4 ms·

China is going to come out of this trade war stronger than ever.

by StreamBright 7y ago

jraby3 7y ago
Disagree. Think both the US and China will come out weaker.
- majia 7y ago
  Hopefully not. A healthy competition is better than Microsoft monopoly. If China could spend billions of dollars on an open OS and make it compatible with major windows applications, it would be better for everyone. This is challenging because it involves huge amount engineering and testing effort, and Microsoft/US is likely to use restrictive patent/technical standards to contain it. But China is probably the only one with the ability and willingness to make it happen.
- HenryBemis 7y ago
  US will get its head bitten off. China still does business with the rest of the planet. Trump's "us or them" at some point will lead the 'free world' to say a royal "screw you, we go with them". I disagree with the way that Trump administration is handling things. Making more noise to cover the previously-made-noise is a downward spiral/slippery slope, and he's on it. China (aka Chinese People) will not suffer, because they will just not. They won't feel the 'pain' of losing 20% of their income if that happens. People living in the USA on the other hand, they will feel a 20% drop much harder. It is a sprint for Trump administration, but a marathon for Xi's and Vlad's administration. I fear that we haven't seen the worse part yet.
- orwin 7y ago
  In the short term yes. In the long term, i'm not so sure. If no revolution take place in China, they might come out stronger in ~20 years. [edit] Also this trade war is gold for the propaganda. While the wealthy/educated people don't buy it too much, it helps Xi and his government with the "mass", thus strenghtening his power.
DeonPenny 7y ago
The US with its own separate tech supply chain and rare metals and China with an entirely self-sufficient tech ecosystem? Will be interested to see how history works out for each country. It will be game-changing.
- StreamBright 7y ago
  Forcing China to create their own version of anything did not work out for the US. Remember when they banned Intel to ship CPUs for China's supercomputer? The end result: new CPU from China, Intel had to let people go because of the reduced amount of revenue. I suspect this trade war is going to result in a new Chinese OS and some other projects like that. At the end they will enter with these new products to the global market. Essentially unless the US gets every single country to ban Chinese products (which is unlikely) they just created more competition for themselves.
  - ztratar 7y ago
    Source for your claims? Intel, as far as I know, only let people go because they've been diminished due to ARM and Cisco with smartphone processors. What is this new CPU from China? China is quite publicly known to be years behind the US in semiconductor design & fabrication. I would agree with your statement that we'll get a new Chinese OS. Overall this is already in existence w/ WeChat, and all they need to do is go further down into the Kernal. As Android is restricted partially in the future, this may lead to other problems thought. We'll see.
    - StreamBright 7y ago
      https://www.pcworld.com/article/2908692/us-blocks-intel-from-selling-xeon-chips-to-chinese-supercomputer-projects.html https://www.pcworld.com/article/2908692/us-blocks-intel-from... https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/10/us_intel_china_ban/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/10/us_intel_china_ban/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/07/15/china_supercomputer_chips/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/07/15/china_supercomputer... https://www.nextplatform.com/2016/06/20/look-inside-chinas-chart-topping-new-supercomputer/ https://www.nextplatform.com/2016/06/20/look-inside-chinas-c... http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/PAPERS/sunway-report-2016.pdf http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/PAPERS/sunway-... https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/13/500_supercomputers_list/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/13/500_supercomputers_... I am not saying Intel lays off people only because of the Chinese ban but I think it contributes to its troubles if they cannot sell Xeon processors to China.
fbi-director 7y ago
Disagree. The net cost for the past year and the next two years that this 'war' is being played out, will be a large number. The net profit for either side, if measured across the board and not only mentioning we got X amount of dollars in import taxes, will be a large negative number. Things will change, both sides will become stronger om certain points, but the total game is a loss for all involved.
joelschw 7y ago
The ruling government will outlast any presidential administration as well
- ztratar 7y ago
  And what do you think that will do tactically? It doesn't diminish the intrinsic geopolitical positions of both nation-states. Both countries, honestly, should be "fine" without the same levels of trade we've had in the past. Per capita GDP is to the point where trade can be diminished whilst maintaining relatively stable growth. The problem is primarily, IMO, to do with world tensions & world peace.
- orwin 7y ago
  Your current presidential administration is not the norm. Most countries keep highly knowledgable/connected people from one administration to another, without changing them despite different political colors, especially diplomatic administration. Trump did not name enough ambassadors, and everything turned out pretty well, no? That's because US ambassies work pretty well w/o any ambassador. Those are just prestigial distinctions, the workers don't really change. At least in France, there is at least 5 power: the administration is the 5th, and it should not be underestimated.

