8 ms·

I don't think piracy will come back as streaming becomes more segregated, people generally will go with the legitimate market over illegal means as long as the

I don't think piracy will come back as streaming becomes more segregated, people generally will go with the legitimate market over illegal means as long as the fiction is under a certain level. Most Americans would rather pay an extra $15 a month for streaming that to pirate content and go through the "hassle" of getting that pirated content on their TV. How many non-tech people do you know who can mirror a PC or laptop to their TV?

JamesBarney 7y ago
Plex is a really easy way to stream video files from your computer to a chromecast, and I can use my phone as a remote. It works just as well as googe play and better than my current amazon workflow.(Which I can only play from the computer because they won't allow streaming to chromecast)
- dewey 7y ago
  You are not accounting for the important part of sourcing the pirated movies and running a Plex server though? That's what 99% of the people who only want to consume will be struggling with, not the playback client.
  - JamesBarney 7y ago
    Most people have a friend who's technical enough to follow the plex installation instructions or install utorrent.
    - dewey 7y ago
      These technical friends may exist, but I'd guess most of the people would rather pay 15$ / month to some provider than bothering their friend to set them up with a Plex server, maintaining it, figuring out what file to download ("What is this 1080p, 720p?), waiting for downloads to be done, clear out old torrents so they have disk space again. These are all things that are fun to "us" technical people and I don't mind doing them for myself but if you have to choose between relying on someone else to keep your setup running or just paying someone and have a hands off solution most people will do that. Don't forget that this is very biased community here, it makes comments like this sound a bit like the dropbox vs a pile of shell scripts post.
      - JamesBarney 7y ago
        I think you're overestimating the difficulty of plex. There's no real maintenance, you don't have to be very technical to download a file(it's two clicks), and if they don't know the difference between 1080p and 720p they don't care, they've waited for downloads before, and hard drives are so large now you rarely have to clear out them out. My wife uses plex without any problem and she can't stand technology. But besides an issue which comes up every couple of years it's as simple as click and play. And you're 100% right most people would rather pay someone to take that off their hands. But if things get to the point where you need 15 $10/month subscriptions and can only buy certain shows from one of the 15 mobile apps which have varying levels of compatibility with casters, more people will start looking at other options.
        dewey 7y ago
        I have a very well oiled Plex / Flexget / Sonarr setup myself so I know what you are talking about and it's seriously great. If you set it up for someone it'll work very well but if you have to do it yourself, or ask someone else to do it for you and they don't already have their own setup and offer it to you it's not really an option for most people who don't like to tinker with these things in their free time. I think we can agree on that it's great for people who'd like to tinker and maybe offer it to their family members, maybe even with something like http://plexrequests.8bits.ca http://plexrequests.8bits.ca but for "normal" people it's not really an option.
  - chii 7y ago
    popcorntime still exists and works very well. No need to be running your own server.
    - dewey 7y ago
      In some countries (Germany) using public torrent trackers (like what popcorntime is doing behind the scenes) will result in 300+ Euros of fines pretty quickly. You also have to factor the legality in which is a pretty big factor for choosing to pay on top of convenience I‘d guess. Now you also have to explain your non-technical guest how to use a VPN, pay for it and make sure it’s always running before starting popcorntime.
      - kkarakk 7y ago
        i just set it up in the router, all they do is connect to wifi and follow a link. i do it for personal home movies but you could extend the concept trivially for sharing a home library of copyrighted torrented movies
  - zaarn 7y ago
    Sonarr/Radarr can acquire the media files fairly easily, requires not that much setup. If torrent is risky in your country, they also support Usenet, which has most of the recent releases as well (and can be faster in some situations).
    - jsmeaton 7y ago
      Setting up sonarr and radarr is not trivial, especially if you’re hooking it up to Usenet. I spend a couple of hours every year repairing the setup after the NAS has updated the mono version. Finding the right Usenet server and the correct alternative block accounts, and then just the right search provider. Ugh. But it’s magical once everything is setup.
      - zaarn 7y ago
