding, this is like an upscale caricature of a normal evening in my house and lot of households. "Spend $2k on our bike and for just $40/mo you can get in shape while you ignore each other"
- deleted 7y ago
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- bitwize 7y ago
  Yeah, Peloton is basically SoulCycle for people who think $5000 is a reasonable price to pay for a computer monitor.
  - gkoberger 7y ago
    SoulCycle is over $5k/year if you go 3 times a week. A Pelton is only $2,245 (plus a subscription; financing available), and comes with unlimited classes combined with great software/trainers/community who get people excited about riding. You could say Pelton is SoulCycle for people who want to save money and time.
- deleted 7y ago
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- tootie 7y ago
  They're not really unique in that though. If car commercials were real, everyone would be driving around either DUMBO, Brooklyn or peeling out on the Nevada Salt Flats.
- reaperducer 7y ago
  When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts That's some quality entertainment right there. Thanks for that.
KFC_Manager 7y ago
They've executed so we'll on selling a $2000 exercise bike that locks you into their subscription content. Anyone who has bought one can comment on what the alternatives we're when you purchased? The way they position the financing makes it feel like a monthly membership fee to a gym or something.
- semi-extrinsic 7y ago
  Peloton - is it like the Juiceroo of 2019?
  - bruceb 7y ago
    No. Well established with thousands of people paying.
- m_ke 7y ago
  I never considered getting a peleton but we bought this [1] cheapish spin bike on amazon and the quality has been surprisingly good. Makes it really easy to get 30mins of exercise each morning and with the tablet holder I can watch a lecture while doing it. [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07988PF5Z/ref=sspa_dk_detail_3?psc=1&pd_rd_i=B07988PF5Z&pd_rd_w=Ut6z0&pf_rd_p=8a8f3917-7900-4ce8-ad90-adf0d53c0985&pd_rd_wg=3z6NG&pf_rd_r=TVQBTFZ9GESW5DBGTETY&pd_rd_r=3a2f33e3-87ab-11e9-bc46-d3296e3ac307 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07988PF5Z/ref=sspa_dk_detail_3?ps...
- 0003 7y ago
  A bike & start here: https://maximumtrainer.com/get-started https://maximumtrainer.com/get-started.
- ex_pelo 7y ago
  disclaimer: I used to work for Peloton and still own some equity. The company was started with the insight that working out at home is a much more pleasant and effective activity than going to the gym. Pelotons business model is what I think Apple will eventually be forced to adopt. They sell a very expensive, thin-ish margin hardware product and up-sell you on their software + content + some merchandise. The hardware lock-in is real!! They also have a scarily obsessive, loyal and rich fan-base.
ConsumerLed 7y ago
Incredible marketing from Peloton and they builds on the Spinning/Indoor cycling trend that SoulCycle and FlyWheel started. But I can't help but think a lot of people would be better off with a real bike, a smart turbo trainer and an iPad to access a variety of training programs (i.e. Zwift TrainerRoad). Less lock in, the ability to ride outside, and all possible for a similar price to Peloton bike. As a cyclist I've also heard the power-meter readings from Peloton aren't as accurate as those from a Wahoo or Tacx turbo trainer. Still congratulations to Peloton on the success and getting so many people exercising at home.
- pault 7y ago
  As a shut in and professional hobbyist, this is far more valuable if it is engaging enough to get me to use it. I don't want to go get all sweaty and dirty riding a bike outside, and I'm clumsy so I would be terrified of seriously injuring myself (also I live in the middle of a city). This bike works in my climate controlled house, I can make it work with my schedule regardless of the weather, and the ease and availability makes it easier to work out every day without cutting into the few precious hours I get to devote to creative work each day.
- freefal 7y ago
  Agree regarding preferring Zwift and a turbo but the sort of setup you describe seems to appeal to cyclists whereas the Peloton seems to appeal to the spin class crowd, many of who would never consider riding outside. The market is weirdly bifurcated between the two without a ton of overlap.
  - spyspy 7y ago
    > seems to appeal to the spin class crowd This is the reason I don't see this as a good long term investment. The market seems to be people who are already really into spin classes and pay the premiums they demand. To them, having their own equipment and a lower monthly fee will seem like a good deal. But your average gym-goer won't be willing to drop thousands upfront and more per month just on a nice exercise bike.
- 7y ago
bruceb 7y ago
A friend of mine got a Peloton, and I as a good friend razzed him about it a couple times. Like a $2k stationary bike, come on! But now I get it. He is a busy professional who would not always have time to go to the gym. He is also a bit of a special case as he legally blind and could walk fast to exercise but could never ride a regular bike. This being said he has lost a decent amount of weight. Part of it is the instructors, they do a good job of making you feel connected to the Peloton community. You see their friendly faces (who of course are all good looking) every day encouraging you . The instructors get followed on social platforms and there are active FB groups where users talk about their own lives and trade/sell Peloton gear. I half joke it is like a good cult. He has a few friends with accounts and they use his bike and chip in for the monthly fee. This lead to one couple to eventually buy their own. As a side note, the music lawsuit they are facing is a big deal, it is a major part the experience. It doesn't work without the music. So they have to settle that. Would I buy the bike for $2k+? No. but I can see why people do. This isn't Juiceroo.
- bluedino 7y ago
  $2k isn't absurt for an exercise bike once you think about it. These are the same people who buy a $10,000 bike for recreational riding, remember. You are dead on with the point about the instructors. My wife hated biking but they have Pelotons in her work gym, and she loves them, and talks about the instructors like they are real people. People are fitness crazy right now. Crossfit gyms are $100-200 a month, Rogue has whole website of fitness equipment, you could easily spend $4,000 outfitting your house. And how many of us own a $600 blender?
  - inscionent 7y ago
    The instructors aren't real people?
    - bruceb 7y ago
      I get what he means. You feel like they are people you know, not just instructors on a screen thousands of miles away.
bedhead 7y ago
Peloton has better legs than most, but the reality is that every fitness craze has eventually died whether it’s equipment (eg Bowflex) or method (eg Tae Bo). It’s just human nature, this and diet (eh Atkins) aren’t sustainable things with how most people are wired. Peloton will fade one day just like all the others before it as people inevitably get bored with it and doing it becomes a drag.
- shuckles 7y ago
  This one has a subscription business model which at least Bowflex and Tae Bo did not. Lots of the diet crazes did, though.
- sneak 7y ago
  The LCHF diet is not only sustainable, it has changed the lives of many people I know, including people who claim it has improved their mental states, emotional states, chronic pain, and weight gain. I myself was pre-diabetic from the standard western diet of 2000kcal+ daily refined carbohydrates, and have pulled back from the brink by going LCHF. Don’t dismiss it without a little bit of experience. It’s a growing movement, and it isn’t a fad. It has provided real results and real improvement to many, many people, and has spawned dozens or hundreds of successful small businesses.
  - ndiscussion 7y ago
