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Couldn’t this be caused by people’s waning desire to buy the next big thing and keeping their devices longer? Rushing for the latest and greatest phone doesn’t

Couldn’t this be caused by people’s waning desire to buy the next big thing and keeping their devices longer? Rushing for the latest and greatest phone doesn’t feel as exciting as it used to. Laptops and TVs last half a decade or more now too.

konschubert 7y ago
It could. That would be nice. But there’s no reason to assume that it’s that. Much more likely it’s simply a normal recession where the purchasing power goes down.
- baxtr 7y ago
  I work in the travel industry in the West and we see a significant drop in sales compared to the last 2 years. That supports your hypothesis since travel is something usually consume every year.
nerdponx 7y ago
I seriously doubt this is happening on any kind of aggregate scale.
baybal2 7y ago
I believe it is more less it. People in my circles who pay big money for serious market research papers showed me some in December. There was a very visible trend of people deciding to downgrade for their third or fourth smartphone. Here is a repost of my post from December: > Very true, I'd say a downgrade is the trend. I saw like 10+ people deciding to switch from "superphones" down to mid-range models, and even dumbphones for their new phones. People who had ultrabooks, often try Atom based notebooks and sufraces. The key deciding factor for such people, I think, is having a good screen and bearable ergonomics (no microscopic keyboards, or batteries.) The data I have access to tell that the "big screen, small CPU," is the category with the biggest year on year growth. Atom based 14 and 15 inchers are selling like hot cookies. > As a person working in the industry, I can say that's a very visible trend. People switch their devices more due to battery and physical wear than actual need for more features. > In that respect, things got very "Japanised" in respect that Japanese cellphone makers are often making new models every season with no real changes other than cosmetic. > Japan is also the only developed market where "dumbphones" ever saw few upwards trends in last
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- Sharlin 7y ago
  What about those billion or so people who are just starting to get the taste of consumption culture, having recently risen from poverty? Those quotes seem very Western-centric.
  - rubber_duck 7y ago
    Doubt they are starting at high end - they are either entry or mid level which is also where the high end is downgrading to.
    - Sharlin 7y ago
      Yes, but it’s not really the demand for high-end stuff that visibly drives factory activity, because the production numbers are so low compared to more affordable products.
      - rubber_duck 7y ago
        Apple alone is one of the biggest HW manufacturers of n the world and they don’t really have mid/low end offerings. The numbers aren’t as low as you suggest.
  - baybal2 7y ago
    > recently risen from poverty? Those quotes seem very Western-centric. Thinking of rich people in Asia only as those "nouveau riches" you see glitzing their wealth in London and Dubai is also a very Western-centric view. You have to remember that "rich foreigner" population you see in the West is less than 1 percent of 1 percent of their home countries' populations, and those usually go apart even from their home country definition of "rich people class." This is even more true for bigger emerging economies: in India and China, an even bigger portion of relatively rich people is completely content with staying at home, and not seeing a reason-d'etre in immigration to the West or imitating Western lifestyles. I was recently on assignment in Kazakhstan, where I rented a room in possibly the most expensive coworking space in the country. All people around used mid-tier Taiwanese brands. And those were the people who drived LC200s or G-Wagons. I had same feeling in Pakistan, where I met people making country's small, budding middle class. All of them successful young professionals, with nice cars, settled down families, and expensive houses in Bahria towns. None of them ever cared of not owning a 20th iPhone or a 5Ghz gaming PC. Most cared more about household appliances, and not having to obsess about specs of stuff they buy. They like practical, simple, well done stuff with some whiff of nice design taste added.
anonymous5133 7y ago
unlikely given consumer spending is at record highs. People are just buying different stuff.
- onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
  Close to 60% of consumer spending is on housing, transportation, and healthcare [1]. Whether by choice or market forces, growth in those categories exceeds "other" categories. Savings -- at least in 2017, the last year I have data for -- turned negative. Considering housing by itself is over 20% of spending, and that >60% of the of population has fixed spending (either own their house outright, have an existing mortgage, are under rent control, or are homeless and don't live in shelters) that only marginally increases in cost per year -- it is STARTLING to me that spending as a whole is growing by 5.3%. Spending on rent only grew by 3.3% and that is largely NOT fixed. Spending on housing grew by 10.4%!!! And almost 80% of that category is fixed!!! It's insane! That means, when people buy new houses, they are spending WAY more on housing than they were before. And it can't be more clear, really. 65% of home buyers are essentially "trading" homes -- that is selling their existing to buy another. If they make up the majority of purchasers, and prices are up 10.4% -- they're likely spending more on housing. A lot more! I'm no economist, but that seems to have every indication of speculation to me. Source: * https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm
Illniyar 7y ago
One of the hallmarks of a recession is also a reduction in consumption. To iterate on that point, if people decided not to buy the latest and greatest phone, you would assume that in a growing economy they'll use the new available income to buy something else.
- AznHisoka 7y ago
  So then more people are saving more money. Isnt that a good thing? After all, someone else just noted that 60% of the US population has less than $1000 in savings. which is a pitiful amount. What do we want them to do? Spend more to keep the economy going or save more so they dont live paycheck to paycheck? Seems like we cant have it both ways.
  - pjc50 7y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift : one person's consumer spending is another person's wages, so an aggregate increase in consumer savings will put people out of work.
    - AznHisoka 7y ago
      Ok that is a theory. But again I am asking: should more people be spending more instead of saving more? Given more than 60% of americans have less than $1000 in savings.
      - yeahitslikethat 7y ago
        Rich people and the government should spend more. Workers should spend less.
  - rimliu 7y ago
    Ok, you save a lot of money and die with a nice sumo in your account. Now what?
    - 7y ago
imtringued 7y ago
People don't spend the majority of their money on TVs or laptops.