China is going to come out of this trade war stronger than ever.

jraby3 7y ago

Disagree. Think both the US and China will come out weaker.

majia 7y ago
Hopefully not. A healthy competition is better than Microsoft monopoly. If China could spend billions of dollars on an open OS and make it compatible with major windows applications, it would be better for everyone. This is challenging because it involves huge amount engineering and testing effort, and Microsoft/US is likely to use restrictive patent/technical standards to contain it. But China is probably the only one with the ability and willingness to make it happen.
HenryBemis 7y ago
US will get its head bitten off. China still does business with the rest of the planet. Trump's "us or them" at some point will lead the 'free world' to say a royal "screw you, we go with them". I disagree with the way that Trump administration is handling things. Making more noise to cover the previously-made-noise is a downward spiral/slippery slope, and he's on it. China (aka Chinese People) will not suffer, because they will just not. They won't feel the 'pain' of losing 20% of their income if that happens. People living in the USA on the other hand, they will feel a 20% drop much harder. It is a sprint for Trump administration, but a marathon for Xi's and Vlad's administration. I fear that we haven't seen the worse part yet.
orwin 7y ago
In the short term yes. In the long term, i'm not so sure. If no revolution take place in China, they might come out stronger in ~20 years. [edit] Also this trade war is gold for the propaganda. While the wealthy/educated people don't buy it too much, it helps Xi and his government with the "mass", thus strenghtening his power.

DeonPenny 7y ago

The US with its own separate tech supply chain and rare metals and China with an entirely self-sufficient tech ecosystem? Will be interested to see how history works out for each country. It will be game-changing.

StreamBright 7y ago
Forcing China to create their own version of anything did not work out for the US. Remember when they banned Intel to ship CPUs for China's supercomputer? The end result: new CPU from China, Intel had to let people go because of the reduced amount of revenue. I suspect this trade war is going to result in a new Chinese OS and some other projects like that. At the end they will enter with these new products to the global market. Essentially unless the US gets every single country to ban Chinese products (which is unlikely) they just created more competition for themselves.
- ztratar 7y ago
  Source for your claims? Intel, as far as I know, only let people go because they've been diminished due to ARM and Cisco with smartphone processors. What is this new CPU from China? China is quite publicly known to be years behind the US in semiconductor design & fabrication. I would agree with your statement that we'll get a new Chinese OS. Overall this is already in existence w/ WeChat, and all they need to do is go further down into the Kernal. As Android is restricted partially in the future, this may lead to other problems thought. We'll see.
  - StreamBright 7y ago
    https://www.pcworld.com/article/2908692/us-blocks-intel-from-selling-xeon-chips-to-chinese-supercomputer-projects.html https://www.pcworld.com/article/2908692/us-blocks-intel-from... https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/10/us_intel_china_ban/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/10/us_intel_china_ban/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/07/15/china_supercomputer_chips/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/07/15/china_supercomputer... https://www.nextplatform.com/2016/06/20/look-inside-chinas-chart-topping-new-supercomputer/ https://www.nextplatform.com/2016/06/20/look-inside-chinas-c... http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/PAPERS/sunway-report-2016.pdf http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/PAPERS/sunway-... https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/13/500_supercomputers_list/ https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/13/500_supercomputers_... I am not saying Intel lays off people only because of the Chinese ban but I think it contributes to its troubles if they cannot sell Xeon processors to China.

fbi-director 7y ago

Disagree. The net cost for the past year and the next two years that this 'war' is being played out, will be a large number. The net profit for either side, if measured across the board and not only mentioning we got X amount of dollars in import taxes, will be a large negative number. Things will change, both sides will become stronger om certain points, but the total game is a loss for all involved.

joelschw 7y ago

The ruling government will outlast any presidential administration as well

ztratar 7y ago
And what do you think that will do tactically? It doesn't diminish the intrinsic geopolitical positions of both nation-states. Both countries, honestly, should be "fine" without the same levels of trade we've had in the past. Per capita GDP is to the point where trade can be diminished whilst maintaining relatively stable growth. The problem is primarily, IMO, to do with world tensions & world peace.
orwin 7y ago
Your current presidential administration is not the norm. Most countries keep highly knowledgable/connected people from one administration to another, without changing them despite different political colors, especially diplomatic administration. Trump did not name enough ambassadors, and everything turned out pretty well, no? That's because US ambassies work pretty well w/o any ambassador. Those are just prestigial distinctions, the workers don't really change. At least in France, there is at least 5 power: the administration is the 5th, and it should not be underestimated.