    I read "How Not to Die" recently. By LCHF, are you referring to an "Atkins" diet of sorts? High meat/animal fats, vegetables, low carb, low fruit? I'd be interested in any sources that support that diet for anything other than weight loss - I was under the impression it led to pretty poor health outcomes (apart from bmi/diabetes management)
    - lawrenceyan 7y ago
      I recommend taking a look at how ketosis, and the utilization of ketones as an energy source for the brain, affects cognition for more on potential benefits.
temp129038 7y ago
Not to shill for Peloton (I don't have one), but the success of SoulCycle and Barry's Bootcamp show that there's appetite for $32-$35/class "boutique" fitness classes. If you would otherwise go to either/or 1x-2x/week then the math does work in Peloton's favor when you factor in the class + transportation to/from + removing temptation of buying a $10 smoothie too + any "add-ons" you'd otherwise buy (e.g. water).
- notyourday 7y ago
  Both are in person, not remote.
abuckenheimer 7y ago
Would highly suggest listening to the "How I built This" podcast[1] with the peleton founder John Foley, really great story with usual tech themes like doing things that don't scale and finding a niche but loyal customer base and expanding organically. [1] https://play.google.com/music/m/Dmjr6m5i4h3j6gaysgjd47ryhci?t=Live_Episode_Peloton_John_Foley-How_I_Built_This_with_Guy_Raz https://play.google.com/music/m/Dmjr6m5i4h3j6gaysgjd47ryhci?...
- froindt 7y ago
  I was shocked at how successful he described their mall marketing! Rough quote from when I listened a week or two ago: "If I could get someone to ride the bike, there was about a 50% chance I could get them to buy it" Also rough quote: "People would ask what would happen if we went out of business. Since it was a subscription, there was an annuity value in keeping the platform going. Whoever ended up with our assets after a bankruptcy could use those revenues to spin up an instance of AWS to host the videos. I had a whole line ready to go about it."
flexer2 7y ago
We have a Peloton bike. We used to be Flywheel members, at $300/mo, and that's pretty pricy. The bike pays for itself quickly if that's what you're replacing. The class content is good. It's available anytime. Our friends have one so we can do rides together. And we're not paying $300/mo to Flywheel anymore. Unfortunately we don't have a solarium to put it in, so we are really rubes.
uptown 7y ago
We haven't bought the $2k bike yet, but did roll our own Peloton with a lower-end bike and their $11/month streaming subscription watched on an iPad. It gets you most of the value without the pricey bike, though you miss out on the gamification part of their platform. Both my wife and I are users - and may eventually jump in for the integrated solution. It's a pretty well done offering, particularly once you find a trainer you like with a good mix of music and class structure.
- timdorr 7y ago
  I'm a bike owner, but I've done this as an alternative to the $4k (!) treadmill. I have a ~$900 treadmill with a tablet in place of the screen. It's not anywhere near as nice and you miss out on the leaderboard (a great motivator to push yourself), but I find it's a "good enough" option for my non-riding workouts.
- milesdyson_phd 7y ago
  I picked up a lightly used one from my friend when he was moving across the country (<50% retail). I spin 3-4 times a week and so far (12 weeks in) have been loving it. The bike is nice, but it’s really the instructors that seal the deal imo. My girlfriend has also been using it a lot and she hates working out, so that’s a big plus for her. I know that now I wouldn’t hesitate at the price because I like it so much (will probably need to pick a new one up or at least a new screen as my current one is a gen 1. I assume at some point that might start to be a problem but so far so good)
ftio 7y ago
Peloton's business model is breathtakingly good, but I wonder about the size of their TAM and their ability to have sustained, multiplicative growth in the future. First, the business model. They sell you a $2000+ bike, which includes a year of live classes with some of the best spin instructors in the world. Afterwards, you pay for a $40/month subscription in perpetuity to make your $2000 investment more than a boring (although very high quality) stationary bike. Whether you're hooked on the (excellent) service or not, if you're the kind of person who's willing to drop $2000 on a bike, you're very, very likely to be the kind of person who's willing to pay just $40/month to make sure your bike retains its value (i.e., access to live classes), even if you're not using it that much. Doesn't hurt that in-person spin classes regularly cost $30-40 for a single class. I imagine Peloton's subscription churn is extremely low. This is excellent, and I'm jealous. But, growth. How big is the market of people who are willing to spend $2000 on and have space for an indoor bike? What happens when Peloton captures nearly all the market? What happens when a lower-priced version of Peloton comes in and eats their lunch at the "bottom end" (so to speak) of it? Once you've effectively exhausted the market for selling new bikes (when new customer acquisition slows), you've got three options: find a new market, sell new things to your existing customers, or charge them more for the same things. Peloton's already doing the first two. They're trying to show investors that they can cross-sell and/or establish new markets: they sell a $4000 treadmill. (My theory about the treadmill is that nearly 100% of its purpose is to show the market that cross-sell is possible — I have doubts about whether they're selling). I have extreme doubts about the viability of this. I mean, how many workout machines are you going to put in your house? Rough estimate: this segment is no more than 10% of Peloton's existing customer base. In addition to all this, they could (obviously) also raise prices, but at $50-60/month for the subscription, you start to put those great churn numbers at risk. Either way, really interested to see what they do.
- koolba 7y ago
  > Doesn't hurt that in-person spin classes regularly cost $30-40 for a single class. The first time I heard about the prices people were willing to pay for spin class I thought it was joke. Turns out there really are (a lot) of people out there that will pay $40 to have someone periodically yell at them for an hour.
andrewgioia 7y ago
These types of companies are really interesting to me, I had no idea they've raised close to $1B over 5 rounds/7 years though[1]! Curious what they've needed that for, I would presume they've sold quite a few of these plus the whole subscription model. [1] https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/peloton-interactive https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/peloton-interactive
Animats 7y ago
Here's where the remote trainer concept first appeared.[1] Orwell's "1984". "6079 Smith W! Yes, you! Bend over! You're not trying!" [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCfW6HFP5cI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCfW6HFP5cI
xchaotic 7y ago
I really struggle as a potential investor in this (after IPO). The business is real and lucrative and profitable. This is already so much better than say Uber. But the equities market demands perpetual growth and I'm not seeing enough audience for this in the future, who have not already bought it. In other words I feel it would be a very nice private company but it might struggle a bit as a public one.
- nemonemo 7y ago
  What if the plan includes expanding to new markets, say China or Europe or even West coast? When I used Peloton in a hotel at late night pacific time, it did not have anything live going on until 2am or something. That made it less attractive as an owl type person.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
adrr 7y ago
Why would they do a press release for a confidential filing?
- omarchowdhury 7y ago
  To signal the action and intent to go public.
schwede 7y ago
What factors into a company’s decision to file confidentially or not?

