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You're formulating the problem wrong in your mind. Its true that if you have 182 people in the room all with unique birthdays and you add one more random perso
by admax88q 7y ago
You're formulating the problem wrong in your mind.
Its true that if you have 182 people in the room all with unique birthdays and you add one more random person to the room there is a 50% chance of them sharing a birthday just like you described. But you're assuming you already managed to gather 182 people without any birthday collisions. That's a different problem then the one originally posed. In your case you collected 182 people with unique birthdays and checked the probability of a collision when adding one more. But the real question asks what is if you grabbed those 182 people at random what is the chance that any two of them already share a birthday?
- jypepin 7y agoindeed, that makes more sense this way!
- admax88q 7y agoUnfortunately I don't have any good intuition to share for the Monty Hall problem, as I haven't been able to get an intuitive understanding of it yet. However I did just read about Bertrand's Box Paradox[1], and it's very much the same sort of thinking as the Monty Hall problem, but more intuitively understandable for me at least. [1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertrand%27s_box_paradox
- Dylan16807 7y agoOr even simpler: Wow, 50% per person. And you have hundreds of people. So basically a guarantee.