        It's not actually that complicated. There are templates that let you deploy both in a single click on a webinterface. You can use free crawlers for content out of the box. Various usenet providers provide you with picture-by-picture guides on how to setup Sonarr and Radarr. There are single-click Usenet and Torrent clients with VPN integration. Just upload the ovpn file as provided by your VPN provider and you're done. This is all either single click or explained thuroughly and easy to understand on-site or in the products FAQ/Installation Guide. Once you have it all, you can share Plex with others, which is even more easy than all of the above. Your friends and family have access to all the movies for very low cost (up to free).
        Mashimo 7y ago
        Do most people know what a VPN is? I'm new to all of that Sonarr/Radarr/Ombi stuff, but I torrented for along long time. It took me some time to set it up, granted I had to make it work with my torrent client and trackers that where already in place. But before people can start with that they have to inform them self about usenet vs torrent, VPN yes / no and what provider, Plex/Emby or Jellyfin etc. It's a huge time commitment. Then get it to work on your TV and phone. Even if there is a guide to just tells you what is best, I doubt it can be done in the time most people want to invest.
- mprev 7y ago
  Pretty sure that most people value their time and staying on the right side of the law more than a few dollars a month.
syrrim 7y ago
Cable costs ~$60 per month. If the majority of people switch from cable to streaming, we can expect it to reach a similar price (because people have demonstrated that they are willing to pay that much and because existing hierarchies are set up to consume that much money). If a person isn't paying full price, it will be because they cannot access to every show. In either case, it will be more desirable than you are presenting for then to seek pirated content. Systems already exist to easily mirror between computers and tvs. I once installed an app called "popcorn time". This had a small button in the corner that I clicked on to find out what it did. All of a sudden, the movie was playing on my television through my blu-ray player. If I can do this on accident, a healthy portion of the less tech-inclined can do it on purpose.
- bscphil 7y ago
  >Cable costs ~$60 per month. That was once upon a time, when television was the only source of in-home entertainment. If you wanted more you needed to go to your local Blockbuster. Plus in 95% of America you have no choice between different cable providers. Now you have quite a lot of variety - I know literally no one my age who pays for cable. One or two subscriptions seems to be typical and will run you $20-$25 a month. Others share logins to these services with their friends. I don't see people paying $60 a month for entertainment any time soon, but I'm prepared to be proven wrong.
- JustSomeNobody 7y ago
  > Cable costs ~$60 per month. If the majority of people switch from cable to streaming, we can expect it to reach a similar price (because people have demonstrated that they are willing to pay that much and because existing hierarchies are set up to consume that much money). People also need to have internet and a lot of people have the two bundled. If people switch to all streaming services, the cable cartel will raise internet prices and finagle with their caps to gouge even more.
rusticpotato 7y ago
Multiply that by about 10 subscription services each? Each at 7-11$ a month. I see a supernova
- dewey 7y ago
  Didn't people also spent large amounts on one cable provider with different packages? Now it's just a bunch of different providers essentially.
  - voidwtf 7y ago
    The problem is that now they want us to have a cable subscription to watch all our normal shows and a network specific subscription to watch our favorite shows. Look at what they’ve done with Star Trek as an example. They’re going hard on the content gating and distribution channel diffusion. Literally to the point where Plex+Radarr/Sonarr has become the go to for content I’m already paying for through my cable/Netflix/Prime/HBO subscription. Plex works on all my devices no matter where I am. Netflix doesn’t even do that anymore. Not to mention their latest B.S. of making un-skippable commercials so prevalent on these pay services. I’d be fine paying for every channel I watch individually if they’d stop creating their own little fiefdoms of varying viewing experiences each of which is designed to turn the profit screws a little further. Plex puts it all in one place on all my devices and doesn’t fuck me with a commercial every time I rewind 30 seconds to see something I just missed.
    - vageli 7y ago
      > The problem is that now they want us to have a cable subscription to watch all our normal shows and a network specific subscription to watch our favorite shows. Look at what they’ve done with Star Trek as an example. > They’re going hard on the content gating and distribution channel diffusion. Literally to the point where Plex+Radarr/Sonarr has become the go to for content I’m already paying for through my cable/Netflix/Prime/HBO subscription. I'm a longtime Plex+couch potato/sonarr user and wonder what you get from radarr?
      - 7y ago
14 7y ago
My old dad would rather pirate then pay any amount of money and still have commercials shoved down his throat. He feels it is double dipping so to speak. Plus pirates get 4K streams vs Netflix which serves you quality based on what you pay. I feel the hassle was fixed a long time ago. It’s pretty much point and click these days.