85 points by coloneltcb 7y ago

When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920 https://twitter.com/clueheywood/status/1089699762331217920

spyspy 7y ago
My sides. I have friends working there that have tried getting me to apply. Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult and I have little faith in their business model. How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Let alone one that requires a $40/month subscription? It feels the same as Blue Apron - the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work (go to the gym or the grocery store) but still want to do the hard part (actually cook and exercise).
- kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
  People pay for gym memberships that they never use. They also buy home exercise equipment that collects dust for most of its life. Then you have active cyclists that will splurge $5K+ on a real bike and want a way to ride when the weather makes it troublesome. There is a market.
  - zerkten 7y ago
    There is a definite market, but like gym memberships it is likely to contract during downturns. The folks I know with Pelotons are cycle infrequently and have a more general regime. As a cyclist I'd be interested to know how many get a Peloton versus sticking with traditional trainers? Ignoring the all-weather cyclists it'd also be interesting to know how many ride into the shoulders of the season. Most of the folks I ride with have $5000 bikes and they may ride from March to November here in Philly depending on really bad conditions.
    - alistairSH 7y ago
      DC resident and cyclist. I ride year-round, but in winter I do scheduled indoor group sessions (currently, on Wahoo Kickrs) as the ground tends to be too squishy with the freeze/thaw for the mountain bike (which I prefer to the road bike). I also own a Kickr at home. My spare mountain bike is mounted on it year-round. Through summer, I do the 30-minute workout program on TrainerRoad (rainy days or when I work late, but I try to do most riding outside). My issue with Peloton isn't the money. As noted, like many cyclists, I have several expensive bikes. It's the lack of specificity for actual cycling. And the subscription is just ridiculous, when Zwift and TrainerRoad are $15/month for similar software.
  - rchaud 7y ago
    You could not go to a gym for 3 years and your membership fees would still cost you less than the $2000 bike, let alone the monthly subscription.
    - kevin_thibedeau 7y ago
      People are paying over $100 per class for yoga and spin classes in major cities.
      - lawlington 7y ago
        Sure, but you pay for those per session it's not an automatic charge, so they aren't just wasting $100 repeatedly, they're getting (what they feel like) is their moneys worth per session. I'd be willing to bet there's a small amount of people (probably ~5% or less) that sign up for a class during the week and then eschew it in favor of laziness.
      - bogomipz 7y ago
        Genuinely curious - which places charge more than $100 per class?
      - eropple 7y ago
        I have a side business dealing directly with the yoga and spin industry and I've never heard of this. Can you point me to an example?
    - aczerepinski 7y ago
      There are numerous upscale gyms in my area that cost $200-400 per month. The demographic that is considering a Pelaton is probably buying in addition to a gym membership like that or comparing against it.
  - aw11gwd 7y ago
    I built a website to serve the market that sits between and overlaps Peloton and Zwift. It's a human-curated aggregator/review site with a filter so you can quickly find content by type, duration, featured athlete, sport, recommended use. It's free and you can use your existing equipment or even a Peloton spin bike if you grow tired of paying a subscription. https://slpstream.com/ https://slpstream.com/ The site is still at MVP stage so I welcome any feedback on viability, usability, copy, anything that can help me improve it. I want to make it easier, cheaper (free!) and more fun for people to get their workout done from pros to beginners. I also want to help promote the work of the athletes + producers and give kudos to the brands that support that content production instead of buying display ads based on behavioral tracking! One cool feature apart from the filter is that if you sign up (free, just username/password) you can bookmark favorites onto a personal playlist page to return to later. Another attempt to reduce the friction between thinking about a workout and getting it done. FYI there are quite a few free guided workout videos on YouTube (GCN is my favorite so far) that are great when you need to do interval training. They are super engaging and high quality. For aerobic base training (lower intensity but longer duration) I like inspiring documentaries or sports events and podcasts or audiobooks for runs outside. I'm adding more to Slipstream every day.
- bstar77 7y ago
  This bike is for people that don't want to go to a gym and/or don't have lots of time to leave the house on a daily basis. You can also finance the bike so the hit isn't so bad. Additionally, there's no extra charge for multiple accounts (up to 10), so if everyone in the house uses it, the cost makes more sense. I work out of home and this is the only way I get consistent exercise. My fitness has gone up tremendously as has my quality of life. It's all about what motivates you to take your health seriously... this bike does it for me and a lot of other people. It's really hard to put a price on that.
  - wlesieutre 7y ago
    Semi-related, I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber yesterday (as calculated by Apple Watch's "Other" workout type). Much cheaper purchase and fun enough that I can enjoy playing it for hours a day. I have an (admittedly shitty) exercise bike, and will probably be using that a lot less now. If anyone's looking for a home fitness gadget, give that a look. I'm told BoxVR is a better workout than Beat Saber but I haven't bought that yet.
    - mrguyorama 7y ago
      >I just got a $400 Oculus Quest and burned 1900 calories playing Beat Saber That's an absurd claim by your apple watch. An hour of expert level beat saber is closer to 360 calories.
      - wlesieutre 7y ago
        I have a hunch that it's overestimating because you wave your arms around a lot, but 360 seems like an underestimate. Average heart rate in 70% to 80% range, and I'll have higher than average calorie expenditure because I'm overweight. EDIT - did a comparison against Runner's World's calorie burn calculator, and the calories/hour burn rate lines up with a leisurely 11:30 minutes/mile pace based on my weight. It honestly seems about right.