konschubert 7y ago

It could. That would be nice. But there’s no reason to assume that it’s that. Much more likely it’s simply a normal recession where the purchasing power goes down.

baxtr 7y ago
I work in the travel industry in the West and we see a significant drop in sales compared to the last 2 years. That supports your hypothesis since travel is something usually consume every year.

nerdponx 7y ago

I seriously doubt this is happening on any kind of aggregate scale.

baybal2 7y ago

I believe it is more less it. People in my circles who pay big money for serious market research papers showed me some in December. There was a very visible trend of people deciding to downgrade for their third or fourth smartphone. Here is a repost of my post from December: > Very true, I'd say a downgrade is the trend. I saw like 10+ people deciding to switch from "superphones" down to mid-range models, and even dumbphones for their new phones. People who had ultrabooks, often try Atom based notebooks and sufraces. The key deciding factor for such people, I think, is having a good screen and bearable ergonomics (no microscopic keyboards, or batteries.) The data I have access to tell that the "big screen, small CPU," is the category with the biggest year on year growth. Atom based 14 and 15 inchers are selling like hot cookies. > As a person working in the industry, I can say that's a very visible trend. People switch their devices more due to battery and physical wear than actual need for more features. > In that respect, things got very "Japanised" in respect that Japanese cellphone makers are often making new models every season with no real changes other than cosmetic. > Japan is also the only developed market where "dumbphones" ever saw few upwards trends in last

deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
Sharlin 7y ago
What about those billion or so people who are just starting to get the taste of consumption culture, having recently risen from poverty? Those quotes seem very Western-centric.
- rubber_duck 7y ago
  Doubt they are starting at high end - they are either entry or mid level which is also where the high end is downgrading to.
  - Sharlin 7y ago
    Yes, but it’s not really the demand for high-end stuff that visibly drives factory activity, because the production numbers are so low compared to more affordable products.
    - rubber_duck 7y ago
      Apple alone is one of the biggest HW manufacturers of n the world and they don’t really have mid/low end offerings. The numbers aren’t as low as you suggest.
- baybal2 7y ago
  > recently risen from poverty? Those quotes seem very Western-centric. Thinking of rich people in Asia only as those "nouveau riches" you see glitzing their wealth in London and Dubai is also a very Western-centric view. You have to remember that "rich foreigner" population you see in the West is less than 1 percent of 1 percent of their home countries' populations, and those usually go apart even from their home country definition of "rich people class." This is even more true for bigger emerging economies: in India and China, an even bigger portion of relatively rich people is completely content with staying at home, and not seeing a reason-d'etre in immigration to the West or imitating Western lifestyles. I was recently on assignment in Kazakhstan, where I rented a room in possibly the most expensive coworking space in the country. All people around used mid-tier Taiwanese brands. And those were the people who drived LC200s or G-Wagons. I had same feeling in Pakistan, where I met people making country's small, budding middle class. All of them successful young professionals, with nice cars, settled down families, and expensive houses in Bahria towns. None of them ever cared of not owning a 20th iPhone or a 5Ghz gaming PC. Most cared more about household appliances, and not having to obsess about specs of stuff they buy. They like practical, simple, well done stuff with some whiff of nice design taste added.

anonymous5133 7y ago

unlikely given consumer spending is at record highs. People are just buying different stuff.

onlyrealcuzzo 7y ago
Close to 60% of consumer spending is on housing, transportation, and healthcare [1]. Whether by choice or market forces, growth in those categories exceeds "other" categories. Savings -- at least in 2017, the last year I have data for -- turned negative. Considering housing by itself is over 20% of spending, and that >60% of the of population has fixed spending (either own their house outright, have an existing mortgage, are under rent control, or are homeless and don't live in shelters) that only marginally increases in cost per year -- it is STARTLING to me that spending as a whole is growing by 5.3%. Spending on rent only grew by 3.3% and that is largely NOT fixed. Spending on housing grew by 10.4%!!! And almost 80% of that category is fixed!!! It's insane! That means, when people buy new houses, they are spending WAY more on housing than they were before. And it can't be more clear, really. 65% of home buyers are essentially "trading" homes -- that is selling their existing to buy another. If they make up the majority of purchasers, and prices are up 10.4% -- they're likely spending more on housing. A lot more! I'm no economist, but that seems to have every indication of speculation to me. Source: * https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm

Illniyar 7y ago

One of the hallmarks of a recession is also a reduction in consumption. To iterate on that point, if people decided not to buy the latest and greatest phone, you would assume that in a growing economy they'll use the new available income to buy something else.

AznHisoka 7y ago
So then more people are saving more money. Isnt that a good thing? After all, someone else just noted that 60% of the US population has less than $1000 in savings. which is a pitiful amount. What do we want them to do? Spend more to keep the economy going or save more so they dont live paycheck to paycheck? Seems like we cant have it both ways.
- pjc50 7y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paradox_of_thrift : one person's consumer spending is another person's wages, so an aggregate increase in consumer savings will put people out of work.
  - AznHisoka 7y ago
    Ok that is a theory. But again I am asking: should more people be spending more instead of saving more? Given more than 60% of americans have less than $1000 in savings.
    - yeahitslikethat 7y ago
      Rich people and the government should spend more. Workers should spend less.
- rimliu 7y ago
  Ok, you save a lot of money and die with a nice sumo in your account. Now what?
  - 7y ago

imtringued 7y ago

People don't spend the majority of their money on TVs or laptops.