- voltagex_ 7y ago
  Where are you getting your 4K content from?
- Freak_NL 7y ago
  > Plus pirates get 4K streams vs Netflix which serves you quality based on what you pay. And based on your operating system and browser. Even FullHD is hard (might still be impossible even) to get if you run a free software stack. Netflix wants you to run the heaviest DRM stack possible (even though their content is available in 4K from your local friendly neighbourhood torrent site).
AngryData 7y ago
I would agree in the past, you needed something like a dedicated media center PC. But these days it is cheap as hell for an old PC, or laptop or smart phone that can handle video just fine. Even a new computer device is pretty damn cheap to have just for your TV. Also, everyone is assuming people are downloading torrents for their media piracy, but everything you can find on a torrent website you can easily find on a streaming site. The only reason to torrent a show or movie over streaming an illegitimate copy is if you plan on watching it a dozen times over and you have limited bandwidth. While legit streaming servers are a bit easier to use, illegitimate streaming websites are only just barely behind that and also contain pretty much every tv show or movie you could ever want to watch. The only real downside I see is the usual lack of closed captioning support. If my choice is to pay money for 4 different streaming services and having to hunt around through each one to find what I want to watch, versus clicking one extra link and closing a pop-up ad for an unlimited catalog, the choice doesn't seem that hard.
- bscphil 7y ago
  >The only reason to torrent a show or movie over streaming an illegitimate copy is if you plan on watching it a dozen times over and you have limited bandwidth. Or you don't want to have to weed through half a dozen ad-filled sites that claim to have the film, but don't, and end up with a 200 MB rip for your trouble.
  - wolco 7y ago
    With some services they cycle through the different copies and stream them. Netflix is easier and quicker. Next comes kodi with an addon. Trying to watch a full series on demand from your cable company. The experience is so much slower to navigate between shows.. this is before we talk about ads.
- dbancajas 7y ago
  maybe just get P4S (Plex for share) and you can get all of that for couple bucks a month. Literally cheaper and no hassle compared to running your own setup.
flukus 7y ago
> How many non-tech people do you know who can mirror a PC or laptop to their TV? Very few, but they can get a portable drive via sneaker net, plug it into their TV (basically any TV made in the last decade) and have enough content to keep them going for months. Some of the slightly more advanced ones might be able to use a PC to copy shows from one drive to another for friends. Torrent streamers are a minority of pirates.
sonnyblarney 7y ago
True, but they won't pay $15/month x 5 different services. Netflix is already iffy in terms of content/quality, without some blockbusters, then it's really kind of b-films and bad tv, the occasional great show. Disney et. al. may not produce enough content to warrant $15 themselves. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. They should take note however, that we are 'done' with commercials.
- dractori 7y ago
  Amazon Prime Video recently added a whole section of content that is free but has ads. Seems to work for Crackle also.
josteink 7y ago
> I don't think piracy will come back as streaming becomes more segregated ... How many non-tech people do you know who can mirror a PC or laptop to their TV? If they already have the streaming apps on their TV, installing the Kodi-app as well isn’t really very hard. Especially with geo-ip restrictions still abundant, many places in the world plain old piracy is by far the easiest option. Also: Why would you assume anyone use their PCs to hook up to the TV these days anyway? It’s not the 1990s anymore.
dillonmckay 7y ago
I have a couple issues with this theory, based on general trends in technology and US infrastructure (barring Elon’s satellite internet). Storage costs continue to decrease, while 1080p is good enough for most people. A 4 TB drive is less than $100. 16TB drives are available. Combined with h.265, that can hold a decent amount of movies and tv shows. These costs continue to decrease, while capacity continues to increase. On the other hand, we see little investment in US broadband deployments or upgrades, and these capacities continue to increase in price, without any benefit. Additionally, the majority of the US that does have broadband, has nothing close to symmetric upload ability. Maybe I agree with you! I think affordable internet could be the straw that breaks the camels back. If you are being charged for every byte transferred, it makes no sense to transfer the same data over and over again, because you enjoy watching it. Store it once locally, and consume at will. The whole idea of streaming is kinda dumb when you think about it, it is basically a poorly implemented remote file storage. It is really a product manifestation of IP laws, not technological possibilities. Probably wasteful from an energy perspective, too.