      - corey_moncure 7y ago
- japhyr 7y ago
  I know people who love spin classes. They're not just buying an exercise bike. They're buying a really nice bike, and membership in a global community of people who also love spin. It really does seem like getting to go to a spin class any time you want, in the privacy of your own home. I have way more than $2k in outdoor gear, because my favorite exercise is trail running and climbing mountains. If riding an indoor bike was my thing, I would seriously consider a Peloton.
  - spyspy 7y ago
    I didn't say there was zero market. Obviously people are buying the things. But this is an IPO we're talking about. I'm questioning the long term growth of what I see as an expensive niche product.
    - bstar77 7y ago
      You made a pretty inflammatory comment: "the market is people rich and lazy enough that don't want do the first half of the work". He's just explaining that there is a market. It's probably an enthusiast market as well as wealthy people that can make this an impulse buy, but the opportunity for growth is to convince a much more general market to finance the bike and justify the monthly costs like they do their cable/streaming bills. I understand you didn't want to interview for the job, I get not wanting to work on a product you don't care for... I just think your other comments made little sense and seemed more inflammatory than anything.
      - spyspy 7y ago
        Sorry it wasn't meant to be inflammatory, brevity is hard. But has any fitness fad ever threatened the cable industry? I don't see anyone cancelling their netflix subscription in order to afford this thing. But based on all the responses claiming there's "tons" of market I'm still inclined to disagree. The market seems to just be people already really into cycling (either outdoors or spin classes) and are currently pouring money into those hobbies. Maybe it's a wildly bigger market than I imagine but if I was putting my money on it, and we're talking about an IPO here, I'd say that Peloton's best growth will soon be behind them and they're trying to cash out while they can.
- kevinconaway 7y ago
  > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? A lot, myself included. My wife and I gave it to each other for Christmas one year, right before our daughter was born. At the time when we were new parents, it was perfect. We could exercise quietly without waking either the baby or each other, all without leaving the house. Now that our daughter is older, we still use it albeit more infrequently in the summer when we both like to go out and run. However, the digital classes offered in the app are great for running & training. For me personally, it was easy to get stuck in a rut of just plodding along and not really improving my fitness. Having the coaches in your ear telling you what to do works well for me.
- entee 7y ago
  I am a fairly experienced road cyclist and even though I prefer to ride outside AND have a computer-controlled bike trainer, I would consider one if I had the space. I also have several friends who prefer this to all their other options. 1.) It's way easier to get started up without the faff of setting up your trainer. If you have a dedicated bike+trainer this is less of an issue, but that is going to cost a fair amount (something like $1-1.5K) and take up about as much space, and not be anywhere near as seamless. 2.) The coaching you get is extremely rich compared to TrainerRoad and Zwift, both costing $15/person/month. So if you have 2 people on the same account you pay a bit more per person and get better coaching. They are also branching out into strength and other types of video coaching as part of the package. I initially thought it was useless if you had a trainer for the bike, but I see the appeal now. If the app worked with my wahoo trainer, then I'd very likely buy the service and have it work with my existing equipment.
  - spyspy 7y ago
    I see your point that, for you, there's an appeal. But with so many comments disagreeing with me and saying there's "tons" of market I'm inclined to maintain my point. I think the market (and evidenced by the way it's _marketed_) as it stands is not the general public. It's either people who are already paying gobs of money for cycling classes à la SoulCycle or already dishing out money for their cycling hobby. On the topic of a looming IPO, I don't see their growth continuing to accelerate for much longer.
    - gamblor956 7y ago
      Generally the people that use HN are not the target market for Peloton. In contrast to your POV, I know dozens of people who do already have Pelton subscriptions, or plan to get some. My office is planning to get 2 or 3 bikes for our exercise room. Peloton is too expensive to see startup-type growth much longer, but they've got something better: actual revenue and a path to profitability (if they're not already there).
  - eitally 7y ago
    It's not "better" coaching, just directly engaged instruction. TrainerRoad/Zwift workouts are tailored to specific goals, whereas spin classes are aimed at general fitness... and I've never seen one that lasted over 45 minutes.
- timdorr 7y ago
  > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Apparently, somewhere around 400,000: https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/peloton-subscriptions-doubled-over-past-year/ https://secondmeasure.com/datapoints/peloton-subscriptions-d...
- TomVDB 7y ago
  > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? Tons of them. I've had a bunch of setups where you could plug in your road bike into a stationary setup, with virtual screen and everything, but the hassle of setting it up was always just a little too much friction. It'd be the logical N+1 addition to my stable of more expensive road, cross and mountain bikes. You have no idea how much people are willing to spend on their cycling hobby. If I want a one hour work-out, going to the gym adds 2 times 10 minutes to go back and from. The bikes may already be taken. Music is blaring out of loudspeakers. There's no training included. This is not about being lazy, it's about being rich enough to trade time and convenience for money.
  - alistairSH 7y ago
    I don't understand Peloton because there are smart-trainers available (Wahoo Kickr, etc). $1000 bike. $1000 trainer. $15/month for Zwift or TrainerRoad. And you can take the bike outside when the weather is nice. Or, for a bike enthusiast (or anybody who already owns a bike), the bike is already there. So, it's just the trainer.
