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I'd never thought about it like this... pretty scary. Our economic ties always calmed my anxiety about a US-China war starting

by hxegon 7y ago

taiwanboy 7y ago
I wouldn’t worry, China is no shape to start a war with US. It is currently facing 3 wars: political leadership - with Xi faction vs the old guards. Internal population, with unrests in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and economically suffering northeast and western region. And neighbors, with Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and India, over South sea. The CCP doesn’t have the financial or political capital to fight any of the wars currently. A 4th war with the economic superpowers - US, EU, Japan would end with so quickly with simply an economic sanction.
- HillaryBriss 7y ago
  OTOH, we can say something similar about the US. Trump has been battling investigations and possible impeachment hearings since day one. Partisanship amongst voters is at a 40 year high. And the US is waging the longest war in its entire history, with no proper resolution in sight. Plus -- who knows? -- it might just start a brand new war against Iran. The last thing the US needs is a military war with China.
  - tw04 7y ago
    A war with China won't be a war fought on the ground. It will almost assuredly be a war of navies and cyber. The US can handle both in perpetuity. Neither country wants to use nukes and the US has 0 interest in occupying China.
    - HillaryBriss 7y ago
      > The US can handle both in perpetuity How can we be so sure?
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
  - foldingmoney 7y ago
    Unfortunately I suspect the Chinese -- coming from a culture with one party and zero dissent -- take all the anti-Trump rhetoric in the American media as a sign of weakness, and this emboldens them to drag out a trade war that they have no hope of winning.
arcticfox 7y ago
Economic ties are great and all, but compared to the absolute insanity of opening up the possibility of MAD I don't think they're really all that important when we're talking about a US-China war. They might do something to limit proxy wars, but if we're already cutting some ties over some bullet points on a trade deal, I can't imagine they would have deterred any type of at all war anyways.
- hxegon 7y ago
  yeah starting to realize how fragile they were in the first place but I guess I'll know more as we see it play out
bwb 7y ago
That is the terrifying situation we are in... where the current batch of populist authoritarians are starting to tear down the economic spiderweb that connects most of the world. This was a system created with the intention of making another war so costly/impossible it was avoided. The EU arose from this concept. This isn't something I am afraid of in the next 5 years, but it is something I am really afraid of over the next 25. Unless China gets crazy and goes after Tawain for posturing. I don't fully blame the populist either for their recent craziness, not enough was done to keep society "fair" and to provide a strong social safety net during the wild ride of globalization. The EU did a better job but is now under migrant pressure and fear-mongering, and the USA is imploding under health care, the cost of having/raising kids, and the middle and lower income brackets having 40 years of degraded earnings power. Hopefully, we can sort it out with some good voting and a political realignment in the USA.

I'd never thought about it like this... pretty scary. Our economic ties always calmed my anxiety about a US-China war starting

by hxegon 7y ago

I'd never thought about it like this... pretty scary. Our economic ties always calmed my anxiety about a US-China war starting

taiwanboy 7y ago

I wouldn’t worry, China is no shape to start a war with US. It is currently facing 3 wars: political leadership - with Xi faction vs the old guards. Internal population, with unrests in Xinjiang, Tibet, Hong Kong, and economically suffering northeast and western region. And neighbors, with Taiwan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, and India, over South sea. The CCP doesn’t have the financial or political capital to fight any of the wars currently. A 4th war with the economic superpowers - US, EU, Japan would end with so quickly with simply an economic sanction.

HillaryBriss 7y ago
OTOH, we can say something similar about the US. Trump has been battling investigations and possible impeachment hearings since day one. Partisanship amongst voters is at a 40 year high. And the US is waging the longest war in its entire history, with no proper resolution in sight. Plus -- who knows? -- it might just start a brand new war against Iran. The last thing the US needs is a military war with China.
- tw04 7y ago
  A war with China won't be a war fought on the ground. It will almost assuredly be a war of navies and cyber. The US can handle both in perpetuity. Neither country wants to use nukes and the US has 0 interest in occupying China.
  - HillaryBriss 7y ago
    > The US can handle both in perpetuity How can we be so sure?
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- foldingmoney 7y ago
  Unfortunately I suspect the Chinese -- coming from a culture with one party and zero dissent -- take all the anti-Trump rhetoric in the American media as a sign of weakness, and this emboldens them to drag out a trade war that they have no hope of winning.

arcticfox 7y ago

Economic ties are great and all, but compared to the absolute insanity of opening up the possibility of MAD I don't think they're really all that important when we're talking about a US-China war. They might do something to limit proxy wars, but if we're already cutting some ties over some bullet points on a trade deal, I can't imagine they would have deterred any type of at all war anyways.

hxegon 7y ago
yeah starting to realize how fragile they were in the first place but I guess I'll know more as we see it play out

bwb 7y ago

That is the terrifying situation we are in... where the current batch of populist authoritarians are starting to tear down the economic spiderweb that connects most of the world. This was a system created with the intention of making another war so costly/impossible it was avoided. The EU arose from this concept. This isn't something I am afraid of in the next 5 years, but it is something I am really afraid of over the next 25. Unless China gets crazy and goes after Tawain for posturing. I don't fully blame the populist either for their recent craziness, not enough was done to keep society "fair" and to provide a strong social safety net during the wild ride of globalization. The EU did a better job but is now under migrant pressure and fear-mongering, and the USA is imploding under health care, the cost of having/raising kids, and the middle and lower income brackets having 40 years of degraded earnings power. Hopefully, we can sort it out with some good voting and a political realignment in the USA.