JamesBarney 7y ago

Plex is a really easy way to stream video files from your computer to a chromecast, and I can use my phone as a remote. It works just as well as googe play and better than my current amazon workflow.(Which I can only play from the computer because they won't allow streaming to chromecast)

dewey 7y ago
You are not accounting for the important part of sourcing the pirated movies and running a Plex server though? That's what 99% of the people who only want to consume will be struggling with, not the playback client.
- JamesBarney 7y ago
  Most people have a friend who's technical enough to follow the plex installation instructions or install utorrent.
  - dewey 7y ago
    These technical friends may exist, but I'd guess most of the people would rather pay 15$ / month to some provider than bothering their friend to set them up with a Plex server, maintaining it, figuring out what file to download ("What is this 1080p, 720p?), waiting for downloads to be done, clear out old torrents so they have disk space again. These are all things that are fun to "us" technical people and I don't mind doing them for myself but if you have to choose between relying on someone else to keep your setup running or just paying someone and have a hands off solution most people will do that. Don't forget that this is very biased community here, it makes comments like this sound a bit like the dropbox vs a pile of shell scripts post.
    - JamesBarney 7y ago
      I think you're overestimating the difficulty of plex. There's no real maintenance, you don't have to be very technical to download a file(it's two clicks), and if they don't know the difference between 1080p and 720p they don't care, they've waited for downloads before, and hard drives are so large now you rarely have to clear out them out. My wife uses plex without any problem and she can't stand technology. But besides an issue which comes up every couple of years it's as simple as click and play. And you're 100% right most people would rather pay someone to take that off their hands. But if things get to the point where you need 15 $10/month subscriptions and can only buy certain shows from one of the 15 mobile apps which have varying levels of compatibility with casters, more people will start looking at other options.
      - dewey 7y ago
        I have a very well oiled Plex / Flexget / Sonarr setup myself so I know what you are talking about and it's seriously great. If you set it up for someone it'll work very well but if you have to do it yourself, or ask someone else to do it for you and they don't already have their own setup and offer it to you it's not really an option for most people who don't like to tinker with these things in their free time. I think we can agree on that it's great for people who'd like to tinker and maybe offer it to their family members, maybe even with something like http://plexrequests.8bits.ca http://plexrequests.8bits.ca but for "normal" people it's not really an option.
- chii 7y ago
  popcorntime still exists and works very well. No need to be running your own server.
  - dewey 7y ago
    In some countries (Germany) using public torrent trackers (like what popcorntime is doing behind the scenes) will result in 300+ Euros of fines pretty quickly. You also have to factor the legality in which is a pretty big factor for choosing to pay on top of convenience I‘d guess. Now you also have to explain your non-technical guest how to use a VPN, pay for it and make sure it’s always running before starting popcorntime.
    - kkarakk 7y ago
      i just set it up in the router, all they do is connect to wifi and follow a link. i do it for personal home movies but you could extend the concept trivially for sharing a home library of copyrighted torrented movies
- zaarn 7y ago
  Sonarr/Radarr can acquire the media files fairly easily, requires not that much setup. If torrent is risky in your country, they also support Usenet, which has most of the recent releases as well (and can be faster in some situations).
  - jsmeaton 7y ago
    Setting up sonarr and radarr is not trivial, especially if you’re hooking it up to Usenet. I spend a couple of hours every year repairing the setup after the NAS has updated the mono version. Finding the right Usenet server and the correct alternative block accounts, and then just the right search provider. Ugh. But it’s magical once everything is setup.
    - zaarn 7y ago
      It's not actually that complicated. There are templates that let you deploy both in a single click on a webinterface. You can use free crawlers for content out of the box. Various usenet providers provide you with picture-by-picture guides on how to setup Sonarr and Radarr. There are single-click Usenet and Torrent clients with VPN integration. Just upload the ovpn file as provided by your VPN provider and you're done. This is all either single click or explained thuroughly and easy to understand on-site or in the products FAQ/Installation Guide. Once you have it all, you can share Plex with others, which is even more easy than all of the above. Your friends and family have access to all the movies for very low cost (up to free).
      - Mashimo 7y ago
        Do most people know what a VPN is? I'm new to all of that Sonarr/Radarr/Ombi stuff, but I torrented for along long time. It took me some time to set it up, granted I had to make it work with my torrent client and trackers that where already in place. But before people can start with that they have to inform them self about usenet vs torrent, VPN yes / no and what provider, Plex/Emby or Jellyfin etc. It's a huge time commitment. Then get it to work on your TV and phone. Even if there is a guide to just tells you what is best, I doubt it can be done in the time most people want to invest.
mprev 7y ago
Pretty sure that most people value their time and staying on the right side of the law more than a few dollars a month.