    - TomVDB 7y ago
      Twice, I had something like a Wahoo Kickr. Twice, after repeated use, the mounting mechanism to fasten my road bike to the trainer started to fail or became very cumbersome to use. When it did work, the tires on the road bike slipped when putting on high power. In the end, even if it wasn't a huge inconvenience, the hassle of using the system was sufficient friction to stop me from using it, just like the overhead of going to a gym. There is a large market for tailor-made solutions that are perfect for just one application. (See also: iPad, bike GPS computers, 10 different categories of mountain bikes, ...)
      - alistairSH 7y ago
        The Kickr is direct mount (remove rear wheel, mount to axle/cassette that are part of trainer). Parts could still fail, but no tire slippage.
- smacktoward 7y ago
  > How many people are willing to spend thousands on an exercise bike? In an age when wealth is highly concentrated among a few people, you can make a lot of money selling those few people absurdly overpriced luxury goods. Are there lots of them? Not really. But they have all the disposable income, so...
  - Johnny555 7y ago
    Maybe you can make a living at selling $50,000 jewelry to the very wealthy, but I'm not sure you can make much of a living selling a $3000 bike to the 1%.
    - scarface74 7y ago
      You're not just selling the bike, you're also selling subscriptions. On top of that, there is the gamification of competing with other people/yourself.
- drugme 7y ago
  Glassdoor reviews indicated their backend interview is unnecessarily difficult Difficult for you, maybe. How else do you expect them to find the top 0.01 percent of the candidate pool they're looking for?
  - brewdad 7y ago
    I think OP is saying the interview asked for a much greater skill level than is actually necessary to do the job. The equivalent of requiring a PhD for a job doing Bachelor's level grunt work.
    - drugme 7y ago
      Sorry, I was being facetious. I've seen this kind of screening "process" many times and find it totally ridiculous.
- aczerepinski 7y ago
  I could imagine getting one if I had some amount more money. I work from home and my gym is just far enough away that I can’t go there on a standard lunch break. In the summer I run or bike outside. A Pelaton for me would just be for lunchtime workouts in the winter... can’t justify that financially but I do see the appeal.
- HansLandaa 7y ago
  I don't see the value proposition in this business model. You can have a full time membership at gym with in person cycling classes not to mention yoga classes, saunas, pools, weightlifting equipment and cardio equipment for the same price as their subscription.
  - scarface74 7y ago
    I don't have a Peloton at home but I do have a treadmill, elliptical, and some weights and getting a stationary bike is on my list. It is really convenient not to have to go through the ceremony of going to the gym. I can go to the room across the hall and work out anytime in front of my TV. You really don't need a lot of different weightlifting equipment to stay in shape. Just an adjustable weight bench (which I have) and adjustable dumb bells. You can stream Yoga classes if you want. I also don't have to be around germ infested sick people in the winter and wait on equipment.
    - eitally 7y ago
      +1. Honestly, if I go to the gym it's because I want someone else to tell me what to do, and for the social aspect, not because my home setup isn't sufficient (bench, adjustable DBs, stationary bike, rowing machine, medicine balls, slides, resistance bands, TRX, bosu).
      - scarface74 7y ago
        The other part of the story is that I spent over a decade as a part time fitness instructor going around to over a dozen gyms during the course of a year and the energy of being in front of a class and the friendships I made were priceless. But as $life_happened and I stopped teaching and moved away from my friends, I really started hating everything about the gym and having to work around the gym schedule. There are times I hang out with my wife until she goes to sleep and then work out after 9PM.
- velox_io 7y ago
  There's a huge difference between an exercise bike and the real thing. Sure you can add online gameplay, but it is a poor substitute. I'm not sure how much staying power they have. More people seem to like the idea of excerise rather than the exercise itself. Maybe I'm missing something.. I'm surprised that they haven't expanded into rowing, seems like an even better fit. Personally, I think you're better off joining a gym and going to spin class if you don't have good roads near you. Oh, and seeing that they have packages with bundled cycling shoes did make me cringe. That's when you need to go to a bike shop and get some that fit (cycling shoes are designed to be stiff so they don't 'wear in' to the same degree as other footwear.
  - eropple 7y ago
    > I'm surprised that they haven't expanded into rowing, seems like an even better fit. I'm just gonna drop a shameless plug here and note that I recently joined the team at Hydrow; rowing is our business and our machine feels really good--the quality of the product was a nontrivial part of why I signed up. https://hydrow.com https://hydrow.com
dsfyu404ed 7y ago
>Sometimes I’ll move the Peloton bike into our gallery so I can spend time with my half gay husband while he reads Architectural Digest wearing combat boots I definitely lol'd. Half gayness notwithstanding, this is like an upscale caricature of a normal evening in my house and lot of households. "Spend $2k on our bike and for just $40/mo you can get in shape while you ignore each other"
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
bitwize 7y ago
Yeah, Peloton is basically SoulCycle for people who think $5000 is a reasonable price to pay for a computer monitor.
- gkoberger 7y ago
  SoulCycle is over $5k/year if you go 3 times a week. A Pelton is only $2,245 (plus a subscription; financing available), and comes with unlimited classes combined with great software/trainers/community who get people excited about riding. You could say Pelton is SoulCycle for people who want to save money and time.
deleted 7y ago
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tootie 7y ago
They're not really unique in that though. If car commercials were real, everyone would be driving around either DUMBO, Brooklyn or peeling out on the Nevada Salt Flats.
reaperducer 7y ago
When I see Peloton now, I always think of this twitter thread that critiques their adverts That's some quality entertainment right there. Thanks for that.

