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The end of Moore's law doesn't bother me too much from a practical point of view. My phone and computer are about as fast as I need them to be. Why it does both
by Causality1 7y ago
The end of Moore's law doesn't bother me too much from a practical point of view. My phone and computer are about as fast as I need them to be. Why it does bother me, though, is how it's an inescapable reminder that there are hard limits to everything, and sooner or later we're going to hit them. The fact we're hitting this limit so fast is damaging my hope for a whiz-bang sci-fi future. I didn't expect to be alive when we invented strong AI and perfect 3D projection systems and retinal display screens and all the rest, but I did hope we eventually would. Slamming into the end of per-volume and per-watt performance before the year 2100 makes me think maybe those things will never happen at all.
- mdorazio 7y agoIt's worth noting that we hit the wall only with respect to silicon-based transistor-packing wafer technology. There are other alternatives (ex. SiGe instead of just Si, memristors, photon instead of electron circuits, etc.) that could allow significant increases in compute capacity. They just haven't been explored or invested in to a large extent because it's been relatively cheap with proven ROI to follow traditional manufacturing paths to their maximum. Other technologies like Li-ion batteries are in the same boat - there are big advancements yet to be made in the broader space in general, but the specific processes, chemistries, etc. being used today are nearing their physical limits. I'm personally still hopeful for a sci-fi future, just based on a series of ramps and plateaus as we progress through the limits of each specific technology.
- kleer001 7y agoDon't despair. We still have economic, energy, and material science boundaries to smash. Just imagine your current phone costing pennies, compostable, and easily chargeable anywhere. Imagine never again worrying about file size or storage capacity. We've got a long way to go and I'm very excited about what the future holds.
- Causality1 7y agoYeah, but the ways I want my devices to improve are more "cultural" than technological. I want easily-rooted phones with expandable storage, 3.5mm jacks, and screens that aren't five times taller than they are wide. I want laptops with non-chiclet keyboards and real mouse buttons instead of clickpads where I can't tell where the right click starts.
- benj111 7y agoWell if 'improvements' stop, then you'll start getting those things. Take Librem, their biggest problem is they don't have millions of $ to throw at the problem, so everything takes longer, so you end up with a flagship phone, of 5 years ago. Now if the state of the art stays the same for 5 years, a 5 year dev cycle doesn't matter, so these smaller companies can compete.
- mntmoss 7y agoOr take current notebooks for example. Thinner and lighter devices in the same form factors were the trend for years, but now that that's hit the point where thin compromises every other feature, there are designs being shown, especially in high-end gaming notebooks, that do more radical things: shift the keyboard downwards for thermal efficiency or to add a second screen; or a screen that detaches and elevates for better ergonomics. There's a lot of room for electronics to become better physical objects, and for the software to mature with those objects. Moore's law also meant that the software got replaced with new software every four years or so.
- sixothree 7y agoIt is a strange and sad feeling to come to the realization that everything is finite.
- tim333 7y agoThe end of Moore's law probably won't stop strong AI. We are already getting to processing power comparable with the brain.
- Causality1 7y agoA normal human brain has thirteen thousand times as many synapses as AMD's Epyc has transistors, each capable of far more complex behavior than a single transistor. It's going to be a while.
- tim333 7y agoI was thinking of Hans Moravec's calculations based on being able to perform the same function such as visual recognition at the same rate and resolution as the brain. He figured about 100 terraflops. https://jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm https://jetpress.org/volume1/moravec.htm Which you can now kind of get in a $7k Nvidia GPU (the Tesla v100). Not saying that has all you need for AGI but the hardware is getting there.
- erikpukinskis 7y agoThe brain doesn’t even do visual recognition though. It does vision-directed action.
- tim333 7y agoI was a bit unclear - I was thinking of the bit in his essay discussing the image processing done by the retina.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- D_Alex 7y agoWhat clock speed do the human synapses run at though?