syrrim 7y ago

Cable costs ~$60 per month. If the majority of people switch from cable to streaming, we can expect it to reach a similar price (because people have demonstrated that they are willing to pay that much and because existing hierarchies are set up to consume that much money). If a person isn't paying full price, it will be because they cannot access to every show. In either case, it will be more desirable than you are presenting for then to seek pirated content. Systems already exist to easily mirror between computers and tvs. I once installed an app called "popcorn time". This had a small button in the corner that I clicked on to find out what it did. All of a sudden, the movie was playing on my television through my blu-ray player. If I can do this on accident, a healthy portion of the less tech-inclined can do it on purpose.

bscphil 7y ago
>Cable costs ~$60 per month. That was once upon a time, when television was the only source of in-home entertainment. If you wanted more you needed to go to your local Blockbuster. Plus in 95% of America you have no choice between different cable providers. Now you have quite a lot of variety - I know literally no one my age who pays for cable. One or two subscriptions seems to be typical and will run you $20-$25 a month. Others share logins to these services with their friends. I don't see people paying $60 a month for entertainment any time soon, but I'm prepared to be proven wrong.
JustSomeNobody 7y ago
> Cable costs ~$60 per month. If the majority of people switch from cable to streaming, we can expect it to reach a similar price (because people have demonstrated that they are willing to pay that much and because existing hierarchies are set up to consume that much money). People also need to have internet and a lot of people have the two bundled. If people switch to all streaming services, the cable cartel will raise internet prices and finagle with their caps to gouge even more.

rusticpotato 7y ago

Multiply that by about 10 subscription services each? Each at 7-11$ a month. I see a supernova

dewey 7y ago
Didn't people also spent large amounts on one cable provider with different packages? Now it's just a bunch of different providers essentially.
- voidwtf 7y ago
  The problem is that now they want us to have a cable subscription to watch all our normal shows and a network specific subscription to watch our favorite shows. Look at what they’ve done with Star Trek as an example. They’re going hard on the content gating and distribution channel diffusion. Literally to the point where Plex+Radarr/Sonarr has become the go to for content I’m already paying for through my cable/Netflix/Prime/HBO subscription. Plex works on all my devices no matter where I am. Netflix doesn’t even do that anymore. Not to mention their latest B.S. of making un-skippable commercials so prevalent on these pay services. I’d be fine paying for every channel I watch individually if they’d stop creating their own little fiefdoms of varying viewing experiences each of which is designed to turn the profit screws a little further. Plex puts it all in one place on all my devices and doesn’t fuck me with a commercial every time I rewind 30 seconds to see something I just missed.
  - vageli 7y ago
    > The problem is that now they want us to have a cable subscription to watch all our normal shows and a network specific subscription to watch our favorite shows. Look at what they’ve done with Star Trek as an example. > They’re going hard on the content gating and distribution channel diffusion. Literally to the point where Plex+Radarr/Sonarr has become the go to for content I’m already paying for through my cable/Netflix/Prime/HBO subscription. I'm a longtime Plex+couch potato/sonarr user and wonder what you get from radarr?
    - 7y ago

14 7y ago

My old dad would rather pirate then pay any amount of money and still have commercials shoved down his throat. He feels it is double dipping so to speak. Plus pirates get 4K streams vs Netflix which serves you quality based on what you pay. I feel the hassle was fixed a long time ago. It’s pretty much point and click these days.

voltagex_ 7y ago
Where are you getting your 4K content from?
Freak_NL 7y ago
> Plus pirates get 4K streams vs Netflix which serves you quality based on what you pay. And based on your operating system and browser. Even FullHD is hard (might still be impossible even) to get if you run a free software stack. Netflix wants you to run the heaviest DRM stack possible (even though their content is available in 4K from your local friendly neighbourhood torrent site).