KFC_Manager 7y ago

They've executed so we'll on selling a $2000 exercise bike that locks you into their subscription content. Anyone who has bought one can comment on what the alternatives we're when you purchased? The way they position the financing makes it feel like a monthly membership fee to a gym or something.

semi-extrinsic 7y ago
Peloton - is it like the Juiceroo of 2019?
- bruceb 7y ago
  No. Well established with thousands of people paying.
m_ke 7y ago
I never considered getting a peleton but we bought this [1] cheapish spin bike on amazon and the quality has been surprisingly good. Makes it really easy to get 30mins of exercise each morning and with the tablet holder I can watch a lecture while doing it. [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07988PF5Z/ref=sspa_dk_detail_3?psc=1&pd_rd_i=B07988PF5Z&pd_rd_w=Ut6z0&pf_rd_p=8a8f3917-7900-4ce8-ad90-adf0d53c0985&pd_rd_wg=3z6NG&pf_rd_r=TVQBTFZ9GESW5DBGTETY&pd_rd_r=3a2f33e3-87ab-11e9-bc46-d3296e3ac307 https://www.amazon.com/dp/B07988PF5Z/ref=sspa_dk_detail_3?ps...
0003 7y ago
A bike & start here: https://maximumtrainer.com/get-started https://maximumtrainer.com/get-started.
ex_pelo 7y ago
disclaimer: I used to work for Peloton and still own some equity. The company was started with the insight that working out at home is a much more pleasant and effective activity than going to the gym. Pelotons business model is what I think Apple will eventually be forced to adopt. They sell a very expensive, thin-ish margin hardware product and up-sell you on their software + content + some merchandise. The hardware lock-in is real!! They also have a scarily obsessive, loyal and rich fan-base.

ConsumerLed 7y ago

Incredible marketing from Peloton and they builds on the Spinning/Indoor cycling trend that SoulCycle and FlyWheel started. But I can't help but think a lot of people would be better off with a real bike, a smart turbo trainer and an iPad to access a variety of training programs (i.e. Zwift TrainerRoad). Less lock in, the ability to ride outside, and all possible for a similar price to Peloton bike. As a cyclist I've also heard the power-meter readings from Peloton aren't as accurate as those from a Wahoo or Tacx turbo trainer. Still congratulations to Peloton on the success and getting so many people exercising at home.

pault 7y ago
As a shut in and professional hobbyist, this is far more valuable if it is engaging enough to get me to use it. I don't want to go get all sweaty and dirty riding a bike outside, and I'm clumsy so I would be terrified of seriously injuring myself (also I live in the middle of a city). This bike works in my climate controlled house, I can make it work with my schedule regardless of the weather, and the ease and availability makes it easier to work out every day without cutting into the few precious hours I get to devote to creative work each day.
freefal 7y ago
Agree regarding preferring Zwift and a turbo but the sort of setup you describe seems to appeal to cyclists whereas the Peloton seems to appeal to the spin class crowd, many of who would never consider riding outside. The market is weirdly bifurcated between the two without a ton of overlap.
- spyspy 7y ago
  > seems to appeal to the spin class crowd This is the reason I don't see this as a good long term investment. The market seems to be people who are already really into spin classes and pay the premiums they demand. To them, having their own equipment and a lower monthly fee will seem like a good deal. But your average gym-goer won't be willing to drop thousands upfront and more per month just on a nice exercise bike.
7y ago

bruceb 7y ago

A friend of mine got a Peloton, and I as a good friend razzed him about it a couple times. Like a $2k stationary bike, come on! But now I get it. He is a busy professional who would not always have time to go to the gym. He is also a bit of a special case as he legally blind and could walk fast to exercise but could never ride a regular bike. This being said he has lost a decent amount of weight. Part of it is the instructors, they do a good job of making you feel connected to the Peloton community. You see their friendly faces (who of course are all good looking) every day encouraging you . The instructors get followed on social platforms and there are active FB groups where users talk about their own lives and trade/sell Peloton gear. I half joke it is like a good cult. He has a few friends with accounts and they use his bike and chip in for the monthly fee. This lead to one couple to eventually buy their own. As a side note, the music lawsuit they are facing is a big deal, it is a major part the experience. It doesn't work without the music. So they have to settle that. Would I buy the bike for $2k+? No. but I can see why people do. This isn't Juiceroo.

bluedino 7y ago
$2k isn't absurt for an exercise bike once you think about it. These are the same people who buy a $10,000 bike for recreational riding, remember. You are dead on with the point about the instructors. My wife hated biking but they have Pelotons in her work gym, and she loves them, and talks about the instructors like they are real people. People are fitness crazy right now. Crossfit gyms are $100-200 a month, Rogue has whole website of fitness equipment, you could easily spend $4,000 outfitting your house. And how many of us own a $600 blender?
- inscionent 7y ago
  The instructors aren't real people?
  - bruceb 7y ago
    I get what he means. You feel like they are people you know, not just instructors on a screen thousands of miles away.

bedhead 7y ago

Peloton has better legs than most, but the reality is that every fitness craze has eventually died whether it’s equipment (eg Bowflex) or method (eg Tae Bo). It’s just human nature, this and diet (eh Atkins) aren’t sustainable things with how most people are wired. Peloton will fade one day just like all the others before it as people inevitably get bored with it and doing it becomes a drag.

shuckles 7y ago
This one has a subscription business model which at least Bowflex and Tae Bo did not. Lots of the diet crazes did, though.
sneak 7y ago
The LCHF diet is not only sustainable, it has changed the lives of many people I know, including people who claim it has improved their mental states, emotional states, chronic pain, and weight gain. I myself was pre-diabetic from the standard western diet of 2000kcal+ daily refined carbohydrates, and have pulled back from the brink by going LCHF. Don’t dismiss it without a little bit of experience. It’s a growing movement, and it isn’t a fad. It has provided real results and real improvement to many, many people, and has spawned dozens or hundreds of successful small businesses.
- ndiscussion 7y ago
  I read "How Not to Die" recently. By LCHF, are you referring to an "Atkins" diet of sorts? High meat/animal fats, vegetables, low carb, low fruit? I'd be interested in any sources that support that diet for anything other than weight loss - I was under the impression it led to pretty poor health outcomes (apart from bmi/diabetes management)
  - lawrenceyan 7y ago
    I recommend taking a look at how ketosis, and the utilization of ketones as an energy source for the brain, affects cognition for more on potential benefits.

temp129038 7y ago

Not to shill for Peloton (I don't have one), but the success of SoulCycle and Barry's Bootcamp show that there's appetite for $32-$35/class "boutique" fitness classes. If you would otherwise go to either/or 1x-2x/week then the math does work in Peloton's favor when you factor in the class + transportation to/from + removing temptation of buying a $10 smoothie too + any "add-ons" you'd otherwise buy (e.g. water).

notyourday 7y ago
Both are in person, not remote.

abuckenheimer 7y ago

Would highly suggest listening to the "How I built This" podcast[1] with the peleton founder John Foley, really great story with usual tech themes like doing things that don't scale and finding a niche but loyal customer base and expanding organically. [1] https://play.google.com/music/m/Dmjr6m5i4h3j6gaysgjd47ryhci?t=Live_Episode_Peloton_John_Foley-How_I_Built_This_with_Guy_Raz https://play.google.com/music/m/Dmjr6m5i4h3j6gaysgjd47ryhci?...