AngryData 7y ago

I would agree in the past, you needed something like a dedicated media center PC. But these days it is cheap as hell for an old PC, or laptop or smart phone that can handle video just fine. Even a new computer device is pretty damn cheap to have just for your TV. Also, everyone is assuming people are downloading torrents for their media piracy, but everything you can find on a torrent website you can easily find on a streaming site. The only reason to torrent a show or movie over streaming an illegitimate copy is if you plan on watching it a dozen times over and you have limited bandwidth. While legit streaming servers are a bit easier to use, illegitimate streaming websites are only just barely behind that and also contain pretty much every tv show or movie you could ever want to watch. The only real downside I see is the usual lack of closed captioning support. If my choice is to pay money for 4 different streaming services and having to hunt around through each one to find what I want to watch, versus clicking one extra link and closing a pop-up ad for an unlimited catalog, the choice doesn't seem that hard.

bscphil 7y ago
>The only reason to torrent a show or movie over streaming an illegitimate copy is if you plan on watching it a dozen times over and you have limited bandwidth. Or you don't want to have to weed through half a dozen ad-filled sites that claim to have the film, but don't, and end up with a 200 MB rip for your trouble.
- wolco 7y ago
  With some services they cycle through the different copies and stream them. Netflix is easier and quicker. Next comes kodi with an addon. Trying to watch a full series on demand from your cable company. The experience is so much slower to navigate between shows.. this is before we talk about ads.
dbancajas 7y ago
maybe just get P4S (Plex for share) and you can get all of that for couple bucks a month. Literally cheaper and no hassle compared to running your own setup.

flukus 7y ago

> How many non-tech people do you know who can mirror a PC or laptop to their TV? Very few, but they can get a portable drive via sneaker net, plug it into their TV (basically any TV made in the last decade) and have enough content to keep them going for months. Some of the slightly more advanced ones might be able to use a PC to copy shows from one drive to another for friends. Torrent streamers are a minority of pirates.

sonnyblarney 7y ago

True, but they won't pay $15/month x 5 different services. Netflix is already iffy in terms of content/quality, without some blockbusters, then it's really kind of b-films and bad tv, the occasional great show. Disney et. al. may not produce enough content to warrant $15 themselves. It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. They should take note however, that we are 'done' with commercials.

dractori 7y ago
Amazon Prime Video recently added a whole section of content that is free but has ads. Seems to work for Crackle also.

josteink 7y ago

> I don't think piracy will come back as streaming becomes more segregated ... How many non-tech people do you know who can mirror a PC or laptop to their TV? If they already have the streaming apps on their TV, installing the Kodi-app as well isn’t really very hard. Especially with geo-ip restrictions still abundant, many places in the world plain old piracy is by far the easiest option. Also: Why would you assume anyone use their PCs to hook up to the TV these days anyway? It’s not the 1990s anymore.

dillonmckay 7y ago

I have a couple issues with this theory, based on general trends in technology and US infrastructure (barring Elon’s satellite internet). Storage costs continue to decrease, while 1080p is good enough for most people. A 4 TB drive is less than $100. 16TB drives are available. Combined with h.265, that can hold a decent amount of movies and tv shows. These costs continue to decrease, while capacity continues to increase. On the other hand, we see little investment in US broadband deployments or upgrades, and these capacities continue to increase in price, without any benefit. Additionally, the majority of the US that does have broadband, has nothing close to symmetric upload ability. Maybe I agree with you! I think affordable internet could be the straw that breaks the camels back. If you are being charged for every byte transferred, it makes no sense to transfer the same data over and over again, because you enjoy watching it. Store it once locally, and consume at will. The whole idea of streaming is kinda dumb when you think about it, it is basically a poorly implemented remote file storage. It is really a product manifestation of IP laws, not technological possibilities. Probably wasteful from an energy perspective, too.