froindt 7y ago
I was shocked at how successful he described their mall marketing! Rough quote from when I listened a week or two ago: "If I could get someone to ride the bike, there was about a 50% chance I could get them to buy it" Also rough quote: "People would ask what would happen if we went out of business. Since it was a subscription, there was an annuity value in keeping the platform going. Whoever ended up with our assets after a bankruptcy could use those revenues to spin up an instance of AWS to host the videos. I had a whole line ready to go about it."

flexer2 7y ago

We have a Peloton bike. We used to be Flywheel members, at $300/mo, and that's pretty pricy. The bike pays for itself quickly if that's what you're replacing. The class content is good. It's available anytime. Our friends have one so we can do rides together. And we're not paying $300/mo to Flywheel anymore. Unfortunately we don't have a solarium to put it in, so we are really rubes.

uptown 7y ago

We haven't bought the $2k bike yet, but did roll our own Peloton with a lower-end bike and their $11/month streaming subscription watched on an iPad. It gets you most of the value without the pricey bike, though you miss out on the gamification part of their platform. Both my wife and I are users - and may eventually jump in for the integrated solution. It's a pretty well done offering, particularly once you find a trainer you like with a good mix of music and class structure.

timdorr 7y ago
I'm a bike owner, but I've done this as an alternative to the $4k (!) treadmill. I have a ~$900 treadmill with a tablet in place of the screen. It's not anywhere near as nice and you miss out on the leaderboard (a great motivator to push yourself), but I find it's a "good enough" option for my non-riding workouts.
milesdyson_phd 7y ago
I picked up a lightly used one from my friend when he was moving across the country (<50% retail). I spin 3-4 times a week and so far (12 weeks in) have been loving it. The bike is nice, but it’s really the instructors that seal the deal imo. My girlfriend has also been using it a lot and she hates working out, so that’s a big plus for her. I know that now I wouldn’t hesitate at the price because I like it so much (will probably need to pick a new one up or at least a new screen as my current one is a gen 1. I assume at some point that might start to be a problem but so far so good)

ftio 7y ago

Peloton's business model is breathtakingly good, but I wonder about the size of their TAM and their ability to have sustained, multiplicative growth in the future. First, the business model. They sell you a $2000+ bike, which includes a year of live classes with some of the best spin instructors in the world. Afterwards, you pay for a $40/month subscription in perpetuity to make your $2000 investment more than a boring (although very high quality) stationary bike. Whether you're hooked on the (excellent) service or not, if you're the kind of person who's willing to drop $2000 on a bike, you're very, very likely to be the kind of person who's willing to pay just $40/month to make sure your bike retains its value (i.e., access to live classes), even if you're not using it that much. Doesn't hurt that in-person spin classes regularly cost $30-40 for a single class. I imagine Peloton's subscription churn is extremely low. This is excellent, and I'm jealous. But, growth. How big is the market of people who are willing to spend $2000 on and have space for an indoor bike? What happens when Peloton captures nearly all the market? What happens when a lower-priced version of Peloton comes in and eats their lunch at the "bottom end" (so to speak) of it? Once you've effectively exhausted the market for selling new bikes (when new customer acquisition slows), you've got three options: find a new market, sell new things to your existing customers, or charge them more for the same things. Peloton's already doing the first two. They're trying to show investors that they can cross-sell and/or establish new markets: they sell a $4000 treadmill. (My theory about the treadmill is that nearly 100% of its purpose is to show the market that cross-sell is possible — I have doubts about whether they're selling). I have extreme doubts about the viability of this. I mean, how many workout machines are you going to put in your house? Rough estimate: this segment is no more than 10% of Peloton's existing customer base. In addition to all this, they could (obviously) also raise prices, but at $50-60/month for the subscription, you start to put those great churn numbers at risk. Either way, really interested to see what they do.

koolba 7y ago
> Doesn't hurt that in-person spin classes regularly cost $30-40 for a single class. The first time I heard about the prices people were willing to pay for spin class I thought it was joke. Turns out there really are (a lot) of people out there that will pay $40 to have someone periodically yell at them for an hour.

andrewgioia 7y ago

These types of companies are really interesting to me, I had no idea they've raised close to $1B over 5 rounds/7 years though[1]! Curious what they've needed that for, I would presume they've sold quite a few of these plus the whole subscription model. [1] https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/peloton-interactive https://www.crunchbase.com/organization/peloton-interactive

Animats 7y ago

Here's where the remote trainer concept first appeared.[1] Orwell's "1984". "6079 Smith W! Yes, you! Bend over! You're not trying!" [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCfW6HFP5cI https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CCfW6HFP5cI

xchaotic 7y ago

I really struggle as a potential investor in this (after IPO). The business is real and lucrative and profitable. This is already so much better than say Uber. But the equities market demands perpetual growth and I'm not seeing enough audience for this in the future, who have not already bought it. In other words I feel it would be a very nice private company but it might struggle a bit as a public one.

nemonemo 7y ago
What if the plan includes expanding to new markets, say China or Europe or even West coast? When I used Peloton in a hotel at late night pacific time, it did not have anything live going on until 2am or something. That made it less attractive as an owl type person.

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adrr 7y ago

Why would they do a press release for a confidential filing?

omarchowdhury 7y ago
To signal the action and intent to go public.

schwede 7y ago

What factors into a company’s decision to file confidentially or not?